ASU Scholarship Showcase

Interdependent systems providing water and energy services are necessary for agriculture. Climate change and increased resource demands are expected to cause frequent and severe strains on these systems. Arizona is especially vulnerable to such strains due to its hot and arid climate. However, its climate enables year-round agricultural production, allowing Arizona to supply most of the country's winter lettuce and vegetables. In addition to Phoenix and Tucson, cities including El Paso, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Diego rely on Arizona for several types of agricultural products such as animal feed and livestock, meaning that disruptions to Arizona's agriculture also disrupt food supply chains to at least six major cities.

Arizona's predominately irrigated agriculture relies on water imported through an energy intensive process from water-stressed regions. Most irrigation in Arizona is electricity powered, so failures in energy or water systems can cascade to the food system, creating a food-energy-water (FEW) nexus of vulnerability. We construct a dynamic simulation model of the FEW nexus in Arizona to assess the potential impacts of increasing temperatures and disruptions to energy and water supplies on crop irrigation requirements, on-farm energy use, and yield.

We use this model to identify critical points of intersection between energy, water, and agricultural systems and quantify expected increases in resource use and yield loss. Our model is based on threshold temperatures of crops, USDA and US Geological Survey data, Arizona crop budgets, and region-specific literature. We predict that temperature increase above the baseline could decrease yields by up to 12.2% per 1 °C for major Arizona crops and require increased irrigation of about 2.6% per 1 °C. Response to drought varies widely based on crop and phenophase, so we estimate irrigation interruption effects through scenario analysis. We provide an overview of potential adaptation measures farmers can take, and barriers to implementation.

Major urban centers are warming due to a combination of global and local phenomena. City governments are increasingly adopting strategies to mitigate the causes and impacts of extreme heat on their populations. Among these strategies are high solar-reflectance (cool) surfaces installed on building roofs and walls. Use of cool surfaces is a cost-effective and simple strategy that replaces conventional darker surfaces with surfaces that have a high reflectance to shortwave (solar) energy.

This report reviews the recent history of cool-surface deployment efforts. This includes peer-reviewed literature, conference proceedings, and grey literature to identify challenges and barriers to wide-scale deployment of cool surfaces. We have also researched heat action plans and programs from cities and different codes and standards, as well as available incentive and rebate programs.

The review identifies challenges, barriers, and opportunities associated with large-scale deployment of cool surfaces and categorizes them broadly as being related to product development & performance or policies & mandates. It provides a foundation upon which we intend to build a roadmap for rapidly accelerating future deployments of cool surfaces. This roadmap will address identified challenges and incorporate lessons learned from historical efforts to generate a practical and actionable plan.