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Industry-specific discretionary accruals and earnings management

Description

In this dissertation, I examine the source of some of the anomalous capital market outcomes that have been documented for firms with high accruals. Chapter 2 develops and implements a methodology that decomposes a firm's discretionary accruals into a firm-specific and an industry-specific component. I use this decomposition to investigate…

In this dissertation, I examine the source of some of the anomalous capital market outcomes that have been documented for firms with high accruals. Chapter 2 develops and implements a methodology that decomposes a firm's discretionary accruals into a firm-specific and an industry-specific component. I use this decomposition to investigate which component drives the subsequent negative returns associated with firms with high discretionary accruals. My results suggest that these abnormal returns are driven by the firm-specific component of discretionary accruals. Moreover, although industry-specific discretionary accruals do not directly contribute towards this anomaly, I find that it is precisely when industry-specific discretionary accruals are high that firms with high firm-specific discretionary accruals subsequently earn these negative returns. While consistent with irrational mispricing or a rational risk premium associated with high discretionary accruals, these findings also support a transactions-cost based explanation for the accruals anomaly whereby search costs associated with distinguishing between value-relevant and manipulative discretionary accruals can induce investors to overlook potential earnings manipulation. Chapter 3 extends the decomposition to examine the role of firm-specific and industry-specific discretionary accruals in explaining the subsequent market underperformance and negative analysts' forecast errors documented for firms issuing equity. I examine the post-issue market returns and analysts' forecast errors for a sample of seasoned equity issues between 1975 and 2004 and find that offering-year firm-specific discretionary accruals can partially explain these anomalous capital market outcomes. Nonetheless, I find this predictive power of firm-specific accruals to be more pronounced for issues that occur during 1975 - 1989 compared to issues taking place between 1990 and 2004. Additionally, I find no evidence that investors and analysts are more overoptimistic about the prospects of issuers that have both high firm-specific and industry-specific discretionary accruals (compared to firms with high discretionary accruals in general). The results indicate no role for industry-specific discretionary accruals in explaining overoptimistic expectations from seasoned equity issues and suggest the importance of firm-specific factors in inducing earnings manipulation surrounding equity issues.

ContributorsIkram, Atif (Author) / Coles, Jeffrey (Thesis advisor) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2011

Company X Digital Education Thesis Project

Description

This paper goes does a market analysis on Inter Active Flat Panel Displays (IFPDs), and talks about how company X can grow its market share in IFPDs.

ContributorsKoroli, Eri (Co-author) / Phillips, Maya (Co-author) / Morales, Herwin (Co-author) / Hauck, Tanner (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

Stock Price Performance in the Covid-19 Era: A Five-Phase Analysis

Description

The Covid-19 pandemic has made a significant impact on both the stock market and the global economy. The resulting volatility in stock prices has provided an opportunity to examine the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This study aims to gain insights into the efficiency of markets based on stock price performance in the Covid era.…

The Covid-19 pandemic has made a significant impact on both the stock market and the global economy. The resulting volatility in stock prices has provided an opportunity to examine the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This study aims to gain insights into the efficiency of markets based on stock price performance in the Covid era. Specifically, it investigates the market’s ability to anticipate significant events during the Covid-19 timeline beginning November 1, 2019 and ending March 31, 2021. To examine the efficiency of markets, our team created a Stay-at- Home Portfolio, experiencing economic tailwinds from the Covid lockdowns, and a Pandemic Loser Portfolio, experiencing economic headwinds from the Covid lockdowns. Cumulative returns of each portfolio are benchmarked to the cumulative returns of the S&P 500. The results showed that the Efficient Market Hypothesis is likely to be valid, although a definitive conclusion cannot be made based on the scope of the analysis. There are recommendations for further research surrounding key events that may be able to draw a more direct conclusion.

ContributorsBrock, Matt Ian (Co-author) / Beneduce, Trevor (Co-author) / Craig, Nicko (Co-author) / Hertzel, Michael (Thesis director) / Mindlin, Jeff (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

Stock Price Performance In The Covid-19 Era: A Five-Phase Analysis

Description

The Covid-19 pandemic has made a significant impact on both the stock market and the global economy. The resulting volatility in stock prices has provided an opportunity to examine the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This study aims to gain insights into the efficiency of markets based on stock price performance in…

The Covid-19 pandemic has made a significant impact on both the stock market and the global economy. The resulting volatility in stock prices has provided an opportunity to examine the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This study aims to gain insights into the efficiency of markets based on stock price performance in the Covid era. Specifically, it investigates the market’s ability to anticipate significant events during the Covid-19 timeline beginning November 1, 2019 and ending March 31, 2021. To examine the efficiency of markets, our team created a Stay-at-Home Portfolio, experiencing economic tailwinds from the Covid lockdowns, and a Pandemic Loser Portfolio, experiencing economic headwinds from the Covid lockdowns. Cumulative returns of each portfolio are benchmarked to the cumulative returns of the S&P 500. The results showed that the Efficient Market Hypothesis is likely to be valid, although a definitive conclusion cannot be made based on the scope of the analysis. There are recommendations for further research surrounding key events that may be able to draw a more direct conclusion.

