ASU Scholarship Showcase

Our ability to uncover complex network structure and dynamics from data is fundamental to understanding and controlling collective dynamics in complex systems. Despite recent progress in this area, reconstructing networks with stochastic dynamical processes from limited time series remains to be an outstanding problem. Here we develop a framework based on compressed sensing to reconstruct complex networks on which stochastic spreading dynamics take place. We apply the methodology to a large number of model and real networks, finding that a full reconstruction of inhomogeneous interactions can be achieved from small amounts of polarized (binary) data, a virtue of compressed sensing. Further, we demonstrate that a hidden source that triggers the spreading process but is externally inaccessible can be ascertained and located with high confidence in the absence of direct routes of propagation from it. Our approach thus establishes a paradigm for tracing and controlling epidemic invasion and information diffusion in complex networked systems.

Background: Improving perinatal health is the key to achieving the Millennium Development Goal for child survival. Recently, several reviews suggest that scaling up available effective perinatal interventions in an integrated approach can substantially reduce the stillbirth and neonatal death rates worldwide. We evaluated the effect of packaged interventions given in pregnancy, delivery and post-partum periods through integration of community- and facility-based services on perinatal mortality.

Methods: This study took advantage of an ongoing health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) and a new Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health (MNCH) Project initiated in 2007 in Matlab, Bangladesh in half (intervention area) of the HDSS area. In the other half, women received usual care through the government health system (comparison area). The MNCH Project strengthened ongoing maternal and child health services as well as added new services. The intervention followed a continuum of care model for pregnancy, intrapartum, and post-natal periods by improving established links between community- and facility-based services. With a separate pre-post samples design, we compared the perinatal mortality rates between two periods--before (2005-2006) and after (2008-2009) implementation of MNCH interventions. We also evaluated the difference-of-differences in perinatal mortality between intervention and comparison areas.

Results: Antenatal coverage, facility delivery and cesarean section rates were significantly higher in the post- intervention period in comparison with the period before intervention. In the intervention area, the odds of perinatal mortality decreased by 36% between the pre-intervention and post-intervention periods (odds ratio: 0.64; 95% confidence intervals: 0.52-0.78). The reduction in the intervention area was also significant relative to the reduction in the comparison area (OR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.56-0.95; P = 0.018).

Conclusion: The continuum of care approach provided through the integration of service delivery modes decreased the perinatal mortality rate within a short period of time. Further testing of this model is warranted within the government health system in Bangladesh and other low-income countries.

Much research has established reliable cross-population differences in motivations to invest in one's in-group. We compare two current historical-evolutionary hypotheses for this variation based on (1) effective large-scale institutions and (2) pathogen threats by analyzing cross-national differences (N = 122) in in-group preferences measured in three ways. We find that the effectiveness of government institutions correlates with favoring in-group members, even when controlling for pathogen stress and world region, assessing reverse causality, and providing a check on endogeneity with an instrumental variable analysis. Conversely, pathogen stress shows inconsistent associations with in-group favoritism when controlling for government effectiveness. Moreover, pathogen stress shows little to no association with in-group favoritism within major world regions whereas government effectiveness does. These results suggest that variation in in-group preferences across contemporary nation-states is more consistent with a generalized response to institutions that meet basic needs rather than an evolved response dedicated to pathogens.

Evolutionary games model a common type of interactions in a variety of complex, networked, natural systems and social systems. Given such a system, uncovering the interacting structure of the underlying network is key to understanding its collective dynamics. Based on compressive sensing, we develop an efficient approach to reconstructing complex networks under game-based interactions from small amounts of data. The method is validated by using a variety of model networks and by conducting an actual experiment to reconstruct a social network. While most existing methods in this area assume oscillator networks that generate continuous-time data, our work successfully demonstrates that the extremely challenging problem of reverse engineering of complex networks can also be addressed even when the underlying dynamical processes are governed by realistic, evolutionary-game type of interactions in discrete time.

