ASU Scholarship Showcase

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term “spatio” refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing macroscopic properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack “fingerprints” and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Supply-demand processes take place on a large variety of real-world networked systems ranging from power grids and the internet to social networking and urban systems. In a modern infrastructure, supply-demand systems are constantly expanding, leading to constant increase in load requirement for resources and consequently, to problems such as low efficiency, resource scarcity, and partial system failures. Under certain conditions global catastrophe on the scale of the whole system can occur through the dynamical process of cascading failures. We investigate optimization and resilience of time-varying supply-demand systems by constructing network models of such systems, where resources are transported from the supplier sites to users through various links. Here by optimization we mean minimization of the maximum load on links, and system resilience can be characterized using the cascading failure size of users who fail to connect with suppliers.

We consider two representative classes of supply schemes: load driven supply and fix fraction supply. Our findings are: (1) optimized systems are more robust since relatively smaller cascading failures occur when triggered by external perturbation to the links; (2) a large fraction of links can be free of load if resources are directed to transport through the shortest paths; (3) redundant links in the performance of the system can help to reroute the traffic but may undesirably transmit and enlarge the failure size of the system; (4) the patterns of cascading failures depend strongly upon the capacity of links; (5) the specific location of the trigger determines the specific route of cascading failure, but has little effect on the final cascading size; (6) system expansion typically reduces the efficiency; and (7) when the locations of the suppliers are optimized over a long expanding period, fewer suppliers are required. These results hold for heterogeneous networks in general, providing insights into designing optimal and resilient complex supply-demand systems that expand constantly in time.

Human populations differ reliably in the degree to which people favor family, friends, and community members over strangers and outsiders. In the last decade, researchers have begun to propose several economic and evolutionary hypotheses for these cross-population differences in parochialism. In this paper, we outline major current theories and review recent attempts to test them. We also discuss the key methodological challenges in assessing these diverse economic and evolutionary theories for cross-population differences in parochialism.

A fundamental result in the evolutionary-game paradigm of cyclic competition in spatially extended ecological systems, as represented by the classic Reichenbach-Mobilia-Frey (RMF) model, is that high mobility tends to hamper or even exclude species coexistence. This result was obtained under the hypothesis that individuals move randomly without taking into account the suitability of their local environment. We incorporate local habitat suitability into the RMF model and investigate its effect on coexistence. In particular, we hypothesize the use of “basic instinct” of an individual to determine its movement at any time step. That is, an individual is more likely to move when the local habitat becomes hostile and is no longer favorable for survival and growth. We show that, when such local habitat suitability is taken into account, robust coexistence can emerge even in the high-mobility regime where extinction is certain in the RMF model. A surprising finding is that coexistence is accompanied by the occurrence of substantial empty space in the system. Reexamination of the RMF model confirms the necessity and the important role of empty space in coexistence. Our study implies that adaptation/movements according to local habitat suitability are a fundamental factor to promote species coexistence and, consequently, biodiversity.

We study the so-called Descent, or [bar over Q], Equation for the null polygonal supersymmetric Wilson loop in the framework of the pentagon operator product expansion. To properly address this problem, one requires to restore the cyclicity of the loop broken by the choice of OPE channels. In the course of the study, we unravel a phenomenon of twist enhancement when passing to a cyclically shifted channel. Currently, we focus on the consistency of the all-order Descent Equation for the particular case relating the NMHV heptagon to MHV hexagon. We find that the equation establishes a relation between contributions of different twists and successfully verify it in perturbation theory making use of available bootstrap predictions for elementary pentagons.

Material wealth is a key factor shaping human development and well-being. Every year, hundreds of studies in social science and policy fields assess material wealth in low- and middle-income countries assuming that there is a single dimension by which households can move from poverty to prosperity. However, a one-dimensional model may miss important kinds of prosperity, particularly in countries where traditional subsistence-based livelihoods coexist with modern cash economies. Using multiple correspondence analysis to analyze representative household data from six countries—Nepal, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Guatemala—across three world regions, we identify a number of independent dimension of wealth, each with a clear link to locally relevant pathways to success in cash and agricultural economies. In all cases, the first dimension identified by this approach replicates standard one-dimensional estimates and captures success in cash economies. The novel dimensions we identify reflect success in different agricultural sectors and are independently associated with key benchmarks of food security and human growth, such as adult body mass index and child height. The multidimensional models of wealth we describe here provide new opportunities for examining the causes and consequences of wealth inequality that go beyond success in cash economies, for tracing the emergence of hybrid pathways to prosperity, and for assessing how these different pathways to economic success carry different health risks and social opportunities.

