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Ethnicity and Conflict Recurrence: An Analysis on the Deterioration of Peace

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Civil conflicts with ethnic motivating factors are more likely to experience recurrence than nonethnic conflicts. In this paper I conduct a survival analysis on a group of 175 conflict episodes from 1946-2005. I argue that grievances based on religion, race, culture, language, and/or history are difficult to resolve due to…

Civil conflicts with ethnic motivating factors are more likely to experience recurrence than nonethnic conflicts. In this paper I conduct a survival analysis on a group of 175 conflict episodes from 1946-2005. I argue that grievances based on religion, race, culture, language, and/or history are difficult to resolve due to the concept of indivisibility that makes compromise on ethnic issues unpopular. Along with Clausewitz’s theory on the influence of passion, chance, and reason in war, I also argue the importance of following clear objectives. When goals change over time, strategy becomes confounded and conflict recurrence increases. Utilizing the Cox Proportional Hazards model, the hazard rate is found to be significantly higher for ethnic conflicts than nonethnic conflicts. They also face shorter periods of peace. To highlight how ethnic mechanisms effect similar conflict scenarios, a case study of the first Indo-Pakistani and Chinese Civil War is made. I find that in the absence of ethnic grievances through China’s cultural assimilation campaigns, they were able to effectively curb violent disputes while India could not.
ContributorsNguyen-Morris, Kelly (Author) / Thomson, Henry (Thesis advisor) / Wright, Thorin (Committee member) / Siroky, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
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Cha Ching! How Do Legislative Salaries Affect Polarization in State Legislatures?

Description
Polarization has been a cause of political gridlock and other negative attributes within the state legislature for many years. Many legislatures complain that salaries are too low to allow an elected official position to be their full-time job. Therefore, I explore the theory that some candidates emerge to change the…

Polarization has been a cause of political gridlock and other negative attributes within the state legislature for many years. Many legislatures complain that salaries are too low to allow an elected official position to be their full-time job. Therefore, I explore the theory that some candidates emerge to change the status quo, not for material incentives. Using an original state-level data set from 2007 and 2017 and OLS techniques, I hypothesize that legislative salaries negatively correlate with polarization in roll-call voting on average, ceteris paribus.
ContributorsBall, Aliesha (Author) / Strickland, James (Thesis advisor) / Perez, Luke (Thesis advisor) / Peterson, Timothy (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2024