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An institutional approach to understanding energy transitions

Description

Energy is a central concern of sustainability because how we produce and consume energy affects society, economy, and the environment. Sustainability scientists are interested in energy transitions away from fossil fuels because they are nonrenewable, increasingly expensive, have adverse health effects, and may be the main driver of climate change.…

Energy is a central concern of sustainability because how we produce and consume energy affects society, economy, and the environment. Sustainability scientists are interested in energy transitions away from fossil fuels because they are nonrenewable, increasingly expensive, have adverse health effects, and may be the main driver of climate change. They see an opportunity for developing countries to avoid the negative consequences fossil-fuel-based energy systems, and also to increase resilience, by leap-frogging-over the centralized energy grid systems that dominate the developed world. Energy transitions pose both challenges and opportunities. Obstacles to transitions include 1) an existing, centralized, complex energy-grid system, whose function is invisible to most users, 2) coordination and collective-action problems that are path dependent, and 3) difficulty in scaling up RE technologies. Because energy transitions rely on technological and social innovations, I am interested in how institutional factors can be leveraged to surmount these obstacles. The overarching question that underlies my research is: What constellation of institutional, biophysical, and social factors are essential for an energy transition? My objective is to derive a set of "design principles," that I term institutional drivers, for energy transitions analogous to Ostrom's institutional design principles. My dissertation research will analyze energy transitions using two approaches: applying the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework and a comparative case study analysis comprised of both primary and secondary sources. This dissertation includes: 1) an analysis of the world's energy portfolio; 2) a case study analysis of five countries; 3) a description of the institutional factors likely to promote a transition to renewable-energy use; and 4) an in-depth case study of Thailand's progress in replacing nonrenewable energy sources with renewable energy sources. My research will contribute to our understanding of how energy transitions at different scales can be accomplished in developing countries and what it takes for innovation to spread in a society.

ContributorsKoster, Auriane Magdalena (Author) / Anderies, John M (Thesis advisor) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Committee member) / Van Der Leeuw, Sander (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

Assessing the effects of institutional and spatial arrangements in analytical and computational models of conservation

Description

This work is an assemblage of three applied projects that address the institutional and spatial constraints to managing threatened and endangered (T & E) terrestrial species. The first project looks at the role of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in protecting wildlife and whether banning non–conservation activities on multi-use federal…

This work is an assemblage of three applied projects that address the institutional and spatial constraints to managing threatened and endangered (T & E) terrestrial species. The first project looks at the role of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in protecting wildlife and whether banning non–conservation activities on multi-use federal lands is socially optimal. A bioeconomic model is used to identify scenarios where ESA–imposed regulations emerge as optimal strategies and to facilitate discussion on feasible long–term strategies in light of the ongoing public land–use debate. Results suggest that banning harmful activities is a preferred strategy when valued species are in decline or exposed to poor habitat quality. However such a strategy cannot be sustained in perpetuity, a switch to land–use practices characteristic of habitat conservation plans is recommended. The spatial portion of this study is motivated by the need for a more systematic quantification and assessment of landscape structure ahead of species reintroduction; this portion is further broken up into two parts. The first explores how connectivity between habitat patches promotes coexistence among multiple interacting species. An agent–based model of a two–patch metapopulation is developed with local predator–prey dynamics and density–dependent dispersal. The simulation experiment suggests that connectivity levels at both extremes, representing very little risk and high risk of species mortality, do not augment the likelihood of coexistence while intermediate levels do. Furthermore, the probability of coexistence increases and spans a wide range of connectivity levels when individual dispersal is less probabilistic and more dependent on population feedback. Second, a novel approach to quantifying network structure is developed using the statistical method of moments. This measurement framework is then used to index habitat networks and assess their capacity to drive three main ecological processes: dispersal, survival, and coexistence. Results indicate that the moments approach outperforms single summary metrics and accounts for a majority of the variation in process outcomes. The hierarchical measurement scheme is helpful for indicating when additional structural information is needed to determine ecological function. However, the qualitative trend between network indicator and function is, at times, unintuitive and unstable in certain areas of the metric space.

