Matching Items (19)
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Description
Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a

Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a non-negligible incubation period. Understanding how this latency affects spatial spread of rabies in wildlife is the concern of chapter 2 and 3. Chapter 1 deals with the background of mathematical models for rabies and lists main objectives. In chapter 2, a reaction-diffusion susceptible-exposed-infected (SEI) model and a delayed diffusive susceptible-infected (SI) model are constructed to describe the same epidemic process -- rabies spread in foxes. For the delayed diffusive model a non-local infection term with delay is resulted from modeling the dispersal during incubation stage. Comparison is made regarding minimum traveling wave speeds of the two models, which are verified using numerical experiments. In chapter 3, starting with two Kermack and McKendrick's models where infectivity, death rate and diffusion rate of infected individuals can depend on the age of infection, the asymptotic speed of spread $c^\ast$ for the cumulated force of infection can be analyzed. For the special case of fixed incubation period, the asymptotic speed of spread is governed by the same integral equation for both models. Although explicit solutions for $c^\ast$ are difficult to obtain, assuming that diffusion coefficient of incubating animals is small, $c^\ast$ can be estimated in terms of model parameter values. Chapter 4 considers the implementation of realistic landscape in simulation of rabies spread in skunks and bats in northeast Texas. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is adopted because the irregular shapes of realistic landscape naturally lead to unstructured grids in the spatial domain. This implementation leads to a more accurate description of skunk rabies cases distributions.
ContributorsLiu, Hao (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
In complex consumer-resource type systems, where diverse individuals are interconnected and interdependent, one can often anticipate what has become known as the tragedy of the commons, i.e., a situation, when overly efficient consumers exhaust the common resource, causing collapse of the entire population. In this dissertation I use mathematical modeling

In complex consumer-resource type systems, where diverse individuals are interconnected and interdependent, one can often anticipate what has become known as the tragedy of the commons, i.e., a situation, when overly efficient consumers exhaust the common resource, causing collapse of the entire population. In this dissertation I use mathematical modeling to explore different variations on the consumer-resource type systems, identifying some possible transitional regimes that can precede the tragedy of the commons. I then reformulate it as a game of a multi-player prisoner's dilemma and study two possible approaches for preventing it, namely direct modification of players' payoffs through punishment/reward and modification of the environment in which the interactions occur. I also investigate the questions of whether the strategy of resource allocation for reproduction or competition would yield higher fitness in an evolving consumer-resource type system and demonstrate that the direction in which the system will evolve will depend not only on the state of the environment but largely on the initial composition of the population. I then apply the developed framework to modeling cancer as an evolving ecological system and draw conclusions about some alternative approaches to cancer treatment.
ContributorsKareva, Irina (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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Description
Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both

Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both susceptible and resistant bacteria species, as well as phage, can coexist at an equilibrium for hundreds of hours. The current research is inspired by these observations, and the goal is to establish a mathematical model and explore sufficient and necessary conditions for the coexistence. In this dissertation a model with infinite distributed delay terms based on some existing work is established. A rigorous analysis of the well-posedness of this model is provided, and it is proved that the susceptible bacteria persist. To study the persistence of phage species, a "Phage Reproduction Number" (PRN) is defined. The mathematical analysis shows phage persist if PRN > 1 and vanish if PRN < 1. A sufficient condition and a necessary condition for persistence of resistant bacteria are given. The persistence of the phage is essential for the persistence of resistant bacteria. Also, the resistant bacteria persist if its fitness is the same as the susceptible bacteria and if PRN > 1. A special case of the general model leads to a system of ordinary differential equations, for which numerical simulation results are presented.
ContributorsHan, Zhun (Author) / Smith, Hal (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Kawski, Matthias (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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Description
Serge Galams voting systems and public debate models are used to model voting behaviors of two competing opinions in democratic societies. Galam assumes that individuals in the population are independently in favor of one opinion with a fixed probability p, making the initial number of that type of opinion a

