Matching Items (75)
Description
The increase in the photovoltaic (PV) generation on distribution grids may cause reverse power flows and challenges such as service voltage violations and transformer overloading. To resolve these issues, utilities need situational awareness, e.g., PV-feeder mapping to identify the potential back-feeding feeders and meter-transformer mapping for transformer overloading. As circuit schematics are outdated, this work relies on data. In cases where the advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data is unavailable, e.g., analog meters or bandwidth limitation, the dissertation proposes to use feeder measurements from utilities and solar panel measurements from solar companies to identify PV-feeder mapping. Several sequentially improved methods based on quantitative association rule mining (QARM) are proposed, where a lower bound for performance guarantee is also provided. However, binning data in QARM leads to information loss. So, bands are designed to replace bins for increased robustness. For cases where AMI data is available but solar PV data is unavailable, the AMI voltage data and location data are used for situational awareness, i.e., meter-transformer mapping, to resolve voltage violation and transformer overloading. A density-based clustering method is proposed that leverages AMI voltage data and geographical information to efficiently segment utility meters such that the segments comprise meters of few transformers only. Although it is helpful for utilities, it may not directly recover the meter-transformer connectivity, which requires transformer-wise segmentation. The proposed density-based method and other past methods ignore two common scenarios, e.g., having large distance between a meter and parent transformer or high similarity of a meter's consumption pattern to a non-parent transformer's meters. However, going from meter-meter can lead to the parent transformer group meters due to the usual observation that the similarity of intra-cluster meter voltages is usually stronger than the similarity of inter-cluster meter voltages. Therefore, performance guarantee is provided via spectral embedding with voltage data under reasonable assumption. Moreover, the assumption is partially relaxed using location data. It will benefit the utility in many ways, e.g., mitigating voltage violations by transformer tap settings and identifying overloaded transformers.
ContributorsSaleem, Muhammad Bilal (Author) / Weng, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Wu, Meng (Committee member) / Cook, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Climate change is one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today. One of the impacts of climate change is on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs), such as West Nile Virus (WNV). Climate is known to influence vector and host demography as well as MBD transmission. This dissertation addresses the questions of how vector and host demography impact WNV dynamics, and how expected and likely climate change scenarios will affect demographic and epidemiological processes of WNV transmission. First, a data fusion method is developed that connects non-autonomous logistic model parameters to mosquito time series data. This method captures the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variation of mosquito populations within a geographical location. Next, a three-population WNV model between mosquito vectors, bird hosts, and human hosts with infection-age structure for the vector and bird host populations is introduced. A sensitivity analysis uncovers which parameters have the most influence on WNV outbreaks. Finally, the WNV model is extended to include the non-autonomous population model and temperature-dependent processes. Model parameterization using historical temperature and human WNV case data from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is conducted. Parameter fitting results are then used to analyze possible future WNV dynamics under two climate change scenarios. These results suggest that WNV risk for the GTA will substantially increase as temperature increases from climate change, even under the most conservative assumptions. This demonstrates the importance of ensuring that the warming of the planet is limited as much as possible.
ContributorsMancuso, Marina (Author) / Milner, Fabio A (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Eikenberry, Steffen (Committee member) / Manore, Carrie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
As the impacts of climate change worsen in the coming decades, natural hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, leading to increased loss and risk to human livelihood. The spatio-temporal statistical approaches developed and applied in this dissertation highlight the ways in which hazard data can be leveraged to understand loss trends, build forecasts, and study societal impacts of losses. Specifically, this work makes use of the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database which is an unparalleled source of loss data for the United States. The first portion of this dissertation develops accurate loss baselines that are crucial for mitigation planning, infrastructure investment, and risk communication. This is accomplished thorough a stationarity analysis of county level losses following a normalization procedure. A wide variety of studies employ loss data without addressing stationarity assumptions or the possibility for spurious regression. This work enables the statistically rigorous application of such loss time series to modeling applications. The second portion of this work develops a novel matrix variate dynamic factor model for spatio-temporal loss data stratified across multiple correlated hazards or perils. The developed model is employed to analyze and forecast losses from convective storms, which constitute some of the highest losses covered by insurers. Adopting factor-based approach, forecasts are achieved despite the complex and often unobserved underlying drivers of these losses. The developed methodology extends the literature on dynamic factor models to matrix variate time series. Specifically, a covariance structure is imposed that is well suited to spatio-temporal problems while significantly reducing model complexity. The model is fit via the EM algorithm and Kalman filter. The third and final part of this dissertation investigates the impact of compounding hazard events on state and regional migration in the United States. Any attempt to capture trends in climate related migration must account for the inherent uncertainties surrounding climate change, natural hazard occurrences, and socioeconomic factors. For this reason, I adopt a Bayesian modeling approach that enables the explicit estimation of the inherent uncertainty. This work can provide decision-makers with greater clarity regarding the extent of knowledge on climate trends.