ContributorsSalau, Kehinde Rilwan, 1985- (Author) / Janssen, Marco A (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli P (Thesis advisor) / Anderies, John M (Committee member) / Abbott, Joshua K (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

Cities in ecology: settlement patterns and diseases

Description

A sequence of models is developed to describe urban population growth in the context of the embedded physical, social and economic environments and an urban disease are developed. This set of models is focused on urban growth and the relationship between the desire to move and the utility derived from…

A sequence of models is developed to describe urban population growth in the context of the embedded physical, social and economic environments and an urban disease are developed. This set of models is focused on urban growth and the relationship between the desire to move and the utility derived from city life. This utility is measured in terms of the economic opportunities in the city, the level of human constructed amenity, and the level of amenity caused by the natural environment. The set of urban disease models is focused on examining prospects of eliminating a disease for which a vaccine does not exist. It is inspired by an outbreak of the vector-borne disease dengue fever in Peru, during 2000-2001.

ContributorsMurillo, D (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Anderies, John M (Thesis advisor) / Boone, Christopher (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2012

Water and nitrogen in designed ecosystems: biogeochemical and economic consequences

Description

More than half of all accessible freshwater has been appropriated for human use, and a substantial portion of terrestrial ecosystems have been transformed by human action. These impacts are heaviest in urban ecosystems, where impervious surfaces increase runoff, water delivery and stormflows are managed heavily, and there are substantial anthropogenic…

More than half of all accessible freshwater has been appropriated for human use, and a substantial portion of terrestrial ecosystems have been transformed by human action. These impacts are heaviest in urban ecosystems, where impervious surfaces increase runoff, water delivery and stormflows are managed heavily, and there are substantial anthropogenic sources of nitrogen (N). Urbanization also frequently results in creation of intentional novel ecosystems. These "designed" ecosystems are fashioned to fulfill particular needs of the residents, or ecosystem services. In the Phoenix, Arizona area, the augmentation and redistribution of water has resulted in numerous component ecosystems that are atypical for a desert environment. Because these systems combine N loading with the presence of water, they may be hot spots of biogeochemical activity. The research presented here illustrates the types of hydrological modifications typical of desert cities and documents the extent and distribution of common designed aquatic ecosystems in the Phoenix metropolitan area: artificial lakes and stormwater retention basins. While both ecosystems were designed for other purposes (recreation/aesthetics and flood abatement, respectively), they have the potential to provide the added ecosystem service of N removal via denitrification. However, denitrification in urban lakes is likely to be limited by the rate of diffusion of nitrate into the sediment. Retention basins export some nitrate to groundwater, but grassy basins have higher denitrification rates than xeriscaped ones, due to higher soil moisture and organic matter content. An economic valuation of environmental amenities demonstrates the importance of abundant vegetation, proximity to water, and lower summer temperatures throughout the region. These amenities all may be provided by designed, water-intensive ecosystems. Some ecosystems are specifically designed for multiple uses, but maximizing one ecosystem service often entails trade-offs with other services. Further investigation into the distribution, bundling, and tradeoffs among water-related ecosystem services shows that some types of services are constrained by the hydrogeomorphology of the area, while for others human engineering and the creation of designed ecosystems has enabled the delivery of hydrologic ecosystem services independent of natural constraints.

