ASU Scholarship Showcase

Much of the richness of human thought is supported by people’s intuitive theories—mental frameworks capturing the perceived structure of the world. But intuitive theories can sometimes contain and reinforce misconceptions, such as misconceptions about vaccine safety that discourage vaccination. We argue that addressing misconceptions requires awareness of the broader conceptual contexts in which they are embedded. Here, we developed a cognitive model of the intuitive theory surrounding vaccination decisions. Using this model, we were able to make accurate predictions about how people’s beliefs would be revised in light of educational interventions, design an effective new intervention encouraging vaccination, and understand how these beliefs were affected by real-world events. This approach provides the foundation for richer understandings of intuitive theories and belief revision more broadly.

Accessibility is increasingly used as a metric when evaluating changes to public transport systems. Transit travel times contain variation depending on when one departs relative to when a transit vehicle arrives, and how well transfers are coordinated given a particular timetable. In addition, there is necessarily uncertainty in the value of the accessibility metric during sketch planning processes, due to scenarios which are underspecified because detailed schedule information is not yet available. This article presents a method to extend the concept of "reliable" accessibility to transit to address the first issue, and create confidence intervals and hypothesis tests to address the second.