Matching Items (5)
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- All Subjects: Reliability (Engineering)
- Creators: Pan, Rong
- Creators: Zhang, Muhong
- Creators: Chen, Yuzhong
Description
This dissertation is to address product design optimization including reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) and robust design with epistemic uncertainty. It is divided into four major components as outlined below. Firstly, a comprehensive study of uncertainties is performed, in which sources of uncertainty are listed, categorized and the impacts are discussed. Epistemic uncertainty is of interest, which is due to lack of knowledge and can be reduced by taking more observations. In particular, the strategies to address epistemic uncertainties due to implicit constraint function are discussed. Secondly, a sequential sampling strategy to improve RBDO under implicit constraint function is developed. In modern engineering design, an RBDO task is often performed by a computer simulation program, which can be treated as a black box, as its analytical function is implicit. An efficient sampling strategy on learning the probabilistic constraint function under the design optimization framework is presented. The method is a sequential experimentation around the approximate most probable point (MPP) at each step of optimization process. It is compared with the methods of MPP-based sampling, lifted surrogate function, and non-sequential random sampling. Thirdly, a particle splitting-based reliability analysis approach is developed in design optimization. In reliability analysis, traditional simulation methods such as Monte Carlo simulation may provide accurate results, but are often accompanied with high computational cost. To increase the efficiency, particle splitting is integrated into RBDO. It is an improvement of subset simulation with multiple particles to enhance the diversity and stability of simulation samples. This method is further extended to address problems with multiple probabilistic constraints and compared with the MPP-based methods. Finally, a reliability-based robust design optimization (RBRDO) framework is provided to integrate the consideration of design reliability and design robustness simultaneously. The quality loss objective in robust design, considered together with the production cost in RBDO, are used formulate a multi-objective optimization problem. With the epistemic uncertainty from implicit performance function, the sequential sampling strategy is extended to RBRDO, and a combined metamodel is proposed to tackle both controllable variables and uncontrollable variables. The solution is a Pareto frontier, compared with a single optimal solution in RBDO.
ContributorsZhuang, Xiaotian (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Du, Xiaoping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The research on the topology and dynamics of complex networks is one of the most focused area in complex system science. The goals are to structure our understanding of the real-world social, economical, technological, and biological systems in the aspect of networks consisting a large number of interacting units and to develop corresponding detection, prediction, and control strategies. In this highly interdisciplinary field, my research mainly concentrates on universal estimation schemes, physical controllability, as well as mechanisms behind extreme events and cascading failure for complex networked systems.
Revealing the underlying structure and dynamics of complex networked systems from observed data without of any specific prior information is of fundamental importance to science, engineering, and society. We articulate a Markov network based model, the sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine (SDBM), as a universal network structural estimator and dynamics approximator based on techniques including compressive sensing and K-means algorithm. It recovers the network structure of the original system and predicts its short-term or even long-term dynamical behavior for a large variety of representative dynamical processes on model and real-world complex networks.
One of the most challenging problems in complex dynamical systems is to control complex networks.
Upon finding that the energy required to approach a target state with reasonable precision
is often unbearably large, and the energy of controlling a set of networks with similar structural properties follows a fat-tail distribution, we identify fundamental structural ``short boards'' that play a dominant role in the enormous energy and offer a theoretical interpretation for the fat-tail distribution and simple strategies to significantly reduce the energy.
Extreme events and cascading failure, a type of collective behavior in complex networked systems, often have catastrophic consequences. Utilizing transportation and evolutionary game dynamics as prototypical
settings, we investigate the emergence of extreme events in simplex complex networks, mobile ad-hoc networks and multi-layer interdependent networks. A striking resonance-like phenomenon and the emergence of global-scale cascading breakdown are discovered. We derive analytic theories to understand the mechanism of
control at a quantitative level and articulate cost-effective control schemes to significantly suppress extreme events and the cascading process.
Revealing the underlying structure and dynamics of complex networked systems from observed data without of any specific prior information is of fundamental importance to science, engineering, and society. We articulate a Markov network based model, the sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine (SDBM), as a universal network structural estimator and dynamics approximator based on techniques including compressive sensing and K-means algorithm. It recovers the network structure of the original system and predicts its short-term or even long-term dynamical behavior for a large variety of representative dynamical processes on model and real-world complex networks.
One of the most challenging problems in complex dynamical systems is to control complex networks.
Upon finding that the energy required to approach a target state with reasonable precision
is often unbearably large, and the energy of controlling a set of networks with similar structural properties follows a fat-tail distribution, we identify fundamental structural ``short boards'' that play a dominant role in the enormous energy and offer a theoretical interpretation for the fat-tail distribution and simple strategies to significantly reduce the energy.
Extreme events and cascading failure, a type of collective behavior in complex networked systems, often have catastrophic consequences. Utilizing transportation and evolutionary game dynamics as prototypical
settings, we investigate the emergence of extreme events in simplex complex networks, mobile ad-hoc networks and multi-layer interdependent networks. A striking resonance-like phenomenon and the emergence of global-scale cascading breakdown are discovered. We derive analytic theories to understand the mechanism of
control at a quantitative level and articulate cost-effective control schemes to significantly suppress extreme events and the cascading process.