ContributorsLarson, Elisabeth Knight (Author) / Grimm, Nancy (Thesis advisor) / Hartnett, Hilairy E (Committee member) / Fisher, Stuart G. (Committee member) / Anderies, John M (Committee member) / Lohse, Kathleen A (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2010

The Phoenix Imperative: An Alternative Maturity Model for Systems Engineering Service Providers

Description

Providers of systems engineering services and their employees are not always able to be the masters of their own destiny. When working in staff augmentation roles under the auspices of another company, they are typically forced to operate within the corporate culture from which they derive their livelihood, following “foreign”…

Providers of systems engineering services and their employees are not always able to be the masters of their own destiny. When working in staff augmentation roles under the auspices of another company, they are typically forced to operate within the corporate culture from which they derive their livelihood, following “foreign” processes and procedures, responding to orders and directives. This situation calls for an alternative maturity model for those that provide systems engineering services. While a client organization might be maturing according to any of several proposed models (SEI 1993, SEI 1995, EPIC 1995, ISO 1990, IEEE 1994), the services contractor cannot necessarily be said to be achieving a similar status.

This should not, however, preclude significant maturation goals on the part of the service provider. The Phoenix Imperative is both a business model and maturity model that has worked effectively in several corporations providing system engineering services. It was developed in the context described above and honed over a period of several years with several customers. It provides not only an alternative to the other organizational maturity models that have been proposed, but also delivers the potential for adoption as a personal maturity model for individuals interested in increasing their effectiveness within the context of employment with a service provider.

ContributorsRoberts, Thomas Wade (Author) / Arizona State University. School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment (Contributor) / Arizona State University. Center for Earth Systems Engineering and Management (Contributor)

Created2010

Summary of Allenby’s ESEM Principles

Description

In his writings over the past decade, Brad Allenby has proposed (at least) 16 principles of sustainable engineering (see references) that are collectively known as the Earth Systems Engineering and Management (ESEM) principles. These principles have merit and applicability in many disciplines and domains of discourse, but are sometimes awkward…

In his writings over the past decade, Brad Allenby has proposed (at least) 16 principles of sustainable engineering (see references) that are collectively known as the Earth Systems Engineering and Management (ESEM) principles. These principles have merit and applicability in many disciplines and domains of discourse, but are sometimes awkward to use due to the quantity of words required to accurately express their meaning. In light of this, it has become necessary to formulate a simplified list of “abbreviated tags” for ease of reference in conversation and concise writing. This list of tags also makes the principles immediately accessible to those who may want to pursue the more thorough definitions offered by Allenby. The following tags have been proposed for use when a concise phrasing is required. The citation provided after the tag is, in my opinion, the most complete expression of Allenby’s thought on this principle. It can be used when citing the principle in written assignments or publications.

ContributorsRoberts, Thomas Wade (Author) / Arizona State University. School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment (Contributor) / Arizona State University. Center for Earth Systems Engineering and Management (Contributor)

Created2011-05-20

Chytridiomycosis in the direct-developing frogs of Puerto Rico

Description

Epidemiological theory normally does not predict host extinction from infectious disease because of a host density threshold below which pathogens cannot persist. However, host extinction can occur when a biotic or abiotic pathogen reservoir allows for density-independent transmission. Amphibians are facing global population decline and extinction from the emerging infectious…

Epidemiological theory normally does not predict host extinction from infectious disease because of a host density threshold below which pathogens cannot persist. However, host extinction can occur when a biotic or abiotic pathogen reservoir allows for density-independent transmission. Amphibians are facing global population decline and extinction from the emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dentrobatidis (Bd). I use the model species Eleutherodactylus coqui to assess the impact of Bd on terrestrial direct-developing frog species, a common life history in the tropics. I tested the importance of two key factors that might influence this impact and then used laboratory experiments and published field data to model population-level impacts of Bd on E. coqui. First, I assessed the ontogenetic susceptibility of E. coqui by exposing juvenile and adult frogs to the same pathogen strain and dose. Juveniles exposed to Bd had significantly lower survival rates compared with control juveniles, while adult frogs often cleared infection. Second, I conducted experiments to determine whether E. coqui can become infected with Bd indirectly from contact with zoospores shed onto vegetation by an infected frog and from direct exposure to an infected frog. Both types of transmission were observed, making this the first demonstration that amphibians can become infected indirectly in non-aquatic habitats. Third, I tested the hypothesis that artificially-maintained cultures of Bd attenuate in pathogenicity, an effect known for other fungal pathogens. Comparing two cultures of the same Bd strain with different passage histories revealed reduced zoospore production and disease-induced mortality rates for a susceptible frog species (Atelopus zeteki) but not for the less-susceptible E. coqui. Finally, I used a mathematical model to project the population-level impacts of chytridiomycosis on E. coqui. Model analysis showed that indirect transmission, combined with either a high rate of zoospore production or low rate of zoospore mortality, is required for Bd to drive E. coqui populations below an extinction threshold. High rates of transmission plus frequent re-infection could lead to poor recruitment of infected juveniles and population decline. My research adds further insight into how emerging infectious disease is contributing to the loss of amphibian biodiversity.

