Matching Items (17)
Description
This thesis analyzes the implications of climate change for insect-borne diseases in humans, focusing especially on mosquitoes and ticks as the two most common vectors. I first introduce relevant background on climate change, arthropod vectors, and the diseases they carry, and the significance of vector-borne diseases for human health. I report on current knowledge of spatial and temporal trends in most common mosquito and tick-borne diseases in the United States, with a detailed table provided in Appendix A. I then review how climatic variability is anticipated to cause profound changes in vector life cycles. In particular, the rise in global ambient temperatures is likely to be the primary driver of arthropod proliferation, although they are also sensitive to changes in humidity, carbon dioxide levels, and water levels. As regions warm, arthropods will be able to survive where they were not able to previously, potentially infecting more individuals. The incidence of several vector-borne diseases in the United States is predicted to increase in multiple states as climate change progresses. The World Health Organization predicts that in North America, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever and Lyme disease will become the primary vector-borne diseases that are increasingly common (Githeko, et. al, 2000).
ContributorsKarjala, Sylvia (Author) / Sterner, Beckett (Thesis director) / Jevtic, Petar (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-12
Description
The introduction of parameterized loss functions for robustness in machine learning has led to questions as to how hyperparameter(s) of the loss functions can be tuned. This thesis explores how Bayesian methods can be leveraged to tune such hyperparameters. Specifically, a modified Gibbs sampling scheme is used to generate a distribution of loss parameters of tunable loss functions. The modified Gibbs sampler is a two-block sampler that alternates between sampling the loss parameter and optimizing the other model parameters. The sampling step is performed using slice sampling, while the optimization step is performed using gradient descent. This thesis explores the application of the modified Gibbs sampler to alpha-loss, a tunable loss function with a single parameter $\alpha \in (0,\infty]$, that is designed for the classification setting. Theoretically, it is shown that the Markov chain generated by a modified Gibbs sampling scheme is ergodic; that is, the chain has, and converges to, a unique stationary (posterior) distribution. Further, the modified Gibbs sampler is implemented in two experiments: a synthetic dataset and a canonical image dataset. The results show that the modified Gibbs sampler performs well under label noise, generating a distribution indicating preference for larger values of alpha, matching the outcomes of previous experiments.
ContributorsCole, Erika Lingo (Author) / Sankar, Lalitha (Thesis advisor) / Lan, Shiwei (Thesis advisor) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Committee member) / Hahn, Paul (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Longitudinal data involving multiple subjects is quite popular in medical and social science areas. I consider generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) applied to such longitudinal data, and the optimal design searching problem under such models. In this case, based on optimal design theory, the optimality criteria depend on the estimated parameters, which leads to local optimality. Moreover, the information matrix under a GLMM doesn't have a closed-form expression. My dissertation includes three topics related to this design problem. The first part is searching for locally optimal designs under GLMMs with longitudinal data. I apply penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) method to approximate the information matrix and compare several approximations to show the superiority of PQL over other approximations. Under different local parameters and design restrictions, locally D- and A- optimal designs are constructed based on the approximation. An interesting finding is that locally optimal designs sometimes apply different designs to different subjects. Finally, the robustness of these locally optimal designs is discussed. In the second part, an unknown observational covariate is added to the previous model. With an unknown observational variable in the experiment, expected optimality criteria are considered. Under different assumptions of the unknown variable and parameter settings, locally optimal designs are constructed and discussed. In the last part, Bayesian optimal designs are considered under logistic mixed models. Considering different priors of the local parameters, Bayesian optimal designs are generated. Bayesian design under such a model is usually expensive in time. The running time in this dissertation is optimized to an acceptable amount with accurate results. I also discuss the robustness of these Bayesian optimal designs, which is the motivation of applying such an approach.
ContributorsShi, Yao (Author) / Stufken, John (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Thesis advisor) / Lan, Shiwei (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial in assessing the reliability of predictivemodels that make decisions for human experts in a data-rich world. The Bayesian approach to UQ for inverse problems has gained popularity. However, addressing UQ in high-dimensional inverse problems is challenging due to the intensity and inefficiency of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based Bayesian inference methods. Consequently, the first primary focus of this thesis is enhancing efficiency and scalability for UQ in inverse problems.
On the other hand, the omnipresence of spatiotemporal data, particularly in areas like traffic analysis, underscores the need for effectively addressing inverse problems with spatiotemporal observations. Conventional solutions often overlook spatial or temporal correlations, resulting in underutilization of spatiotemporal interactions for parameter learning. Appropriately modeling spatiotemporal observations in inverse problems thus forms another pivotal research avenue.