ContributorsCraig, Nicholas (Co-author) / Beneduce, Trevor (Co-author) / Brock, Matt (Co-author) / Hertzel, Michael (Thesis director) / Mindlin, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

Company X Collaborative Thesis: Real Estate

Description

The COVID-19 pandemic has and will continue to radically shift the workplace. An increasing percentage of the workforce desires flexible working options and, as such, firms are likely to require less office space going forward. Additionally, the economic downturn caused by the pandemic provides an opportunity for companies to secure…

The COVID-19 pandemic has and will continue to radically shift the workplace. An increasing percentage of the workforce desires flexible working options and, as such, firms are likely to require less office space going forward. Additionally, the economic downturn caused by the pandemic provides an opportunity for companies to secure favorable rent rates on new lease agreements. This project aims to evaluate and measure Company X’s potential cost savings from terminating current leases and downsizing office space in five selected cities. Along with city-specific real estate market research and forecasts, we employ a four-stage model of Company X’s real estate negotiation process to analyze whether existing lease agreements in these cities should be renewed or terminated.

ContributorsHegardt, Brandon Michael (Co-author) / Saker, Logan (Co-author) / Patterson, Jack (Co-author) / Ries, Sarah (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

Employee stock option exercise behavior and firms' claims about employee stock option expense

Description

This dissertation analyzes the reliability of reported employee stock option (ESO) expense, the determination of expected life of ESOs, motivations to manipulate ESO expense, and the impact of noise in ESO expense on subsequent stock price returns. Based on unique data, this is the first paper to measure average historical…

This dissertation analyzes the reliability of reported employee stock option (ESO) expense, the determination of expected life of ESOs, motivations to manipulate ESO expense, and the impact of noise in ESO expense on subsequent stock price returns. Based on unique data, this is the first paper to measure average historical ESO life for all employees of a broad set of firms. I find average life has a mean of 4.12 years. Average life is reduced by 0.38 years per 10 percentage point increase in volatility, and industry effects explain an additional 7% of the variation. Reported expected life increases 0.37 years per year of historical life and an additional 0.16 years per year of age of the outstanding options. Deviations of reported volatility and life from benchmarks have positive correlations with deviations from own reporting history. Using stated assumptions rather than benchmark assumptions drops (increases) ESO expense by 8.3% (17.6%) for the 25th (75th) percentile firm. The change in earnings per share decreases (increases) by $0.019 ($0.007) for the 25th (75th) percentile firm. Tests for motivations to manipulate stock option expense downward have mixed results. Absolute values of deviations from benchmarks have a positive relationship with subsequent stock price volatility suggesting noise in reported stock option expense results in stock price noise. Deviations from benchmarks and subsequent cumulative abnormal returns have statistically significant results but are difficult to interpret.

ContributorsYoung, Brian (Author) / Coles, Jeffrey (Thesis advisor) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Babenko, Ilona (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2011

The impact of portfolio disclosure on hedge fund performance, fees, and flows

Description

This study investigates the impact of portfolio disclosure on hedge fund performance. Using a regression discontinuity design, I investigate the effect of the disclosure requirements that take effect when an investment company's assets exceed $100 million; when that occurs, a fund is required by the SEC to submit form 13F…

This study investigates the impact of portfolio disclosure on hedge fund performance. Using a regression discontinuity design, I investigate the effect of the disclosure requirements that take effect when an investment company's assets exceed $100 million; when that occurs, a fund is required by the SEC to submit form 13F disclosing its portfolio holdings. Consistent with the argument that portfolio disclosure reveals "trade secrets" and also raises front running costs thus harms the funds that disclose, I find that there is a drop in fund performance (about 4% annually) after a fund begins filing form 13F, as well as an increase in return correlations with other hedge funds in the same investment style. The drop in performance cannot be explained by a change in the assets under management or a mean reversion in returns. Consistent with the idea that funds with illiquid holdings tend to employ sequential trading strategies, which increase the likelihood of being taken advantage of by free riders and front runners, the drop in performance is more dramatic for funds that have more illiquid holdings. In addition, I find that the incentive fees paid to fund managers are 1% higher when portfolio disclosure is required, which supports the hypothesis that investors' monitoring of portfolio holdings disciplines adverse risk-taking by fund managers and allows for higher convexity in the optimal compensation structure. Finally, there is a drop in flows into funds that file 13F, which suggests that hedge fund investors negatively value 13F disclosure. Overall, this study suggests that the cost of portfolio disclosure is economically large. It contributes to the policy debate over what constitutes optimal disclosure.