ContributorsBoyle, Esther Sarai (Author) / Jevtic, Petar (Thesis advisor) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis advisor) / Lan, Shiwei (Committee member) / Cheng, Dan (Committee member) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Gall, Melanie (Committee member) / Cutter, Susan (Committee member) / McNicholas, Paul (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
It is well–established that physical phenomena occurring at the macroscale are the result of underlying molecular mechanisms that occur at the nanoscale. Understanding these mechanisms at the molecular level allows the development of semicrystalline polymers with tailored properties for different applications. Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations offer significant insight into these mechanisms and their impact on various physical and mechanical properties. However, the temporostpatial limitations of all–atomistic (AA) MD simulations impede the investigation of phenomena with higher time– and length–scale. Coarse–grained (CG) MD simulations address the shortcomings of AAMD simulations by grouping atoms based on their chemical, structural, etc., aspects into larger particles, beads, and reducing the degrees offreedom of the atomistic system, allowing achievement of higher time– and length–scales. Among the approaches for generating CG models, the hybrid approach is capable of capturing the underlying mechanisms at the molecular level while replicating phenomena at temporospatial scales attainable by the CG model. In this dissertation, a novel hybrid method is developed for the systematic coarse–graining of semicrystalline polymers that uniquely blends the potential functions of both phases. The obtained blended potential not only faithfully reproduces the structural distributions of multiple phases simultaneously but also allows control over the dynamics of the obtained CG models employing a tunable parameter. Given that accelerated dynamics of the CG models hinder the investigation of phenomena in the crystal phase, such as α–α-relaxation, by utilizing the developed method, this phenomenon was successfully modeled for a semicrystalline polyethylene (PE) system with obtained values for the diffusion constant at room temperature and the activation energy in close agreement with experimental results. In a subsequent study, a family of potentials was developed for a sample semicrystalline polyethylene (PE) to investigate the impact of different potential functions on some physical properties, such as crystal diffusion and glass transition temperature, and their correlation with some mechanical properties
obtained from uniaxial deformation.
ContributorsEghlidos, Omid (Author) / Oswald, Jay JJO (Thesis advisor) / Chattopadhyay, Aditi (Committee member) / Mignolet, Marc (Committee member) / Hjelmstad, Keith (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Over the past 20 years, the fields of synthetic biology and synthetic biosystems engineering have grown into mature disciplines, leading to significant breakthroughs in cancer research, diagnostics, cell-based medicines, biochemical production, etc. Application of mathematical modelling to biological and biochemical systems have not only given great insight into how these systems function, but also have lent enough predictive power to aid in the forward-engineering of synthetic constructs. However, progress has been impeded by several modes of context-dependence unique to biological and biochemical systems that are not seen in traditional engineering disciplines, resulting in the need for lengthy design-build-test cycles before functional prototypes are generated.In this work, two of these universal modes of context dependence – resource competition and growth feedback –their effects on synthetic gene circuits and potential control mechanisms, are studied and characterized. Results demonstrate that a novel competitive control architecture can be utilized to mitigate the effects of winner-take-all resource competition (a form of context dependence where distinct gene modules influence each other by competing over a shared pool of transcriptional/translational resources) in synthetic gene circuits and restore circuits to their intended function. Application of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem and rigorous stochastic simulations demonstrate that realistic resource constraints present in cells at the transcriptional and translational levels influence noise in gene circuits in a nonmonotonic fashion, either increasing or decreasing noise depending on the transcriptional/translational capacity.