In terms of UQ methodologies, the calibration-emulation-sampling (CES) scheme has emerged as effective for large-dimensional problems. I introduce a novel CES approach by employing deep neural network (DNN) models during the emulation and sampling phase. This approach not only enhances computational efficiency but also diminishes sensitivity to training set variations. The newly devised “Dimension- Reduced Emulative Autoencoder Monte Carlo (DREAM)” algorithm scales Bayesian UQ up to thousands of dimensions in physics-constrained inverse problems. The algorithm’s effectiveness is exemplified through elliptic and advection-diffusion inverse problems.
In the realm of spatiotemporal modeling, I propose to use Spatiotemporal Gaussian processes (STGP) in likelihood modeling and Spatiotemporal Besov processes (STBP) in prior modeling separately. These approaches highlight the efficacy of incorporat- ing spatial and temporal information for enhanced parameter estimation and UQ. Additionally, the superiority of STGP is demonstrated compared to static and time- averaged methods in time-dependent advection-diffusion partial differential equation
(PDE) and three chaotic ordinary differential equations (ODE). Expanding upon Besov Process (BP), a method known for sparsity-promotion and edge-preservation, STBP is introduced to capture spatial data features and model temporal correlations by replacing the random coefficients in the series expansion with stochastic time functions following Q-exponential process(Q-EP). This advantage is showcased in dynamic computerized tomography (CT) reconstructions through comparison with classic STGP and a time-uncorrelated approach.
ContributorsLi, Shuyi (Author) / Lan, Shiwei (Thesis advisor) / Hahn, Paul (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Dan, Cheng (Committee member) / Lopes, Hedibert (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
In this work, the author analyzes quantitative and structural aspects of Bayesian inference using Markov kernels, Wasserstein metrics, and Kantorovich monads. In particular, the author shows the following main results: first, that Markov kernels can be viewed as Borel measurable maps with values in a Wasserstein space; second, that the Disintegration Theorem can be interpreted as a literal equality of integrals using an original theory of integration for Markov kernels; third, that the Kantorovich monad can be defined for Wasserstein metrics of any order; and finally, that, under certain assumptions, a generalized Bayes’s Law for Markov kernels provably leads to convergence of the expected posterior distribution in the Wasserstein metric. These contributions provide a basis for studying further convergence, approximation, and stability properties of Bayesian inverse maps and inference processes using a unified theoretical framework that bridges between statistical inference, machine learning, and probabilistic programming semantics.
ContributorsEikenberry, Keenan (Author) / Cochran, Douglas (Thesis advisor) / Lan, Shiwei (Thesis advisor) / Dasarathy, Gautam (Committee member) / Kotschwar, Brett (Committee member) / Shahbaba, Babak (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
As the impacts of climate change worsen in the coming decades, natural hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, leading to increased loss and risk to human livelihood. The spatio-temporal statistical approaches developed and applied in this dissertation highlight the ways in which hazard data can be leveraged to understand loss trends, build forecasts, and study societal impacts of losses. Specifically, this work makes use of the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database which is an unparalleled source of loss data for the United States. The first portion of this dissertation develops accurate loss baselines that are crucial for mitigation planning, infrastructure investment, and risk communication. This is accomplished thorough a stationarity analysis of county level losses following a normalization procedure. A wide variety of studies employ loss data without addressing stationarity assumptions or the possibility for spurious regression. This work enables the statistically rigorous application of such loss time series to modeling applications. The second portion of this work develops a novel matrix variate dynamic factor model for spatio-temporal loss data stratified across multiple correlated hazards or perils. The developed model is employed to analyze and forecast losses from convective storms, which constitute some of the highest losses covered by insurers. Adopting factor-based approach, forecasts are achieved despite the complex and often unobserved underlying drivers of these losses. The developed methodology extends the literature on dynamic factor models to matrix variate time series. Specifically, a covariance structure is imposed that is well suited to spatio-temporal problems while significantly reducing model complexity. The model is fit via the EM algorithm and Kalman filter. The third and final part of this dissertation investigates the impact of compounding hazard events on state and regional migration in the United States. Any attempt to capture trends in climate related migration must account for the inherent uncertainties surrounding climate change, natural hazard occurrences, and socioeconomic factors. For this reason, I adopt a Bayesian modeling approach that enables the explicit estimation of the inherent uncertainty. This work can provide decision-makers with greater clarity regarding the extent of knowledge on climate trends.