ContributorsShi, Zhen (Author) / Hertzel, Michael (Thesis advisor) / Aragon, Georges (Thesis advisor) / Coles, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2011

Inventory accumulation, cash flow, and corporate investment

Description

I show that firms' ability to adjust variable capital in response to productivity shocks has important implications for the interpretation of the widely documented investment-cash flow sensitivities. The variable capital adjustment is sufficient for firms to capture small variations in profitability, but when the revision in profitability is relatively large,…

I show that firms' ability to adjust variable capital in response to productivity shocks has important implications for the interpretation of the widely documented investment-cash flow sensitivities. The variable capital adjustment is sufficient for firms to capture small variations in profitability, but when the revision in profitability is relatively large, limited substitutability between the factors of production may call for fixed capital investment. Hence, firms with lower substitutability are more likely to invest in both factors together and have larger sensitivities of fixed capital investment to cash flow. By building a frictionless capital markets model that allows firms to optimize over fixed capital and inventories as substitutable factors, I establish the significance of the substitutability channel in explaining cross-sectional differences in cash flow sensitivities. Moreover, incorporating variable capital into firms' investment decisions helps explain the sharp decrease in cash flow sensitivities over the past decades. Empirical evidence confirms the model's predictions.

ContributorsKim, Kirak (Author) / Bates, Thomas (Thesis advisor) / Babenko, Ilona (Thesis advisor) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

Mutual monitoring and corporate governance

Description

Mutual monitoring in a well-structured authority system can mitigate the agency problem. I empirically examine whether the number 2 executive in a firm, if given authority, incentive, and channels for communication and influence, is able to monitor and constrain the potentially self-interested CEO. I find strong evidence that: (1) measures…

Mutual monitoring in a well-structured authority system can mitigate the agency problem. I empirically examine whether the number 2 executive in a firm, if given authority, incentive, and channels for communication and influence, is able to monitor and constrain the potentially self-interested CEO. I find strong evidence that: (1) measures of the presence and extent of mutual monitoring from the No. 2 executive are positively related to future firm value (Tobin's Q); (2) the beneficial effect is more pronounced for firms with weaker corporate governance or CEO incentive alignment, with stronger incentives for the No. 2 executives to monitor, and with higher information asymmetry between the boards and the CEOs; (3) such mutual monitoring reduces the CEO's ability to pursue the "quiet life" but has no effect on "empire building;" and (4) mutual monitoring is a substitute for other governance mechanisms. The results suggest that mutual monitoring by a No. 2 executive provides checks and balances on CEO power.

ContributorsLi, Zhichuan (Author) / Coles, Jeffrey (Thesis advisor) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Bharath, Sreedhar (Committee member) / Babenko, Ilona (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2012

Information conduit or agency cost: top management and director interlock between acquirers and targets

Description

This paper investigates the role of top management and board interlocks between acquirers and targets. I hypothesize that an interlock may exacerbate agency problems due to conflicting interests and lead to value-decreasing acquisition. An interlock may also serve as a conduit of information and personal experience, and reduce the cost…

This paper investigates the role of top management and board interlocks between acquirers and targets. I hypothesize that an interlock may exacerbate agency problems due to conflicting interests and lead to value-decreasing acquisition. An interlock may also serve as a conduit of information and personal experience, and reduce the cost of information gathering for both firms. I find supporting evidence for these two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses. Consistent with the agency hypothesis, interlocked acquirers underperform non-interlocked acquirers by 2% during the announcement period. However, well-governed acquirers receive higher announcement returns and have better post-acquisition performance in interlocked deals. The proportional surplus accrued to an acquirer is positively correlated with the interlocking agent's ownership in the acquirer relative to her ownership in the target. Consistent with the information hypothesis, when the target's firm value is opaque, interlocks improve acquirer announcement returns and long-term performance. Interlocked acquirers are also more likely to use equity as payment, especially when the acquirer's stock value is opaque. Target announcement returns are not influenced by the existence of interlock. Finally, I find acquisitions are more likely to occur between two interlocked firms and such deals have a higher completion rate.

ContributorsWu, Qingqing (Author) / Bates, Thomas W. (Thesis advisor) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Lindsey, Laura (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2012