Matching Items (2)
Description

This research explores the use of transformative urban scenarios and timelines as a planning tool for addressing future sustainability challenges in urban environments. The analysis comes from a set of scenarios that were explored through workshops conducted in 2019 in which Phoenix stakeholders developed timelines toward their visions of Phoenix

This research explores the use of transformative urban scenarios and timelines as a planning tool for addressing future sustainability challenges in urban environments. The analysis comes from a set of scenarios that were explored through workshops conducted in 2019 in which Phoenix stakeholders developed timelines toward their visions of Phoenix 60 years into the future. To evaluate the pathways created in these timelines, we employed process tracing methodology to understand which causal mechanisms lead to certain phenomena. Or in other words, it helps us understand how changes happen. We converted the timelines into process tracing diagrams that categorized the relationship between actions, actors, and observable manifestations (OM’s) of change over time. To understand the relationship between these components, we then used a combination of inductive and deductive coding to categorize types of activities, actors, OM’s and sustainability topics and organized them into themes. This helped us to understand how city decision-makers and community leaders think sustainability and resilience transformation can and should occur. This thesis takes a closer look at one particular scenario, Some Like it Hot, which explores resilience to extreme heat. Through coding and analysis, we found trends, correlations, and missing pieces in the participants’ timeline. There are numerous overarching causal mechanisms throughout the scenario timeline. These trends offer insight into which activities and stakeholders are seen as significant drivers of sustainable transformation according to the workshop participants. The file attached is a pdf version of an ArcGIS Story Map completed for this honors thesis. To view the full, interactive thesis deliverable, visit https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/14d1e52a9448498e87f20e7566651a13

ContributorsHarris, Madison (Author) / Caughman, Liliana (Thesis director) / Grimm, Nancy (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2023-05
152491-Thumbnail Image.png
Description
Transformational sustainability science demands that stakeholders and researchers consider the needs and values of future generations in pursuit of solutions to sustainability problems. This dissertation research focuses on the real-world problem of unsustainable water governance in the Phoenix region of Central Arizona. A sustainability transition is the local water system

Transformational sustainability science demands that stakeholders and researchers consider the needs and values of future generations in pursuit of solutions to sustainability problems. This dissertation research focuses on the real-world problem of unsustainable water governance in the Phoenix region of Central Arizona. A sustainability transition is the local water system is necessary to overcome sustainability challenges and scenarios can be used to explore plausible and desirable futures to inform a transition, but this requires some methodological refinements. This dissertation refines scenario methodology to generate water governance scenarios for metropolitan Phoenix that: (i) feature enhanced stakeholder participation; (ii) incorporate normative values and preferences; (iii) focus on governance actors and their activities; and (iv) meet an expanded set of quality criteria. The first study in the dissertation analyzes and evaluates participatory climate change scenarios to provide recommendations for the construction and use of scenarios that advance climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. The second study proposes and tests a set of plausibility indications to substantiate or evaluate claims that scenarios and future projections could become reality, helping to establish the legitimacy of radically different or transformative scenarios among an extended peer community. The case study of water governance begins with the third study, which includes a current state analysis and sustainability appraisal of the Phoenix-area water system. This is followed by a fourth study which surveys Phoenix-area water decision-makers to better understand water-related preferences for use in scenario construction. The fifth and final study applies a multi-method approach to construct future scenarios of water governance in metropolitan Phoenix in 2030 using stakeholder preferences, among other normative frames, and testing systemic impacts with WaterSim 5.0, a dynamic simulation model of water in the region. The scenarios are boundary objects around which stakeholders can weigh tradeoffs, set priorities and reflect on impacts of water-related activities, broadening policy dialogues around water governance in central Arizona. Together the five studies advance transformational sustainability research by refining methods to engage stakeholders in crafting futures that define how individuals and institutions should operate in transformed and sustainable systems.
ContributorsKeeler, Lauren Withycombe (Author) / Wiek, Arnim (Thesis advisor) / White, Dave D (Committee member) / Lang, Daniel J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014