ContributorsBoyle, Esther Sarai (Author) / Jevtic, Petar (Thesis advisor) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis advisor) / Lan, Shiwei (Committee member) / Cheng, Dan (Committee member) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Gall, Melanie (Committee member) / Cutter, Susan (Committee member) / McNicholas, Paul (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
This dissertation centers on treatment effect estimation in the field of causal inference, and aims to expand the toolkit for effect estimation when the treatment variable is binary. Two new stochastic tree-ensemble methods for treatment effect estimation in the continuous outcome setting are presented. The Accelerated Bayesian Causal Forrest (XBCF) model handles variance via a group-specific parameter, and the Heteroskedastic version of XBCF (H-XBCF) uses a separate tree ensemble to learn covariate-dependent variance. This work also contributes to the field of survival analysis by proposing a new framework for estimating survival probabilities via density regression. Within this framework, the Heteroskedastic Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (H-XBART) model, which is also developed as part of this work, is utilized in treatment effect estimation for right-censored survival outcomes. All models have been implemented as part of the XBART R package, and their performance is evaluated via extensive simulation studies with appropriate sets of comparators. The contributed methods achieve similar levels of performance, while being orders of magnitude (sometimes as much as 100x) faster than comparator state-of-the-art methods, thus offering an exciting opportunity for treatment effect estimation in the large data setting.
ContributorsKrantsevich, Nikolay (Author) / Hahn, P Richard (Thesis advisor) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Zhou, Shuang (Committee member) / Lan, Shiwei (Committee member) / He, Jingyu (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Photolithography is among the key phases in chip manufacturing. It is also among the most expensive with manufacturing equipment valued at the hundreds of millions of dollars. It is paramount that the process is run efficiently, guaranteeing high resource utilization and low product cycle times. A key element in the operation of a photolithography system is the effective management of the reticles that are responsible for the imprinting of the circuit path on the wafers. Managing reticles means determining which are appropriate to mount on the very expensive scanners as a function of the product types being released to the system. Given the importance of the problem, several heuristic policies have been developed in the industry practice in an attempt to guarantee that the expensive tools are never idle. However, such policies have difficulties reacting to unforeseen events (e.g., unplanned failures, unavailability of reticles). On the other hand, the technological advance of the semiconductor industry in sensing at system and process level should be harnessed to improve on these “expert policies”. In this thesis, a system for the real time reticle management is developed that not only is able to retrieve information from the real system, but also can embed commonly used policies to improve upon them. A new digital twin for the photolithography process is developed that efficiently and accurately predicts the system performance thus enabling predictions for the future behaviors as a function of possible decisions. The results demonstrate the validity of the developed model, and the feasibility of the overall approach demonstrating a statistically significant improvement of performance as compared to the current policy.
ContributorsSivasubramanian, Chandrasekhar (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis advisor) / Jevtic, Petar (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Tracking disease cases is an essential task in public health; however, tracking the number of cases of a disease may be difficult not every infection can be recorded by public health authorities. Notably, this may happen with whole country measles case reports, even such countries with robust registration systems. Eilertson et al. (2019) propose using a state-space model combined with maximum likelihood methods for estimating measles transmission. A Bayesian approach that uses particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) is proposed to estimate the parameters of the non-linear state-space model developed in Eilertson et al. (2019) and similar previous studies. This dissertation illustrates the performance of this approach by calculating posterior estimates of the model parameters and predictions of the unobserved states in simulations and case studies. Also, Iteration Filtering (IF2) is used as a support method to verify the Bayesian estimation and to inform the selection of prior distributions. In the second half of the thesis, a birth-death process is proposed to model the unobserved population size of a disease vector. This model studies the effect of a disease vector population size on a second affected population. The second population follows a non-homogenous Poisson process when conditioned on the vector process with a transition rate given by a scaled version of the vector population. The observation model also measures a potential threshold event when the host species population size surpasses a certain level yielding a higher transmission rate. A maximum likelihood procedure is developed for this model, which combines particle filtering with the Minorize-Maximization (MM) algorithm and extends the work of Crawford et al. (2014).
ContributorsMartinez Rivera, Wilmer Osvaldo (Author) / Fricks, John (Thesis advisor) / Reiser, Mark (Committee member) / Zhou, Shuang (Committee member) / Cheng, Dan (Committee member) / Lan, Shiwei (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Game theory, the mathematical study of mathematical models and simulations that often play out like a game, is applicable to a plethora of disciplines, one of which is infrastructure security. This is a rather new and niche subject area, and our aim is to perform a bibliographic analysis to analyze the thematic makeup of a selected body of publications in this area, as well as analyze trends in paper publication, journal contributions, country contributions, and trends in the authorship of the publications.
ContributorsChandra, Varun (Author) / Jevtic, Petar (Thesis director) / Gall, Melanie (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2022-05