Matching Items (4)
Description
Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray induced tropospheric ionization modifies cloud microphysics, and modulates the global electric circuit. This dissertation is constructed around three research questions: (1): What are the biweekly declination effects of lunar gravitation upon the troposphere? (2): How do United States severe weather reports correlate with heliospheric current sheet crossings? and (3): How does cloud cover spatially and temporally vary with galactic cosmic rays? Study 1 findings show spatial consistency concerning lunar declination extremes upon Rossby longwaves. Due to the influence of Rossby longwaves on synoptic scale circulation, our results could theoretically extend numerical meteorological forecasting. Study 2 results indicate a preference for violent tornadoes to occur prior to a HCS crossing. Violent tornadoes (EF3+) are 10% more probable to occur near, and 4% less probable immediately after a HCS crossing. The distribution of hail and damaging wind reports do not mirror this pattern. Polarity is critical for the effect. Study 3 results confirm anticorrelation between solar flux and low-level marine-layer cloud cover, but indicate substantial regional variability between cloud cover altitude and GCRs. Ultimately, this dissertation serves to extend short term meteorological forecasting, enhance climatological modeling and through analysis of severe violent weather and heliospheric events, protect property and save lives.
ContributorsKrahenbuhl, Dan (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Dorn, Ron (Committee member) / Shaffer, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Dust storms have far-reaching human and economic impacts; spreading disease, raspatory and cardiovascular disruption, destruction of property and crops, and death. Understanding of this phenomenon is can help with operational and academic endeavors and alleviate some of these impacts. To accomplish this goal, this dissertation poses a central question: Do dust storms have discreet geographic and temporal characteristics that can aid academic and operational analysis of these storms? To answer this question three case studies were undertaken. The first study constructed an archive of 549 dust rain events across Europe to determine a seasonal pattern. It was discovered that the largest number of events occurred in the Spring season (MAM). Then three individual events across Europe were examined to highlight the synoptic events that control these dust rains. Each event can be closely tied to the movement of the migratory Rossby waves and linked to Saharan dust from North Africa. The second study was a construction of Central Sonoran Desert dust storms from 2009 to 2022 tied to the NAM. HYSPLIT back-trajectories linked the strongest events to source regions mainly from the Southwest along the Gila River from the Gulf of California. As the storms weaken in intensity they drift to the South and Southeast traveling along the Santa Cruz River and its tributaries. The third study was a case study of three large events in the Central Sonoran Desert along the Gila River. This study examines the effects of the local topography, specifically the stand-alone mountain complexes that can block or funnel dust as it moves through the Gila River Valley. In each instance the South Mountain Complex and the Sierra Estrella served as a dust shield containing the highest dust concentrations to the south side of the Gila River Valley. This dissertation has analyzed several of the different elements of dust storms. These elements include the synoptic patterns that drive dust storms, the source regions of dust storms, and the ground level topography that can control their movement. Fundamentally, these findings can enhance our academic understanding of dust storms as well as our operational ability to forecast.
ContributorsWhite, Joshua Randolph (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Balling Jr., Robert C. (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2024
Description
The role of climate change, as measured in terms of changes in the climatology of geophysical variables (such as temperature and rainfall), on the global distribution and burden of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) remains a subject of considerable debate. This dissertation attempts to contribute to this debate via the use of mathematical (compartmental) modeling and statistical data analysis. In particular, the objective is to find suitable values and/or ranges of the climate variables considered (typically temperature and rainfall) for maximum vector abundance and consequently, maximum transmission intensity of the disease(s) they cause.
Motivated by the fact that understanding the dynamics of disease vector is crucial to understanding the transmission and control of the VBDs they cause, a novel weather-driven deterministic model for the population biology of the mosquito is formulated and rigorously analyzed. Numerical simulations, using relevant weather and entomological data for Anopheles mosquito (the vector for malaria), show that maximum mosquito abundance occurs when temperature and rainfall values lie in the range [20-25]C and [105-115] mm, respectively.
The Anopheles mosquito ecology model is extended to incorporate human dynamics. The resulting weather-driven malaria transmission model, which includes many of the key aspects of malaria (such as disease transmission by asymptomatically-infectious humans, and enhanced malaria immunity due to repeated exposure), was rigorously analyzed. The model which also incorporates the effect of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on malaria transmission dynamics shows that increasing DTR shifts the peak temperature value for malaria transmission from 29C (when DTR is 0C) to about 25C (when DTR is 15C).
Finally, the malaria model is adapted and used to study the transmission dynamics of chikungunya, dengue and Zika, three diseases co-circulating in the Americas caused by the same vector (Aedes aegypti). The resulting model, which is fitted using data from Mexico, is used to assess a few hypotheses (such as those associated with the possible impact the newly-released dengue vaccine will have on Zika) and the impact of variability in climate variables on the dynamics of the three diseases. Suitable temperature and rainfall ranges for the maximum transmission intensity of the three diseases are obtained.