ContributorsLanghammer, Penny F. (Author) / Collins, James P. (Thesis advisor) / Brooks, Thomas M (Committee member) / Burrowes, Patricia A. (Committee member) / Anderies, John M (Committee member) / Escalante, Ananias A (Committee member) / Smith, Andrew T. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2013

Interrogating Models in Population Dynamics Through a Behavioral Kinetic Lens

Description

There is a need in the ecology literature to have a discussion about the fundamental theories from which population dynamics arises. Ad hoc model development is not uncommon in the field often as a result of a need to publish rapidly and frequently. Ecologists and statisticians like Robert J. Steidl…

There is a need in the ecology literature to have a discussion about the fundamental theories from which population dynamics arises. Ad hoc model development is not uncommon in the field often as a result of a need to publish rapidly and frequently. Ecologists and statisticians like Robert J. Steidl and Kenneth P Burnham have called for a more deliberative approach they call "hard thinking". For example, the phenomena of population growth can be captured by almost any sigmoid function. The question of which sigmoid function best explains a data set cannot be answered meaningfully by statistical regression since that can only speak to the validity of the shape. There is a need to revisit enzyme kinetics and ecological stoichiometry to properly justify basal model selection in ecology. This dissertation derives several common population growth models from a generalized equation. The mechanistic validity of these models in different contexts is explored through a kinetic lens. The behavioral kinetic framework is then put to the test by examining a set of biologically plausible growth models against the 1968-1995 elk population count data for northern Yellowstone. Using only this count data, the novel Monod-Holling growth model was able to accurately predict minimum viable population and life expectancy despite both being exogenous to the model and data set. Lastly, the elk/wolf data from Yellowstone was used to compare the validity of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur and Arditi-Ginzburg models. They both were derived from a more general model which included both predator and prey mediated steps. The Arditi-Ginzburg model was able to fit the training data better, but only the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model matched the validation data. Accounting for animal sexual behavior allowed for the creation of the Monod-Holling model which is just as simple as the logistic differential equation but provides greater insights for conservation purposes. Explicitly acknowledging the ethology of wolf predation helps explain the differences in predictive performances by the best fit Rosenzweig-MacArthur and Arditi-Ginzburg models. The behavioral kinetic framework has proven to be a useful tool, and it has the ability to provide even further insights going forward.

ContributorsPringle, Jack Andrew McCracken (Author) / Anderies, John M (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Milner, Fabio (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2022

Managing Natural Capital for Nature-Based Recreation in the Anthropocene

Description

Nature-based recreation is a popular way for people to interact with the environment that also confers numerous economic and health benefits. It is important that the social-ecological systems (SES) that host nature-based recreation be managed effectively, both to preserve the benefits of this important human-environment interaction, and to avoid the…

