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The NFL is one of largest and most influential industries in the world. In America there are few companies that have a stronger hold on the American culture and create such a phenomena from year to year. In this project aimed to develop a strategy that helps an NFL team be as successful as possible by defining which positions are most important to a team's success. Data from fifteen years of NFL games was collected and information on every player in the league was analyzed. First there needed to be a benchmark which describes a team as being average and then every player in the NFL must be compared to that average. Based on properties of linear regression using ordinary least squares this project aims to define such a model that shows each position's importance. Finally, once such a model had been established then the focus turned to the NFL draft in which the goal was to find a strategy of where each position needs to be drafted so that it is most likely to give the best payoff based on the results of the regression in part one.
ContributorsBalzer, Kevin Ryan (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Dassanayake, Maduranga (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Objective: To assess and quantify the effect of state’s price transparency regulations (hereafter, PTR) on healthcare pricing.
Data Sources: I use the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project’s Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2000 to 2011. The NIS is a 20% sample of all inpatient claims. The Manhattan Institute supplied data on the availability of health savings accounts in each state. State PTR implementation dates were gathered by Hans Christensen, Eric Floyd, and Mark Maffett of University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business by contacting the health department, hospital association, or website controller in each state.
Study Design: The NIS data was collapsed by procedure, hospital, and year providing averages for the dependent variable, Cost, and a host of covariates. Cost is a product of Total Charges within the NIS and the hospital’s Cost to Charge ratio. A new binary variable, PTR, was defined as ‘0’ if the year was strictly less than the disclosure website’s implementation date, ‘1’ for afterwards, and missing for the year of implementation. Then, using multivariate OLS regression with fixed effect modeling, the change in cost from before to after the year of implementation is estimated.
Principal Findings: The analysis estimates the effect of PTR to decrease the average cost per procedure by 7%. Specifications identify within state, within hospital, and within procedure variation, and reports that 78% of the cost decrease is due to within-hospital, within-procedure price discounts. An additional model includes the interaction of PTR with the prevalence of health savings accounts (hereafter, HSAs) and procedure electivity. The results show that PTR lowers costs by an additional 3 percent with each additional 10 percentage point increase in the availability of HSAs. In contrast, the cost reductions from PTR were much smaller for procedures more frequently coded as elective.
Conclusions: The study concludes price transparency regulations can lead to a decrease in a procedure’s costs on average, primarily through price discounts and slightly through lower cost procedures, but not due to patients moving to cheaper hospitals. This implies that hospitals are taking initiative and lowering prices as the competition’s prices become publically available suggesting that hospitals – not patients – are the biggest users of price transparency websites. Hospitals are also finding some ways to provide cheaper alternatives to more expensive procedures. State regulators should evaluate if a better metric other than charge prices, such as expected out-of-pocket payments, would evoke greater patient participation. Furthermore, states with higher prevalence of HSAs experience greater effects of PTR as expected since patients with HSAs have greater incentives to lower their costs. Patients should expect a shift towards plans that offer these types of savings accounts since they’ve shown to have a reduction of health costs on average per procedure in states with higher prevalence of HSAs.
Data Sources: I use the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project’s Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2000 to 2011. The NIS is a 20% sample of all inpatient claims. The Manhattan Institute supplied data on the availability of health savings accounts in each state. State PTR implementation dates were gathered by Hans Christensen, Eric Floyd, and Mark Maffett of University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business by contacting the health department, hospital association, or website controller in each state.
Study Design: The NIS data was collapsed by procedure, hospital, and year providing averages for the dependent variable, Cost, and a host of covariates. Cost is a product of Total Charges within the NIS and the hospital’s Cost to Charge ratio. A new binary variable, PTR, was defined as ‘0’ if the year was strictly less than the disclosure website’s implementation date, ‘1’ for afterwards, and missing for the year of implementation. Then, using multivariate OLS regression with fixed effect modeling, the change in cost from before to after the year of implementation is estimated.
Principal Findings: The analysis estimates the effect of PTR to decrease the average cost per procedure by 7%. Specifications identify within state, within hospital, and within procedure variation, and reports that 78% of the cost decrease is due to within-hospital, within-procedure price discounts. An additional model includes the interaction of PTR with the prevalence of health savings accounts (hereafter, HSAs) and procedure electivity. The results show that PTR lowers costs by an additional 3 percent with each additional 10 percentage point increase in the availability of HSAs. In contrast, the cost reductions from PTR were much smaller for procedures more frequently coded as elective.
Conclusions: The study concludes price transparency regulations can lead to a decrease in a procedure’s costs on average, primarily through price discounts and slightly through lower cost procedures, but not due to patients moving to cheaper hospitals. This implies that hospitals are taking initiative and lowering prices as the competition’s prices become publically available suggesting that hospitals – not patients – are the biggest users of price transparency websites. Hospitals are also finding some ways to provide cheaper alternatives to more expensive procedures. State regulators should evaluate if a better metric other than charge prices, such as expected out-of-pocket payments, would evoke greater patient participation. Furthermore, states with higher prevalence of HSAs experience greater effects of PTR as expected since patients with HSAs have greater incentives to lower their costs. Patients should expect a shift towards plans that offer these types of savings accounts since they’ve shown to have a reduction of health costs on average per procedure in states with higher prevalence of HSAs.