Serge Galams voting systems and public debate models are used to model voting behaviors of two competing opinions in democratic societies. Galam assumes that individuals in the population are independently in favor of one opinion with a fixed probability p, making the initial number of that type of opinion a binomial random variable. This analysis revisits Galams models from the point of view of the hypergeometric random variable by assuming the initial number of individuals in favor of an opinion is a fixed deterministic number. This assumption is more realistic, especially when analyzing small populations. Evolution of the models is based on majority rules, with a bias introduced when there is a tie. For the hier- archical voting system model, in order to derive the probability that opinion +1 would win, the analysis was done by reversing time and assuming that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins. Then, working backwards we counted the number of configurations at the next lowest level that could induce each possible configuration at the level above, and continued this process until reaching the bottom level, i.e., the initial population. Using this method, we were able to derive an explicit formula for the probability that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins given any initial count of that opinion, for any group size greater than or equal to three. For the public debate model, we counted the total number of individuals in favor of opinion +1 at each time step and used this variable to define a random walk. Then, we used first-step analysis to derive an explicit formula for the probability that an individual in favor of opinion +1 wins given any initial count of that opinion for group sizes of three. The spatial public debate model evolves based on the proportional rule. For the spatial model, the most natural graphical representation to construct the process results in a model that is not mathematically tractable. Thus, we defined a different graphical representation that is mathematically equivalent to the first graphical representation, but in this model it is possible to define a dual process that is mathematically tractable. Using this graphical representation we prove clustering in 1D and 2D and coexistence in higher dimensions following the same approach as for the voter model interacting particle system.
ContributorsTaylor, Nicole Robyn (Co-author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Co-author, Thesis director) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Hurlbert, Glenn (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
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Description
The dissipative shallow-water equations (SWE) possess both real-world application and extensive analysis in theoretical partial differential equations. This analysis is dominated by modeling the dissipation as diffusion, with its mathematical representation being the Laplacian. However, the usage of the biharmonic as a dissipative operator by oceanographers and atmospheric scientists and

The dissipative shallow-water equations (SWE) possess both real-world application and extensive analysis in theoretical partial differential equations. This analysis is dominated by modeling the dissipation as diffusion, with its mathematical representation being the Laplacian. However, the usage of the biharmonic as a dissipative operator by oceanographers and atmospheric scientists and its underwhelming amount of analysis indicates a gap in SWE theory. In order to provide rigorous mathematical justification for the utilization of these equations in simulations with real-world implications, we extend an energy method utilized by Matsumura and Nishida for initial value problems relating to the equations of motion for compressible, vsicous, heat-conductive fluids ([6], [7]) and applied by Kloeden to the diffusive SWE ([4]) to prove global time existence of classical solutions to the biharmonic SWE. In particular, we develop appropriate a priori growth estimates that allow one to extend the solution's temporal existence infinitely under sufficient constraints on initial data and external forcing, resulting in convergence to steady-state.
ContributorsKofroth, Collin Michael (Author) / Jones, Don (Thesis director) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
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Description
The role of climate change, as measured in terms of changes in the climatology of geophysical variables (such as temperature and rainfall), on the global distribution and burden of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) remains a subject of considerable debate. This dissertation attempts to contribute to this debate via the use of

The role of climate change, as measured in terms of changes in the climatology of geophysical variables (such as temperature and rainfall), on the global distribution and burden of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) remains a subject of considerable debate. This dissertation attempts to contribute to this debate via the use of mathematical (compartmental) modeling and statistical data analysis. In particular, the objective is to find suitable values and/or ranges of the climate variables considered (typically temperature and rainfall) for maximum vector abundance and consequently, maximum transmission intensity of the disease(s) they cause.

Motivated by the fact that understanding the dynamics of disease vector is crucial to understanding the transmission and control of the VBDs they cause, a novel weather-driven deterministic model for the population biology of the mosquito is formulated and rigorously analyzed. Numerical simulations, using relevant weather and entomological data for Anopheles mosquito (the vector for malaria), show that maximum mosquito abundance occurs when temperature and rainfall values lie in the range [20-25]C and [105-115] mm, respectively.

The Anopheles mosquito ecology model is extended to incorporate human dynamics. The resulting weather-driven malaria transmission model, which includes many of the key aspects of malaria (such as disease transmission by asymptomatically-infectious humans, and enhanced malaria immunity due to repeated exposure), was rigorously analyzed. The model which also incorporates the effect of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on malaria transmission dynamics shows that increasing DTR shifts the peak temperature value for malaria transmission from 29C (when DTR is 0C) to about 25C (when DTR is 15C).

Finally, the malaria model is adapted and used to study the transmission dynamics of chikungunya, dengue and Zika, three diseases co-circulating in the Americas caused by the same vector (Aedes aegypti). The resulting model, which is fitted using data from Mexico, is used to assess a few hypotheses (such as those associated with the possible impact the newly-released dengue vaccine will have on Zika) and the impact of variability in climate variables on the dynamics of the three diseases. Suitable temperature and rainfall ranges for the maximum transmission intensity of the three diseases are obtained.
ContributorsOkuneye, Kamaldeen O (Author) / Gumel, Abba B (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
The main part of this work establishes existence, uniqueness and regularity properties of measure-valued solutions of a nonlinear hyperbolic conservation law with non-local velocities. Major challenges stem from in- and out-fluxes containing nonzero pure-point parts which cause discontinuities of the velocities. This part is preceded, and motivated, by an extended

The main part of this work establishes existence, uniqueness and regularity properties of measure-valued solutions of a nonlinear hyperbolic conservation law with non-local velocities. Major challenges stem from in- and out-fluxes containing nonzero pure-point parts which cause discontinuities of the velocities. This part is preceded, and motivated, by an extended study which proves that an associated optimal control problem has no optimal $L^1$-solutions that are supported on short time intervals.