We present a new approach to computing event shape distributions or, more precisely, charge flow correlations in a generic conformal field theory (CFT). These infrared finite observables are familiar from collider physics studies and describe the angular distribution of global charges in outgoing radiation created from the vacuum by some source. The charge flow correlations can be expressed in terms of Wightman correlation functions in a certain limit. We explain how to compute these quantities starting from their Euclidean analogues by means of a nontrivial analytic continuation which, in the framework of CFT, can be performed elegantly in Mellin space. The relation between the charge flow correlations and Euclidean correlation functions can be reformulated directly in configuration space, bypassing the Mellin representation, as a certain Lorentzian double discontinuity of the correlation function integrated along the cuts. We illustrate the general formalism in N = 4 SYM, making use of the well-known results on the four-point correlation function of half-BPS scalar operators. We compute the double scalar flow correlation in N = 4 SYM, at weak and strong coupling and show that it agrees with known results obtained by different techniques. One of the remarkable features of the N = 4 theory is that the scalar and energy flow correlations are proportional to each other. Imposing natural physical conditions on the energy flow correlations (finiteness, positivity and regularity), we formulate additional constraints on the four-point correlation functions in N = 4SYM that should be valid at any coupling and away from the planar limit.

We analyze the near-collinear limit of the null polygonal hexagon super Wilson loop in the planar N = 4 super-Yang–Mills theory. We focus on its Grassmann components which are dual to next-to-maximal helicity-violating (NMHV) scattering amplitudes. The kinematics in question is studied within a framework of the operator product expansion that encodes propagation of excitations on the background of the color flux tube stretched between the sides of Wilson loop contour. While their dispersion relation is known to all orders in 't Hooft coupling from previous studies, we find their form factor couplings to the Wilson loop. This is done making use of a particular tessellation of the loop where pentagon transitions play a fundamental role. Being interested in NMHV amplitudes, the corresponding building blocks carry a nontrivial charge under the SU(4) R-symmetry group. Restricting the current consideration to twist-two accuracy, we analyze two-particle contributions with a fermion as one of the constituents in the pair. We demonstrate that these nonsinglet pentagons obey bootstrap equations that possess consistent solutions for any value of the coupling constant. To confirm the correctness of these predictions, we calculate their contribution to the super Wilson loop demonstrating agreement with recent results to four-loop order in 't Hooft coupling.

We study event shapes in N = 4SYM describing the angular distribution of energy and R-charge in the final states created by the simplest half-BPS scalar operator. Applying the approach developed in the companion paper arXiv:1309.0769, we compute these observables using the correlation functions of certain components of the N = 4 stress-tensor supermultiplet: the half-BPS operator itself, the R-symmetry current and the stress tensor. We present master formulas for the all-order event shapes as convolutions of the Mellin amplitude defining the correlation function of the half-BPS operators, with a coupling-independent kernel determined by the choice of the observable. We find remarkably simple relations between various event shapes following from N = 4 superconformal symmetry. We perform thorough checks at leading order in the weak coupling expansion and show perfect agreement with the conventional calculations based on amplitude techniques. We extend our results to strong coupling using the correlation function of half-BPS operators obtained from the AdS/CFT correspondence.

We compute one-loop renormalization group equations for non-singlet twist-four operators in QCD. The calculation heavily relies on the light-cone gauge formalism in the momentum fraction space that essentially rephrases the analysis of all two-to-two and two-to-three transition kernels to purely algebraic manipulations both for non- and quasipartonic operators. This is the first brute force calculation of this sector available in the literature. Fourier transforming our findings to the coordinate space, we checked them against available results obtained within a conformal symmetry-based formalism that bypasses explicit diagrammatic calculations and confirmed agreement with the latter.