Material wealth is a key factor shaping human development and well-being. Every year, hundreds of studies in social science and policy fields assess material wealth in low- and middle-income countries assuming that there is a single dimension by which households can move from poverty to prosperity. However, a one-dimensional model may miss important kinds of prosperity, particularly in countries where traditional subsistence-based livelihoods coexist with modern cash economies. Using multiple correspondence analysis to analyze representative household data from six countries—Nepal, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Guatemala—across three world regions, we identify a number of independent dimension of wealth, each with a clear link to locally relevant pathways to success in cash and agricultural economies. In all cases, the first dimension identified by this approach replicates standard one-dimensional estimates and captures success in cash economies. The novel dimensions we identify reflect success in different agricultural sectors and are independently associated with key benchmarks of food security and human growth, such as adult body mass index and child height. The multidimensional models of wealth we describe here provide new opportunities for examining the causes and consequences of wealth inequality that go beyond success in cash economies, for tracing the emergence of hybrid pathways to prosperity, and for assessing how these different pathways to economic success carry different health risks and social opportunities.

Human populations differ reliably in the degree to which people favor family, friends, and community members over strangers and outsiders. In the last decade, researchers have begun to propose several economic and evolutionary hypotheses for these cross-population differences in parochialism. In this paper, we outline major current theories and review recent attempts to test them. We also discuss the key methodological challenges in assessing these diverse economic and evolutionary theories for cross-population differences in parochialism.

Locating sources of diffusion and spreading from minimum data is a significant problem in network science with great applied values to the society. However, a general theoretical framework dealing with optimal source localization is lacking. Combining the controllability theory for complex networks and compressive sensing, we develop a framework with high efficiency and robustness for optimal source localization in arbitrary weighted networks with arbitrary distribution of sources. We offer a minimum output analysis to quantify the source locatability through a minimal number of messenger nodes that produce sufficient measurement for fully locating the sources. When the minimum messenger nodes are discerned, the problem of optimal source localization becomes one of sparse signal reconstruction, which can be solved using compressive sensing. Application of our framework to model and empirical networks demonstrates that sources in homogeneous and denser networks are more readily to be located. A surprising finding is that, for a connected undirected network with random link weights and weak noise, a single messenger node is sufficient for locating any number of sources. The framework deepens our understanding of the network source localization problem and offers efficient tools with broad applications.

Evolutionary games of cyclic competitions have been extensively studied to gain insights into one of the most fundamental phenomena in nature: biodiversity that seems to be excluded by the principle of natural selection. The Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) game of three species and its extensions [e.g., the Rock-Paper-Scissors-Lizard-Spock (RPSLS) game] are paradigmatic models in this field. In all previous studies, the intrinsic symmetry associated with cyclic competitions imposes a limitation on the resulting coexistence states, leading to only selective types of such states. We investigate the effect of nonuniform intraspecific competitions on coexistence and find that a wider spectrum of coexistence states can emerge and persist. This surprising finding is substantiated using three classes of cyclic game models through stability analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and continuous spatiotemporal dynamical evolution from partial differential equations. Our finding indicates that intraspecific competitions or alternative symmetry-breaking mechanisms can promote biodiversity to a broader extent than previously thought.

Dynamical processes occurring on the edges in complex networks are relevant to a variety of real-world situations. Despite recent advances, a framework for edge controllability is still required for complex networks of arbitrary structure and interaction strength. Generalizing a previously introduced class of processes for edge dynamics, the switchboard dynamics, and exploit- ing the exact controllability theory, we develop a universal framework in which the controllability of any node is exclusively determined by its local weighted structure. This framework enables us to identify a unique set of critical nodes for control, to derive analytic formulas and articulate efficient algorithms to determine the exact upper and lower controllability bounds, and to evaluate strongly structural controllability of any given network. Applying our framework to a large number of model and real-world networks, we find that the interaction strength plays a more significant role in edge controllability than the network structure does, due to a vast range between the bounds determined mainly by the interaction strength. Moreover, transcriptional regulatory networks and electronic circuits are much more strongly structurally controllable (SSC) than other types of real-world networks, directed networks are more SSC than undirected networks, and sparse networks are typically more SSC than dense networks.

Understanding the dynamics of human movements is key to issues of significant current interest such as behavioral prediction, recommendation, and control of epidemic spreading. We collect and analyze big data sets of human movements in both cyberspace (through browsing of websites) and physical space (through mobile towers) and find a superlinear scaling relation between the mean frequency of visit〈f〉and its fluctuation σ : σ ∼〈f⟩^β with β ≈ 1.2. The probability distribution of the visiting frequency is found to be a stretched exponential function. We develop a model incorporating two essential ingredients, preferential return and exploration, and show that these are necessary for generating the scaling relation extracted from real data. A striking finding is that human movements in cyberspace and physical space are strongly correlated, indicating a distinctive behavioral identifying characteristic and implying that the behaviors in one space can be used to predict those in the other.