Growth feedback on the other hand links circuit function to cellular growth rate via increased protein dilution rate during exponential growth phase. This in turn can result in the collapse of bistable gene circuits as the accelerated dilution rate forces switches in a high stable state to fall to a low stable state. Mathematical modelling and experimental data demonstrate that application of repressive links can insulate sensitive parts of gene circuits against growth-fluctuations and can in turn increase the robustness of multistable circuits in growth contexts.
The results presented in this work aid in the accumulation of understanding of biological and biochemical context dependence, and corresponding control strategies and design principles engineers can utilize to mitigate these effects.
ContributorsStone, Austin (Author) / Tian, Xiao-jun (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Xiao (Committee member) / Smith, Barbara (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Cheng, Albert (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
A leading crisis in the United States is the opioid use disorder (OUD) epidemic. Opioid overdose deaths have been increasing, with over 100,000 deaths due to overdose from April 2020 to April 2021. This dissertation presents two mathematical models to address illicit OUD (IOUD), treatment, and recovery within an epidemiological framework. In the first model, individuals remain in the recovery class unless they relapse. Due to the limited availability of specialty treatment facilities for individuals with OUD, a saturation treat- ment function was incorporated. The second model is an extension of the first, where a casual user class and its corresponding specialty treatment class were added. Using U.S. population data, the data was scaled to a population of 200,000 to find parameter estimates. While the first model used the heroin-only dataset, the second model used both the heroin and all-illicit opioids datasets. Backward bifurcation was found in the first IOUD model for realistic parameter values. Additionally, bistability was observed in the second IOUD model with the heroin-only dataset. This result implies that it would be beneficial to increase the availability of treatment. An alarming effect was discovered about the high overdose death rate: by 2038, the disease-free equilibrium would be the only stable equilibrium. This consequence is concerning because although the goal is for the epidemic to end, it would be preferable to end it through treatment rather than overdose. The IOUD model with a casual user class, its sensitivity results, and the comparison of parameters for both datasets, showed the importance of not overlooking the influence that casual users have in driving the all-illicit opioid epidemic. Casual users stay in the casual user class longer and are not going to treatment as quickly as the users of the heroin epidemic. Another result was that the users of the all-illicit opioids were going to the recovered class by means other than specialty treatment. However, the relapse rates for those individuals were much more significant than in the heroin-only epidemic. The results above from analyzing these models may inform health and policy officials, leading to more effective treatment options and prevention efforts.
ContributorsCole, Sandra (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Camacho, Erika (Committee member) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
There is a need in the ecology literature to have a discussion about the fundamental theories from which population dynamics arises. Ad hoc model development is not uncommon in the field often as a result of a need to publish rapidly and frequently. Ecologists and statisticians like Robert J. Steidl and Kenneth P Burnham have called for a more deliberative approach they call "hard thinking". For example, the phenomena of population growth can be captured by almost any sigmoid function. The question of which sigmoid function best explains a data set cannot be answered meaningfully by statistical regression since that can only speak to the validity of the shape. There is a need to revisit enzyme kinetics and ecological stoichiometry to properly justify basal model selection in ecology. This dissertation derives several common population growth models from a generalized equation. The mechanistic validity of these models in different contexts is explored through a kinetic lens. The behavioral kinetic framework is then put to the test by examining a set of biologically plausible growth models against the 1968-1995 elk population count data for northern Yellowstone. Using only this count data, the novel Monod-Holling growth model was able to accurately predict minimum viable population and life expectancy despite both being exogenous to the model and data set. Lastly, the elk/wolf data from Yellowstone was used to compare the validity of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur and Arditi-Ginzburg models. They both were derived from a more general model which included both predator and prey mediated steps. The Arditi-Ginzburg model was able to fit the training data better, but only the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model matched the validation data. Accounting for animal sexual behavior allowed for the creation of the Monod-Holling model which is just as simple as the logistic differential equation but provides greater insights for conservation purposes. Explicitly acknowledging the ethology of wolf predation helps explain the differences in predictive performances by the best fit Rosenzweig-MacArthur and Arditi-Ginzburg models. The behavioral kinetic framework has proven to be a useful tool, and it has the ability to provide even further insights going forward.