Motivated by the fact that understanding the dynamics of disease vector is crucial to understanding the transmission and control of the VBDs they cause, a novel weather-driven deterministic model for the population biology of the mosquito is formulated and rigorously analyzed. Numerical simulations, using relevant weather and entomological data for Anopheles mosquito (the vector for malaria), show that maximum mosquito abundance occurs when temperature and rainfall values lie in the range [20-25]C and [105-115] mm, respectively.
The Anopheles mosquito ecology model is extended to incorporate human dynamics. The resulting weather-driven malaria transmission model, which includes many of the key aspects of malaria (such as disease transmission by asymptomatically-infectious humans, and enhanced malaria immunity due to repeated exposure), was rigorously analyzed. The model which also incorporates the effect of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on malaria transmission dynamics shows that increasing DTR shifts the peak temperature value for malaria transmission from 29C (when DTR is 0C) to about 25C (when DTR is 15C).
Finally, the malaria model is adapted and used to study the transmission dynamics of chikungunya, dengue and Zika, three diseases co-circulating in the Americas caused by the same vector (Aedes aegypti). The resulting model, which is fitted using data from Mexico, is used to assess a few hypotheses (such as those associated with the possible impact the newly-released dengue vaccine will have on Zika) and the impact of variability in climate variables on the dynamics of the three diseases. Suitable temperature and rainfall ranges for the maximum transmission intensity of the three diseases are obtained.
ContributorsOkuneye, Kamaldeen O (Author) / Gumel, Abba B (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) redistribution in extreme dust storms and processing in clouds
Description
Dust storms known as 'haboobs' occur in the City of Tempe, AZ during the North American monsoon season. A haboob classification method based on meteorological and air quality measurements is described. There were from 3 to 20 haboob events per year over the period from 2005 to 2014. The calculated annual TSP (total suspended particulate) dry deposition during haboobs is estimated to contribute 74% of the total particulate mass deposited in Tempe, AZ.
Dry deposition is compared with the aqueous chemistry of Tempe Town Lake. Water management and other factors may have a stronger impact on Tempe Town Lake chemistry than haboob dry-deposition. Haboobs alter the Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations and distributions in Tempe, AZ. PAH isomer ratios suggest PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than or equal to 2.5 μm) sources consistent with approximate thunderstorm outflow paths.
The importance of the atmospheric aqueous phase, fogs and clouds, for the processing and removal of PAHs is not well known. A multiphase model was developed to determine the fate and lifetime of PAHs in fogs and clouds. The model employed literature values that describe the partitioning between three phases (aqueous, liquid organic, and gas), in situ PAH measurements, and experimental and estimated (photo)oxidation rates. At 25 °C, PAHs with two, three and four rings were predicted to be primarily gas phase (fraction in the gas phase xg > 90 %) while five- and six-ring PAHs partitioned significantly into droplets (xg < 60 %) with aqueous phase fractions of 1 to 6 % and liquid organic phase fractions of 31 to 91 %. The predicted atmospheric lifetimes of PAHs in the presence of fog or cloud droplets (< 5 hours) were significantly shorter than literature predictions of PAH wet and dry deposition lifetimes (1 to 14 days and 5 to 15 months respectively) and shorter than or equal to predicted PAH gas phase / particle phase atmospheric lifetimes (1 to 300 hours). The aqueous phase cannot be neglected as a PAH sink due to the large aqueous volume (vs. organic volume) and the relatively fast aqueous reactions.
Dry deposition is compared with the aqueous chemistry of Tempe Town Lake. Water management and other factors may have a stronger impact on Tempe Town Lake chemistry than haboob dry-deposition. Haboobs alter the Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations and distributions in Tempe, AZ. PAH isomer ratios suggest PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than or equal to 2.5 μm) sources consistent with approximate thunderstorm outflow paths.
The importance of the atmospheric aqueous phase, fogs and clouds, for the processing and removal of PAHs is not well known. A multiphase model was developed to determine the fate and lifetime of PAHs in fogs and clouds. The model employed literature values that describe the partitioning between three phases (aqueous, liquid organic, and gas), in situ PAH measurements, and experimental and estimated (photo)oxidation rates. At 25 °C, PAHs with two, three and four rings were predicted to be primarily gas phase (fraction in the gas phase xg > 90 %) while five- and six-ring PAHs partitioned significantly into droplets (xg < 60 %) with aqueous phase fractions of 1 to 6 % and liquid organic phase fractions of 31 to 91 %. The predicted atmospheric lifetimes of PAHs in the presence of fog or cloud droplets (< 5 hours) were significantly shorter than literature predictions of PAH wet and dry deposition lifetimes (1 to 14 days and 5 to 15 months respectively) and shorter than or equal to predicted PAH gas phase / particle phase atmospheric lifetimes (1 to 300 hours). The aqueous phase cannot be neglected as a PAH sink due to the large aqueous volume (vs. organic volume) and the relatively fast aqueous reactions.
ContributorsEagar, Jershon (Author) / Herckes, Pierre (Thesis advisor) / Hayes, Mark (Committee member) / Shock, Everett (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016