ASU Scholarship Showcase

In this synthesis, we hope to accomplish two things: 1) reflect on how the analysis of the new archaeological cases presented in this special feature adds to previous case studies by revisiting a set of propositions reported in a 2006 special feature, and 2) reflect on four main ideas that are more specific to the archaeological cases: i) societal choices are influenced by robustness–vulnerability trade-offs, ii) there is interplay between robustness–vulnerability trade-offs and robustness–performance trade-offs, iii) societies often get locked in to particular strategies, and iv) multiple positive feedbacks escalate the perceived cost of societal change. We then discuss whether these lock-in traps can be prevented or whether the risks associated with them can be mitigated. We conclude by highlighting how these long-term historical studies can help us to understand current society, societal practices, and the nexus between ecology and society.

What relationships can be understood between resilience and vulnerability in social-ecological systems? In particular, what vulnerabilities are exacerbated or ameliorated by different sets of social practices associated with water management? These questions have been examined primarily through the study of contemporary or recent historic cases. Archaeology extends scientific observation beyond all social memory and can thus illuminate interactions occurring over centuries or millennia. We examined trade-offs of resilience and vulnerability in the changing social, technological, and environmental contexts of three long-term, pre-Hispanic sequences in the U.S. Southwest: the Mimbres area in southwestern New Mexico (AD 650–1450), the Zuni area in northern New Mexico (AD 850–1540), and the Hohokam area in central Arizona (AD 700–1450). In all three arid landscapes, people relied on agricultural systems that depended on physical and social infrastructure that diverted adequate water to agricultural soils. However, investments in infrastructure varied across the cases, as did local environmental conditions. Zuni farming employed a variety of small-scale water control strategies, including centuries of reliance on small runoff agricultural systems; Mimbres fields were primarily watered by small-scale canals feeding floodplain fields; and the Hohokam area had the largest canal system in pre-Hispanic North America. The cases also vary in their historical trajectories: at Zuni, population and resource use remained comparatively stable over centuries, extending into the historic period; in the Mimbres and Hohokam areas, there were major demographic and environmental transformations. Comparisons across these cases thus allow an understanding of factors that promote vulnerability and influence resilience in specific contexts.

Contemporary human populations conform to ecogeographic predictions that animals will become more compact in cooler climates and less compact in warmer ones. However, it remains unclear to what extent this pattern reflects plastic responses to current environments or genetic differences among populations. Analyzing anthropometric surveys of 232,684 children and adults from across 80 ethnolinguistic groups in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the Americas, we confirm that body surface-to-volume correlates with contemporary temperature at magnitudes found in more latitudinally diverse samples (Adj. R² = 0.14-0.28). However, far more variation in body surface-to-volume is attributable to genetic population structure (Adj. R² = 0.50-0.74). Moreover, genetic population structure accounts for nearly all of the observed relationship between contemporary temperature and body surface-to-volume among children and adults. Indeed, after controlling for population structure, contemporary temperature accounts for no more than 4% of the variance in body form in these groups. This effect of genetic affinity on body form is also independent of other ecological variables, such as dominant mode of subsistence and household wealth per capita. These findings suggest that the observed fit of human body surface-to-volume with current climate in this sample reflects relatively large effects of existing genetic population structure of contemporary humans compared to plastic response to current environments.

Background: The transition from the home to college is a phase in which emerging adults shift toward more unhealthy eating and physical activity patterns, higher body mass indices, thus increasing risk of overweight/obesity. Currently, little is understood about how changing friendship networks shape weight gain behaviors. This paper describes the recruitment, data collection, and data analytic protocols for the SPARC (Social impact of Physical Activity and nutRition in College) study, a longitudinal examination of the mechanisms by which friends and friendship networks influence nutrition and physical activity behaviors and weight gain in the transition to college life.

Methods: The SPARC study aims to follow 1450 university freshmen from a large university over an academic year, collecting data on multiple aspects of friends and friendship networks. Integrating multiple types of data related to student lives, ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) are administered via a cell phone application, devilSPARC. EMAs collected in four 1-week periods (a total of 4 EMA waves) are integrated with linked data from web-based surveys and anthropometric measurements conducted at four times points (for a total of eight data collection periods including EMAs, separated by ~1 month). University databases will provide student card data, allowing integration of both time-dated data on food purchasing, use of physical activity venues, and geographical information system (GIS) locations of these activities relative to other students in their social networks.

Discussion: Findings are intended to guide the development of more effective interventions to enhance behaviors among college students that protect against weight gain during college.

The number and variety of connectivity estimation methods is likely to continue to grow over the coming decade. Comparisons between methods are necessary to prune this growth to only the most accurate and robust methods. However, the nature of connectivity is elusive with different methods potentially attempting to identify different aspects of connectivity. Commonalities of connectivity definitions across methods upon which base direct comparisons can be difficult to derive. Here, we explicitly define “effective connectivity” using a common set of observation and state equations that are appropriate for three connectivity methods: dynamic causal modeling (DCM), multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR), and switching linear dynamic systems for fMRI (sLDSf). In addition while deriving this set, we show how many other popular functional and effective connectivity methods are actually simplifications of these equations. We discuss implications of these connections for the practice of using one method to simulate data for another method. After mathematically connecting the three effective connectivity methods, simulated fMRI data with varying numbers of regions and task conditions is generated from the common equation. This simulated data explicitly contains the type of the connectivity that the three models were intended to identify. Each method is applied to the simulated data sets and the accuracy of parameter identification is analyzed. All methods perform above chance levels at identifying correct connectivity parameters. The sLDSf method was superior in parameter estimation accuracy to both DCM and MAR for all types of comparisons.