ContributorsChen, Yuzhong (Author) / Lai, Ying-Cheng (Thesis advisor) / Spanias, Andreas (Committee member) / Tepedelenlioğlu, Cihan (Committee member) / Ying, Lei (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Bayesian networks are powerful tools in system reliability assessment due to their flexibility in modeling the reliability structure of complex systems. This dissertation develops Bayesian network models for system reliability analysis through the use of Bayesian inference techniques.
Bayesian networks generalize fault trees by allowing components and subsystems to be related by conditional probabilities instead of deterministic relationships; thus, they provide analytical advantages to the situation when the failure structure is not well understood, especially during the product design stage. In order to tackle this problem, one needs to utilize auxiliary information such as the reliability information from similar products and domain expertise. For this purpose, a Bayesian network approach is proposed to incorporate data from functional analysis and parent products. The functions with low reliability and their impact on other functions in the network are identified, so that design changes can be suggested for system reliability improvement.
A complex system does not necessarily have all components being monitored at the same time, causing another challenge in the reliability assessment problem. Sometimes there are a limited number of sensors deployed in the system to monitor the states of some components or subsystems, but not all of them. Data simultaneously collected from multiple sensors on the same system are analyzed using a Bayesian network approach, and the conditional probabilities of the network are estimated by combining failure information and expert opinions at both system and component levels. Several data scenarios with discrete, continuous and hybrid data (both discrete and continuous data) are analyzed. Posterior distributions of the reliability parameters of the system and components are assessed using simultaneous data.
Finally, a Bayesian framework is proposed to incorporate different sources of prior information and reconcile these different sources, including expert opinions and component information, in order to form a prior distribution for the system. Incorporating expert opinion in the form of pseudo-observations substantially simplifies statistical modeling, as opposed to the pooling techniques and supra Bayesian methods used for combining prior distributions in the literature.
The methods proposed are demonstrated with several case studies.
Bayesian networks generalize fault trees by allowing components and subsystems to be related by conditional probabilities instead of deterministic relationships; thus, they provide analytical advantages to the situation when the failure structure is not well understood, especially during the product design stage. In order to tackle this problem, one needs to utilize auxiliary information such as the reliability information from similar products and domain expertise. For this purpose, a Bayesian network approach is proposed to incorporate data from functional analysis and parent products. The functions with low reliability and their impact on other functions in the network are identified, so that design changes can be suggested for system reliability improvement.
A complex system does not necessarily have all components being monitored at the same time, causing another challenge in the reliability assessment problem. Sometimes there are a limited number of sensors deployed in the system to monitor the states of some components or subsystems, but not all of them. Data simultaneously collected from multiple sensors on the same system are analyzed using a Bayesian network approach, and the conditional probabilities of the network are estimated by combining failure information and expert opinions at both system and component levels. Several data scenarios with discrete, continuous and hybrid data (both discrete and continuous data) are analyzed. Posterior distributions of the reliability parameters of the system and components are assessed using simultaneous data.
Finally, a Bayesian framework is proposed to incorporate different sources of prior information and reconcile these different sources, including expert opinions and component information, in order to form a prior distribution for the system. Incorporating expert opinion in the form of pseudo-observations substantially simplifies statistical modeling, as opposed to the pooling techniques and supra Bayesian methods used for combining prior distributions in the literature.
The methods proposed are demonstrated with several case studies.
ContributorsYontay, Petek (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Shunk, Dan L. (Committee member) / Du, Xiaoping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
This research is to address the design optimization of systems for a specified reliability level, considering the dynamic nature of component failure rates. In case of designing a mechanical system (especially a load-sharing system), the failure of one component will lead to increase in probability of failure of remaining components. Many engineering systems like aircrafts, automobiles, and construction bridges will experience this phenomenon.
In order to design these systems, the Reliability-Based Design Optimization framework using Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA) method is developed. The dynamic nature of component failure probability is considered in the system reliability model. The Stress-Strength Interference (SSI) theory is used to build the limit state functions of components and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) lies at the heart of reliability assessment. Also, in situations where the user needs to determine the optimum number of components and reduce component redundancy, this method can be used to optimally allocate the required number of components to carry the system load. The main advantage of this method is that the computational efficiency is high and also any optimization and reliability assessment technique can be incorporated. Different cases of numerical examples are provided to validate the methodology.
In order to design these systems, the Reliability-Based Design Optimization framework using Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment (SORA) method is developed. The dynamic nature of component failure probability is considered in the system reliability model. The Stress-Strength Interference (SSI) theory is used to build the limit state functions of components and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) lies at the heart of reliability assessment. Also, in situations where the user needs to determine the optimum number of components and reduce component redundancy, this method can be used to optimally allocate the required number of components to carry the system load. The main advantage of this method is that the computational efficiency is high and also any optimization and reliability assessment technique can be incorporated. Different cases of numerical examples are provided to validate the methodology.
ContributorsBala Subramaniyan, Arun (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald (Committee member) / Ju, Feng (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
In this paper, a literature review is presented on the application of Bayesian networks applied in system reliability analysis. It is shown that Bayesian networks have become a popular modeling framework for system reliability analysis due to the benefits that Bayesian networks have the capability and flexibility to model complex systems, update the probability according to evidences and give a straightforward and compact graphical representation. Research on approaches for Bayesian network learning and inference are summarized. Two groups of models with multistate nodes were developed for scenarios from constant to continuous time to apply and contrast Bayesian networks with classical fault tree method. The expanded model discretized the continuous variables and provided failure related probability distribution over time.
ContributorsZhou, Duan (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Committee member) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014