Nature-based recreation is a popular way for people to interact with the environment that also confers numerous economic and health benefits. It is important that the social-ecological systems (SES) that host nature-based recreation be managed effectively, both to preserve the benefits of this important human-environment interaction, and to avoid the potential negative outcomes of recreational commons. The SES that host nature-based recreation are characterized by complex and dynamic feedbacks that complicate their management. Managing these systems is made more complex by the suite of external, multi-scalar, and anthropogenic forces (e.g., climate change, trans-boundary pollution) that plague them with increasing frequency. This dissertation investigates the importance of accounting for this full range of system feedbacks when managing for nature-based recreation. I begin with a broad discussion of the types of dilemmas faced by managers of nature-based recreation. I create a systems-thinking typology of management dilemmas that apply across different recreation modes and system contexts, and which are characterized as feedbacks within the broader recreational system. My findings in this chapter have important implications for understanding and anticipating how different exogenous and endogenous shocks (including management interventions, themselves) may work through or change the processes in SES that host nature-based recreation. In the following two chapters, I narrow my focus to examine case studies of specific dilemma archetypes and proposed management interventions. First, I perform an ex ante analysis of a prospective policy response to a regulatory spiral of excess recreational fishing effort and abridged fishing seasons in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. I estimate behavioral models of fishers’ responses to a prospective incentive-based intervention, and find evidence that such a policy could improve multiple fishery outcomes. Second, I perform an ex post program evaluation of an invasive species bounty program. My results suggest that the program underperformed because it failed to overcome countervailing incentives. Together, my case study analyses reveal the value of modeling for designing policy for these complex SES and show the importance of accounting for the full set of system feedbacks (including the incentives that drive recreator behaviors and the impacts of those behaviors) when managing nature-based recreation.

ContributorsJungers, Brenna (Author) / Abbott, Joshua K (Thesis advisor) / Leonard, Bryan (Committee member) / Anderies, John M (Committee member) / Bair, Lucas S (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2023

From Design Principles to Principles of Design: Resolving Wicked Problems in Coupled Infrastructure Systems Involving Common-Pool Resources

Description

Design is a fundamental human activity through which we attempt to navigate and manipulate the world around us for our survival, pleasure, and benefit. As human society has evolved, so too has the complexity and impact of our design activities on the environment. Now clearly intertwined as a complex social-ecological…

Design is a fundamental human activity through which we attempt to navigate and manipulate the world around us for our survival, pleasure, and benefit. As human society has evolved, so too has the complexity and impact of our design activities on the environment. Now clearly intertwined as a complex social-ecological system at the global scale, we struggle in our ability to understand, design, implement, and manage solutions to complex global issues such as climate change, water scarcity, food security, and natural disasters. Some have asserted that this is because complex adaptive systems, like these, are moving targets that are only partially designed and partially emergent and self-organizing. Furthermore, these types of systems are difficult to understand and control due to the inherent dynamics of "wicked problems", such as: uncertainty, social dilemmas, inequities, and trade-offs involving multiple feedback loops that sometimes cause both the problems and their potential solutions to shift and evolve together. These problems do not, however, negate our collective need to effectively design, produce, and implement strategies that allow us to appropriate, distribute, manage and sustain the resources on which we depend. Design, however, is not well understood in the context of complex adaptive systems involving common-pool resources. In addition, the relationship between our attempts at control and performance at the system-level over time is not well understood either. This research contributes to our understanding of design in common-pool resource systems by using a multi-methods approach to investigate longitudinal data on an innovative participatory design intervention implemented in nineteen small-scale, farmer-managed irrigation systems in the Indrawati River Basin of Nepal over the last three decades. The intervention was intended as an experiment in using participatory planning, design and construction processes to increase food security and strengthen the self-sufficiency and self-governing capacity of resource user groups within the poorest district in Nepal. This work is the first time that theories of participatory design-processes have been empirically tested against longitudinal data on a number of small-scale, locally managed common-pool resource systems. It clarifies and helps to develop a theory of design in this setting for both scientific and practical purposes.

ContributorsRatajczyk, Elicia Beth (Author) / Anderies, John M (Thesis advisor) / York, Abigail (Committee member) / Shivakoti, Ganesh P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2018