ContributorsSabol, Joshua Lawrence (Author) / Reiser, Mark (Thesis director) / Ketcham, Jonathan (Committee member) / Dassanayake, Maduranga (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This paper explores the history of sovereign debt default in developing economies and attempts to highlight the mistakes and accomplishments toward achieving debt sustainability. In the past century, developing economies have received considerable investment due to higher returns and a degree of disregard for the risks accompanying these investments. As the former Citibank chairman, Walter Wriston articulated, "Countries don't go bust" (This Time is Different, 51). Still, unexpected negative externalities have shattered this idea as the majority of developing economies follow a cyclical pattern of default. As coined by Reinhart and Rogoff, sovereign governments that fall into this continuous cycle have become known as serial defaulters. Most developed markets have not defaulted since World War II, thus escaping this persistent trap. Still, there have been developing economies that have been able to transition out of serial defaulting. These economies are able to leverage debt to compound growth without incurring the protracted consequences of a default. Although the cases are few, we argue that developing markets such as Chile, Mexico, Russia, and Uruguay have been able to escape this vicious cycle. Thus, our research indicates that collaborative debt restructurings coupled with long term economic policies are imperative to transitioning out of debt intolerance and into a sustainable debt position. Successful economies are able to leverage debt to create strong foundational growth rather than gambling with debt in the hopes of achieving rapid catch- up growth.
ContributorsPitt, Ryan (Co-author) / Martinez, Nick (Co-author) / Choueiri, Robert (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Silverman, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
In this paper, I attempt to measure the impact of education levels on a country’s productivity, measured by its Gross Domestic Product. I find that educational attainment is significantly correlated with economic growth. Previous research on this topic has shown similar results and concluded the importance of education on improving the GDP levels in a country.
ContributorsDanishyar, Roma (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Hill, John (Committee member) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of English (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This paper aims to get a snapshot of charter school and public school performance in the state of California, specifically looking at high schools. Based off of data gathered on specific variables of interest and carefully constructed regression models, we are testing whether charter schools perform differently from public schools. This paper attempts to analyze results from standard OLS regression models and random effects GLS models, both with and without
interaction effects between charter schools and ethnicity and geographic area. While discussing results, this paper will also acknowledge limitations while drawing the line between correlation and causality. Our variable of interest throughout the paper is charter school, controlling for other factors that might impact API scores such as geographic area, demographics, and school
characteristics.
interaction effects between charter schools and ethnicity and geographic area. While discussing results, this paper will also acknowledge limitations while drawing the line between correlation and causality. Our variable of interest throughout the paper is charter school, controlling for other factors that might impact API scores such as geographic area, demographics, and school
characteristics.
ContributorsValdez, Logan Taylor (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Murphy, Alvin (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This paper analyzes responses to a survey using a modified fourfold pattern of preference to determine if implicit information, once made explicit, is practically significant in nudging irrational decision makers towards more rational decisions. Respondents chose between two scenarios and an option for indifference for each of the four questions from the fourfold pattern with expected value being implicit information. Then respondents were asked familiarity with expected value and given the same four questions again but with the expected value for each scenario then explicitly given. Respondents were asked to give feedback if their answers had changed and if the addition of the explicit information was the reason for that change. Results found the addition of the explicit information in the form of expected value to be practically significant with ~90% of respondents who changed their answers giving that for the reason. In the implicit section of the survey, three out of four of the questions had a response majority of lower expected value answers given compared to the alternative. In the explicit section of the survey, all four questions achieved a response majority of higher expected value answers given compared to the alternative. In moving from the implicit to the explicit section, for each question, the scenario with lower expected value experienced a decrease in percentage of responses, and the scenario with higher expected value and indifference between the scenarios both experienced an increase in percentage of responses.
ContributorsJohnson, Matthew (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Foster, William (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
A global trend towards cashlessness following the increase in technological advances in financial transactions lends way to a discussion of its various impacts on society. As part of this discussion, it is important to consider how this trend influences crime rates. The purpose of this project is to specifically investigate the relationship between a cashless society and the robbery rate. Using data collected from the World Bank’s Global Financial Inclusions Index and the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, we implemented a multilinear regression to observe this relationship across countries (n = 29). We aimed to do this by regressing the robbery rate on cashlessness and controlling for other related variables, such as gross domestic product and corruption. We found that as a country becomes more cashless, the robbery rate decreases (β = -677.8379, p = 0.071), thus providing an incentive for countries to join this global trend. We also conducted tests for heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. Overall, our results indicate that a reduction in the amount of cash circulating within a country negatively impacts robbery rates.
