ASU Scholarship Showcase
This growing collection consists of scholarly works authored by ASU-affiliated faculty, staff, and community members, and it contains many open access articles. ASU-affiliated authors are encouraged to Share Your Work in KEEP.
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- Language: English
- Creators: Chowell-Puente, Gerardo
- Creators: Aoki, Toshihiro
Background:
Theory suggests that individual behavioral responses impact the spread of flu-like illnesses, but this has been difficult to empirically characterize. Social distancing is an important component of behavioral response, though analyses have been limited by a lack of behavioral data. Our objective is to use media data to characterize social distancing behavior in order to empirically inform explanatory and predictive epidemiological models.
Methods:
We use data on variation in home television viewing as a proxy for variation in time spent in the home and, by extension, contact. This behavioral proxy is imperfect but appealing since information on a rich and representative sample is collected using consistent techniques across time and most major cities. We study the April-May 2009 outbreak of A/H1N1 in Central Mexico and examine the dynamic behavioral response in aggregate and contrast the observed patterns of various demographic subgroups. We develop and calibrate a dynamic behavioral model of disease transmission informed by the proxy data on daily variation in contact rates and compare it to a standard (non-adaptive) model and a fixed effects model that crudely captures behavior.
Results:
We find that after a demonstrable initial behavioral response (consistent with social distancing) at the onset of the outbreak, there was attenuation in the response before the conclusion of the public health intervention. We find substantial differences in the behavioral response across age subgroups and socioeconomic levels. We also find that the dynamic behavioral and fixed effects transmission models better account for variation in new confirmed cases, generate more stable estimates of the baseline rate of transmission over time and predict the number of new cases over a short horizon with substantially less error.
Conclusions:
Results suggest that A/H1N1 had an innate transmission potential greater than previously thought but this was masked by behavioral responses. Observed differences in behavioral response across demographic groups indicate a potential benefit from targeting social distancing outreach efforts.
Background: Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5]), analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, or intrinsic differences in disease transmission [6]. Additional studies elucidating the determinants of disease severity globally are warranted to guide prevention efforts in future influenza pandemics.
In Mexico, the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic was characterized by a three-wave pattern occurring in the spring, summer, and fall of 2009 with substantial geographical heterogeneity [7]. A recent study suggests that Mexico experienced high excess mortality burden during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic relative to other countries [6]. However, an assessment of potential factors that contributed to the relatively high pandemic death toll in Mexico are lacking. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing a large series of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases, hospitalizations, and deaths monitored by the Mexican Social Security medical system during April 1 through December 31, 2009 in Mexico. In particular, we quantify the association between disease severity, hospital admission delays, and neuraminidase inhibitor use by demographic characteristics, pandemic wave, and geographic regions of Mexico.
Methods: We analyzed a large series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 influenza cases from a prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security system, April-December 2009. We considered a spectrum of disease severity encompassing outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, and recorded demographic and geographic information on individual patients. We assessed the impact of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and hospital admission delay (≤ > 2 days after disease onset) on the risk of death by multivariate logistic regression.
Results: Approximately 50% of all A/H1N1-positive patients received antiviral medication during the Spring and Summer 2009 pandemic waves in Mexico while only 9% of A/H1N1 cases received antiviral medications during the fall wave (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for age, gender, and geography, antiviral treatment significantly reduced the risk of death (OR = 0.52 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.90)) while longer hospital admission delays increased the risk of death by 2.8-fold (95% CI: 2.25, 3.41).
Conclusions: Our findings underscore the potential impact of decreasing admission delays and increasing antiviral use to mitigate the mortality burden of future influenza pandemics.
The compositional dependence of the lowest direct and indirect band gaps in Ge1-ySny alloys has been determined from room-temperature photoluminescence measurements. This technique is particularly attractive for a comparison of the two transitions because distinct features in the spectra can be associated with the direct and indirect gaps. However, detailed modeling of these room temperature spectra is required to extract the band gap values with the high accuracy required to determine the Sn concentration yc at which the alloy becomes a direct gap semiconductor. For the direct gap, this is accomplished using a microscopic model that allows the determination of direct gap energies with meV accuracy. For the indirect gap, it is shown that current theoretical models are inadequate to describe the emission properties of systems with close indirect and direct transitions. Accordingly, an ad hoc procedure is used to extract the indirect gap energies from the data. For y < 0.1 the resulting direct gap compositional dependence is given by ΔE0 = −(3.57 ± 0.06)y (in eV). For the indirect gap, the corresponding expression is ΔEind = −(1.64 ± 0.10)y (in eV). If a quadratic function of composition is used to express the two transition energies over the entire compositional range 0 ≤ y ≤ 1, the quadratic (bowing) coefficients are found to be b0 = 2.46 ± 0.06 eV (for E0) and bind = 1.03 ± 0.11 eV (for Eind). These results imply a crossover concentration yc = $0.073 [+0.007 over -0.006], much lower than early theoretical predictions based on the virtual crystal approximation, but in better agreement with predictions based on large atomic supercells.
Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.
Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.
Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.
Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.
Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.
Earth-abundant sustainable inorganic thin-film solar cells, independent of precious elements, pivot on a marginal material phase space targeting specific compounds. Advanced materials characterization efforts are necessary to expose the roles of microstructure, chemistry, and interfaces. Herein, the earth-abundant solar cell device, Cu2ZnSnS(4-x)Sex, is reported, which shows a high abundance of secondary phases compared to similarly grown Cu2ZnSnSe4.
The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and calibrate the model to ZIKV epidemic data from Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Parameter estimates yielded a basic reproduction number R0 = 2.055 (95% CI: 0.523–6.300), in which the percentage contribution of sexual transmission is 3.044% (95% CI: 0.123–45.73). Our sensitivity analyses indicate that R0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. Prevention and control efforts against ZIKV should target both the mosquito-borne and sexual transmission routes.
We present two-dimensional Mg(OH)2 sheets and their vertical heterojunctions with CVD-MoS2 for the first time as flexible 2D insulators with anomalous lattice vibration and chemical and physical properties. New hydrothermal crystal growth technique enabled isolation of environmentally stable monolayer Mg(OH)2 sheets. Raman spectroscopy and vibrational calculations reveal that the lattice vibrations of Mg(OH)2 have fundamentally different signature peaks and dimensionality effects compared to other 2D material systems known to date. Sub-wavelength electron energy-loss spectroscopy measurements and theoretical calculations show that Mg(OH)2 is a 6 eV direct-gap insulator in 2D, and its optical band gap displays strong band renormalization effects from monolayer to bulk, marking the first experimental confirmation of confinement effects in 2D insulators. Interestingly, 2D-Mg(OH)2 sheets possess rather strong surface polarization (charge) effects which is in contrast to electrically neutral h-BN materials. Using 2D-Mg(OH)2 sheets together with CVD-MoS2 in the vertical stacking shows that a strong change transfer occurs from n-doped CVD-MoS2 sheets to Mg(OH)2, naturally depleting the semiconductor, pushing towards intrinsic doping limit and enhancing overall optical performance of 2D semiconductors. Results not only establish unusual confinement effects in 2D-Mg(OH)2, but also offer novel 2D-insulating material with unique physical, vibrational, and chemical properties for potential applications in flexible optoelectronics.
Transition metal trichalcogenides form a class of layered materials with strong in-plane anisotropy. For example, titanium trisulfide (TiS3) whiskers are made out of weakly interacting TiS3 layers, where each layer is made of weakly interacting quasi-one-dimensional chains extending along the b axis. Here we establish the unusual vibrational properties of TiS3 both experimentally and theoretically. Unlike other two-dimensional systems, the Raman active peaks of TiS3 have only out-of-plane vibrational modes, and interestingly some of these vibrations involve unique rigid-chain vibrations and S–S molecular oscillations. High-pressure Raman studies further reveal that the AgS-S S-S molecular mode has an unconventional negative pressure dependence, whereas other peaks stiffen as anticipated. Various vibrational modes are doubly degenerate at ambient pressure, but the degeneracy is lifted at high pressures. These results establish the unusual vibrational properties of TiS3 with strong in-plane anisotropy, and may have relevance to understanding of vibrational properties in other anisotropic two-dimensional material systems.
Vibrational spectroscopy in the electron microscope would be transformative in the study of biological samples, provided that radiation damage could be prevented. However, electron beams typically create high-energy excitations that severely accelerate sample degradation. Here this major difficulty is overcome using an ‘aloof’ electron beam, positioned tens of nanometres away from the sample: high-energy excitations are suppressed, while vibrational modes of energies <1 eV can be ‘safely’ investigated. To demonstrate the potential of aloof spectroscopy, we record electron energy loss spectra from biogenic guanine crystals in their native state, resolving their characteristic C–H, N–H and C=O vibrational signatures with no observable radiation damage. The technique opens up the possibility of non-damaging compositional analyses of organic functional groups, including non-crystalline biological materials, at a spatial resolution of ∼10 nm, simultaneously combined with imaging in the electron microscope.
Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over “swine flu,” as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.