The hyperbolic conservation law considered here is a well-established model for a highly re-entrant semiconductor manufacturing system. Prior work established well-posedness for $L^1$-controls and states, and existence of optimal solutions for $L^2$-controls, states, and control objectives. The results on measure-valued solutions presented here reduce to the existing literature in the case of initial state and in-flux being absolutely continuous measures. The surprising well-posedness (in the face of measures containing nonzero pure-point part and discontinuous velocities) is directly related to characteristic features of the model that capture the highly re-entrant nature of the semiconductor manufacturing system.

More specifically, the optimal control problem is to minimize an $L^1$-functional that measures the mismatch between actual and desired accumulated out-flux. The focus is on the transition between equilibria with eventually zero backlog. In the case of a step up to a larger equilibrium, the in-flux not only needs to increase to match the higher desired out-flux, but also needs to increase the mass in the factory and to make up for the backlog caused by an inverse response of the system. The optimality results obtained confirm the heuristic inference that the optimal solution should be an impulsive in-flux, but this is no longer in the space of $L^1$-controls.

The need for impulsive controls motivates the change of the setting from $L^1$-controls and states to controls and states that are Borel measures. The key strategy is to temporarily abandon the Eulerian point of view and first construct Lagrangian solutions. The final section proposes a notion of weak measure-valued solutions and proves existence and uniqueness of such.

In the case of the in-flux containing nonzero pure-point part, the weak solution cannot depend continuously on the time with respect to any norm. However, using semi-norms that are related to the flat norm, a weaker form of continuity of solutions with respect to time is proven. It is conjectured that also a similar weak continuous dependence on initial data holds with respect to a variant of the flat norm.
ContributorsGong, Xiaoqian, Ph.D (Author) / Kawski, Matthias (Thesis advisor) / Kaliszewski, Steven (Committee member) / Motsch, Sebastien (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description
Rabies is an infectious viral disease. It is usually fatal if a victim reaches the rabid stage, which starts after the appearance of disease symptoms. The disease virus attacks the central nervous system, and then it migrates from peripheral nerves to the spinal cord and brain. At the time when

Rabies is an infectious viral disease. It is usually fatal if a victim reaches the rabid stage, which starts after the appearance of disease symptoms. The disease virus attacks the central nervous system, and then it migrates from peripheral nerves to the spinal cord and brain. At the time when the rabies virus reaches the brain, the incubation period is over and the symptoms of clinical disease appear on the victim. From the brain, the virus travels via nerves to the salivary glands and saliva.

A mathematical model is developed for the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population to model the spread of the rabies epizootic through middle Europe that occurred in the second half of the 20th century. The model considers both territorial and wandering rabid foxes and includes a latent period for the infection. Since the model assumes these two kinds of rabid foxes, it is a system of both partial differential and integral equations (with integration

over space and, occasionally, also over time). To study the spreading speeds of the rabies epidemic, the model is reduced to a scalar Volterra-Hammerstein integral equation, and space-time Laplace transform of the integral equation is used to derive implicit formulas for the spreading speed. The spreading speeds are discussed and implicit formulas are given for latent periods of fixed length, exponentially distributed length, Gamma distributed length, and log-normally distributed length. A number of analytic and numerical results are shown pertaining to the spreading speeds.

Further, a numerical algorithm is described for the simulation

of the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population on a bounded domain with Dirichlet boundary conditions. I propose the following methods for the numerical approximation of solutions. The partial differential and integral equations are discretized in the space variable by central differences of second order and by

the composite trapezoidal rule. Next, the ordinary or delay differential equations that are obtained this way are discretized in time by explicit

continuous Runge-Kutta methods of fourth order for ordinary and delay differential systems. My particular interest

is in how the partition of rabid foxes into

territorial and diffusing rabid foxes influences

the spreading speed, a question that can be answered by purely analytic means only for small basic reproduction numbers. I will restrict the numerical analysis

to latent periods of fixed length and to exponentially

distributed latent periods.