Ecological models are a fundamental tool that archaeologists use to clarify our thinking about the processes that generate the archaeological record. Typically, arguments reasoned from a single model are bolstered by observing the consistency of ethnographic data with the argument. This validation of a model establishes that an argument is reasonable. In this paper, we attempt to move beyond validation by comparing the consistency of two arguments reasoned from different models that might explain corporate territorial ownership in a large ethnographic data set. Our results suggest that social dilemmas are an under appreciated mechanism that can drive the evolution of corporate territorial ownership. When social dilemmas emerge, the costs associated with provisioning the public goods of information on resources or, perhaps, common defence create situations in which human foragers gain more by cooperating to recognize corporate ownership rules than they lose. Our results also indicate that societies who share a common cultural history are more likely to recognize corporate ownership, and there is a spatial dynamic in which societies who live near each other are more likely to recognize corporate ownership as the number of near-by groups who recognize ownership increases. Our results have important implications for investigating the coevolution of territorial ownership and the adoption of food production in the archaeological record.

Background: Prior studies have shown that using uterotonics to augment or induce labor before arrival at comprehensive Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (CEmONC) settings (henceforth, “outside uterotonics”) may contribute to perinatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries. We estimate its effect on perinatal mortality in rural Bangladesh.

Methods: Using hospital records (23986 singleton term births, Jan 1, 2009-Dec 31, 2015) from rural Bangladesh, we use a logistic regression model to estimate the increased risk of perinatal death from uterotonics administered outside a CEmONC facility.

Results: Among term births (≥37 weeks gestation), the risk of perinatal death adjusted for key confounders is significantly increased among women reporting uterotonic use outside of CEmONC (OR = 3 · 0, 95 % CI = 2 · 4,3 · 7). This increased risk is particularly high for fresh stillbirths (OR = 4 · 0, 95 % CI = 3 · 0,5 · 3) and intrapartum-related causes of early neonatal deaths (birth asphyxia) (OR = 3 · 1, 95 % CI = 2 · 2,4 · 5).

Conclusions: In this sample, outside uterotonic use was associated with substantially increased risk of fresh stillbirths, deaths due to birth asphyxia, and all perinatal deaths. In settings of high uterotonic use outside of controlled settings, substantial improvement in both stillbirth and early neonatal mortality may be made by reducing such use.

Background: Carriers of the APOE ε4 allele are at increased risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and have been shown to have reduced cerebral metabolic rate of glucose (CMRgl) in the same brain areas frequently affected in AD. These individuals also exhibit reduced plasma levels of apolipoprotein E (apoE) attributed to a specific decrease in the apoE4 isoform as determined by quantification of individual apoE isoforms in APOE ε4 heterozygotes. Whether low plasma apoE levels are associated with structural and functional brain measurements and cognitive performance remains to be investigated.

Methods: Using quantitative mass spectrometry we quantified the plasma levels of total apoE and the individual apoE3 and apoE4 isoforms in 128 cognitively normal APOE ε3/ε4 individuals included in the Arizona APOE cohort. All included individuals had undergone extensive neuropsychological testing and 25 had in addition undergone FDG-PET and MRI to determine CMRgl and regional gray matter volume (GMV).

Results: Our results demonstrated higher apoE4 levels in females versus males and an age-dependent increase in the apoE3 isoform levels in females only. Importantly, a higher relative ratio of apoE4 over apoE3 was associated with GMV loss in the right posterior cingulate and with reduced CMRgl bilaterally in the anterior cingulate and in the right hippocampal area. Additional exploratory analysis revealed several negative associations between total plasma apoE, individual apoE isoform levels, GMV and CMRgl predominantly in the frontal, occipital and temporal areas. Finally, our results indicated only weak associations between apoE plasma levels and cognitive performance which further appear to be affected by sex.

Conclusions: Our study proposes a sex-dependent and age-dependent variation in plasma apoE isoform levels and concludes that peripheral apoE levels are associated with GMV, CMRgl and possibly cognitive performance in cognitively healthy individuals with a genetic predisposition to AD.

Background: We introduced a hypometabolic convergence index (HCI) to characterize in a single measurement the extent to which a person’s fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomogram (FDG PET) corresponds to that in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Apolipoprotein E ε4 (APOE ε4) gene dose is associated with three levels of risk for late-onset AD. We explored the association between gene dose and HCI in cognitively normal ε4 homozygotes, heterozygotes, and non-carriers.

Methods: An algorithm was used to characterize and compare AD-related HCIs in cognitively normal individuals, including 36 ε4 homozygotes, 46 heterozygotes, and 78 non-carriers.

Results: These three groups differed significantly in their HCIs (ANOVA, p = 0.004), and there was a significant association between HCIs and gene dose (linear trend, p = 0.001).

Conclusions: The HCI is associated with three levels of genetic risk for late-onset AD. This supports the possibility of using a single FDG PET measurement to help in the preclinical detection and tracking of AD.