ContributorsChoksi, Aashini S (Co-author) / Elliott, Keeley (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This study examines the economic impact of the opioid crisis in the United States. Primarily testing the years 2007-2018, I gathered data from the Census Bureau, Centers for Disease Control, and Kaiser Family Foundation in order to examine the relative impact of a one dollar increase in GDP per Capita on the death rates caused by opioids. By implementing a fixed-effects panel data design, I regressed deaths on GDP per Capita while holding the following constant: population, U.S. retail opioid prescriptions per 100 people, annual average unemployment rate, percent of the population that is Caucasian, and percent of the population that is male. I found that GDP per Capita and opioid related deaths are negatively correlated, meaning that with every additional person dying from opioids, GDP per capita decreases. The finding of this research is important because opioid overdose is harmful to society, as U.S. life expectancy is consistently dropping as opioid death rates rise. Increasing awareness on this topic can help prevent misuse and the overall reduction in opioid related deaths.
ContributorsRavi, Ritika Lisa (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Hill, John (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
The goal of this thesis is to conduct a descriptive analysis of the gross domestic product (GDP) sector composition of countries around the world and their respective levels of economic development with consideration of their geographic locations, economic growth over time, and their economic sizes. This analysis will be centered around exploring the differences of the GDP composition of countries at different levels of development, testing the consensus that developed countries tend to be focused on the services sector in comparison to less developed ones, who trend towards focus on the agricultural one. These findings will be primarily attained through use of data interpretation and regression analysis utilizing the statistical software packages of Stata and Excel. Results and analysis are to be supported by powerful data visualizations created in Tableau and the careful examination of said visualizations.
Due to the sheer amount of macro-economic factors and the case specific incidences involved in the determination of a country’s level of economic development, this thesis will focus entirely on the descriptive analysis of the relationship between a country’s GDP sector composition within the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors and their level of economic development measured in GDP per capita. This study will explore the relationship between GDP per capita and geographic regions, growth over time, and economic size as well. These relationships will be used to determine if said factors need to be controlled for when analyzing the relationship between a country’s sector composition and its level of development. A better understanding of what countries look like at all levels of development helps build a complete picture of a what makes a country successful and could be used in future studies that seek to predict economic success based on more and/or separate variables.
Due to the sheer amount of macro-economic factors and the case specific incidences involved in the determination of a country’s level of economic development, this thesis will focus entirely on the descriptive analysis of the relationship between a country’s GDP sector composition within the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors and their level of economic development measured in GDP per capita. This study will explore the relationship between GDP per capita and geographic regions, growth over time, and economic size as well. These relationships will be used to determine if said factors need to be controlled for when analyzing the relationship between a country’s sector composition and its level of development. A better understanding of what countries look like at all levels of development helps build a complete picture of a what makes a country successful and could be used in future studies that seek to predict economic success based on more and/or separate variables.
ContributorsStojsin, Rastko (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Lopez, Andres Diaz (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Only an Executive Summary of the project is included.
The goal of this project is to develop a deeper understanding of how machine learning pertains to the business world and how business professionals can capitalize on its capabilities. It explores the end-to-end process of integrating a machine and the tradeoffs and obstacles to consider. This topic is extremely pertinent today as the advent of big data increases and the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence is expanding across industries and functional roles. The approach I took was to expand on a project I championed as a Microsoft intern where I facilitated the integration of a forecasting machine learning model firsthand into the business. I supplement my findings from the experience with research on machine learning as a disruptive technology. This paper will not delve into the technical aspects of coding a machine model, but rather provide a holistic overview of developing the model from a business perspective. My findings show that, while the advantages of machine learning are large and widespread, a lack of visibility and transparency into the algorithms behind machine learning, the necessity for large amounts of data, and the overall complexity of creating accurate models are all tradeoffs to consider when deciding whether or not machine learning is suitable for a certain objective. The results of this paper are important in order to increase the understanding of any business professional on the capabilities and obstacles of integrating machine learning into their business operations.
The goal of this project is to develop a deeper understanding of how machine learning pertains to the business world and how business professionals can capitalize on its capabilities. It explores the end-to-end process of integrating a machine and the tradeoffs and obstacles to consider. This topic is extremely pertinent today as the advent of big data increases and the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence is expanding across industries and functional roles. The approach I took was to expand on a project I championed as a Microsoft intern where I facilitated the integration of a forecasting machine learning model firsthand into the business. I supplement my findings from the experience with research on machine learning as a disruptive technology. This paper will not delve into the technical aspects of coding a machine model, but rather provide a holistic overview of developing the model from a business perspective. My findings show that, while the advantages of machine learning are large and widespread, a lack of visibility and transparency into the algorithms behind machine learning, the necessity for large amounts of data, and the overall complexity of creating accurate models are all tradeoffs to consider when deciding whether or not machine learning is suitable for a certain objective. The results of this paper are important in order to increase the understanding of any business professional on the capabilities and obstacles of integrating machine learning into their business operations.
ContributorsVerma, Ria (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Moore, James (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05