ContributorsPringle, Jack Andrew McCracken (Author) / Anderies, John M (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Milner, Fabio (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Ecology has been an actively studied topic recently, along with the rapid development of human microbiota-based technology. Scientists have made remarkable progress using bioinformatics tools to identify species and analyze composition. However, a thorough understanding of interspecies interactions of microbial ecosystems is still lacking, which has been a significant obstacle in the further development of related technologies. In this work, a genetic circuit design principle with synthetic biology approaches is developed to form two-strain microbial consortia with different inter-strain interactions. The microbial systems are well-defined and inducible. Co-culture experiment results show that our microbial consortia behave consistently with previous ecological knowledge and thus serves as excellent model systems to simulate ecosystems with similar interactions. Colony patterns also emerge when co-culturing multiple species on solid media. With the engineered microbial consortia, image-processing based methods were developed to quantify the shape of co-culture colonies and distinguish microbial consortia with different interactions. Factors that affect the population ratios were identified through induction and variations in the inoculation process. Further time-lapse experiments revealed the basic rules of colony growth, composition variation, patterning, and how spatial factors impact the co-culture colony.
ContributorsChen, Xingwen (Author) / Wang, Xiao (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Tian, Xiaojun (Committee member) / Brafman, David (Committee member) / Plaisier, Christopher (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
The mutual inhibition between synthetic gene circuits and cell growth produces growth feedback in the host-circuit system. Previous studies have demonstrated that the growth feedback has an marked impact on the molecular dynamics of the host-circuit system. However, the complexity of the growth feedback effect is not fully understood. A theoretical framework was developed to study the dynamics of the coupling between growth feedback and synthetic gene circuits. The study’s results reveal three major points about the impact of growth feedback. First, a nonlinear emergent behavior mediated by growth feedback. The unexpected behavior depends on the dynamic ribosome allocation between gene circuit expression and host cell growth. Second, the emergence and loss of unexpected qualitative states on the host-circuit system generated by ultrasensitive growth feedback. Third, the growth feedback-induced cooperativity behavior in synthetic gene modules competing for resources. In addition, growth feedback attenuated the winner-takes-all rules on resource competition between the two self-activating modules. These results demonstrate that growth feedback plays an important role in the host-circuit system’s molecular dynamics. Characterizing general principles from the effect of growth facilitates the ability to minimize or even harness unexpected gene expression behaviors derived from the effect of growth feedback.
ContributorsMelendez-Alvarez, Juan Ramon (Author) / Tian, Xiaojun (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Xiao (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
For fifty years, inquiry has attempted to capture how groups of people experience microaggression phenomena through multiple methodological and analytic applications grounded in psychology-influenced frameworks. Yet, despite theoretical advancements, the phenomenon has met criticisms trivializing its existence, falsifiability, and social significance. Unpacking possible interactive factors of a microaggressive moment invites a revisitation of the known and unknown pragmatic conditions that may produce and influence its discomforting situational “content.” This study employs an intentional, game-theoretic methodology based on brief, publicly-recorded, everyday conversation segments. Conversation segments of social interactions provide a means to conduct a mathematically-solid, computationally-tractable analysis of explaining what is happening during encounters where disability microaggressions are likely the result of partial (non)cooperation between communicators. Such analysis extends the microaggression research program (MRP) by: (1) proposing theoretical consequences for conversational repair phenomena, algorithmic programming, and experimental designs in negotiation research; and (2) outlining practical approaches for preventing microaggressions with new communication pedagogy, anti-oppression/de-escalation training programs, and calculable, focus-oriented psychotherapy. It concludes with an invitation for scholars to “be” in ambiguity so that they may speculate possible trajectories for the study of microaggressions as a communicative phenomenon.
ContributorsReutlinger, Corey Jon (Author) / de la Garza, Sarah Amira (Thesis advisor) / Alberts, Janet (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Cherney, James L. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021