The results of the numerical calculations

are compared for latent periods

of fixed and exponentially distributed length

and for various proportions of territorial

and wandering rabid foxes.

The speeds of spread observed in the

simulations are compared

to spreading speeds obtained by numerically solving the analytic formulas

and to observed speeds of epizootic frontlines

in the European rabies outbreak 1940 to 1980.
ContributorsAlanazi, Khalaf Matar (Author) / Thieme, Horst R. (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Mathematical models are important tools for addressing problems that exceed experimental capabilities. In this work, I present ordinary and partial differential equation (ODE, PDE) models for two problems: Vicodin abuse and impact cratering.

The prescription opioid Vicodin is the nation's most widely prescribed pain reliever. The majority of Vicodin abusers

Mathematical models are important tools for addressing problems that exceed experimental capabilities. In this work, I present ordinary and partial differential equation (ODE, PDE) models for two problems: Vicodin abuse and impact cratering.

The prescription opioid Vicodin is the nation's most widely prescribed pain reliever. The majority of Vicodin abusers are first introduced via prescription, distinguishing it from other drugs in which the most common path to abuse begins with experimentation. I develop and analyze two mathematical models of Vicodin use and abuse, considering only those patients with an initial Vicodin prescription. Through adjoint sensitivity analysis, I show that focusing efforts on prevention rather than treatment has greater success at reducing the total population of abusers. I prove that solutions to each model exist, are unique, and are non-negative. I also derive conditions for which these solutions are asymptotically stable.

Verification and Validation (V&V) are necessary processes to ensure accuracy of computational methods. Simulations are essential for addressing impact cratering problems, because these problems often exceed experimental capabilities. I show that the Free Lagrange (FLAG) hydrocode, developed and maintained by Los Alamos National Laboratory, can be used for impact cratering simulations by verifying FLAG against two analytical models of aluminum-on-aluminum impacts at different impact velocities and validating FLAG against a glass-into-water laboratory impact experiment. My verification results show good agreement with the theoretical maximum pressures, and my mesh resolution study shows that FLAG converges at resolutions low enough to reduce the required computation time from about 28 hours to about 25 minutes.

Asteroid 16 Psyche is the largest M-type (metallic) asteroid in the Main Asteroid Belt. Radar albedo data indicate Psyche's surface is rich in metallic content, but estimates for Psyche's composition vary widely. Psyche has two large impact structures in its Southern hemisphere, with estimated diameters from 50 km to 70 km and estimated depths up to 6.4 km. I use the FLAG hydrocode to model the formation of the largest of these impact structures. My results indicate an oblique angle of impact rather than a vertical impact. These results also support previous claims that Psyche is metallic and porous.
ContributorsCaldwell, Wendy K (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Asphaug, Erik (Committee member) / Camacho, Erika T (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Plesko, Catherine S (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description
This dissertation examines six different models in the field of econophysics using interacting particle systems as the basis of exploration. In each model examined, the underlying structure is a graph G = (V , E ), where each x ∈ V represents an individual who is characterized by the number

This dissertation examines six different models in the field of econophysics using interacting particle systems as the basis of exploration. In each model examined, the underlying structure is a graph G = (V , E ), where each x ∈ V represents an individual who is characterized by the number of coins in her possession at time t. At each time step t, an edge (x, y) ∈ E is chosen at random, resulting in an exchange of coins between individuals x and y according to the rules of the model. Random variables ξt, and ξt(x) keep track of the current configuration and number of coins individual x has at time t respectively. Of particular interest is the distribution of coins in the long run. Considered first are the uniform reshuffling model, immediate exchange model and model with saving propensity. For each of these models, the number of coins an individual can have is nonnegative and the total number of coins in the system is conserved for all time. It is shown here that the distribution of coins converges to the exponential distribution, gamma distribution and a pseudo gamma distribution respectively. The next two models introduce debt, however, the total number of coins again remains fixed. It is shown here that when there is an individual debt limit, the number of coins per individual converges to a shifted exponential distribution. Alternatively, when a collective debt limit is imposed on the whole population, a heuristic argument is given supporting the conjecture that the distribution of coins converges to an asymmetric Laplace distribution. The final model considered focuses on the effect of cooperation on a population. Unlike the previous models discussed here, the total number of coins in the system at any given time is not bounded and the process evolves in continuous time rather than in discrete time. For this model, death of an individual will occur if they run out of coins. It is shown here that the survival probability for the population is impacted by the level of cooperation along with how productive the population is as whole.
ContributorsReed, Stephanie Jo (Author) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Thesis advisor) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Gumel, Abba (Committee member) / Motsch, Sebastien (Committee member) / Camacho, Erika (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019