Matching Items (5)
Description
This dissertation is intended to tie together a body of work which utilizes a variety of methods to study applied mathematical models involving heterogeneity often omitted with classical modeling techniques. I posit three cogent classifications of heterogeneity: physiological, behavioral, and local (specifically connectivity in this work). I consider physiological heterogeneity using the method of transport equations to study heterogeneous susceptibility to diseases in open populations (those with births and deaths). I then present three separate models of behavioral heterogeneity. An SIS/SAS model of gonorrhea transmission in a population of highly active men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) is presented to study the impact of safe behavior (prevention and self-awareness) on the prevalence of this endemic disease. Behavior is modeled in this examples via static parameters describing consistent condom use and frequency of STD testing. In an example of behavioral heterogeneity, in the absence of underlying dynamics, I present a generalization to ``test theory without an answer key" (also known as cultural consensus modeling or CCM). CCM is commonly used to study the distribution of cultural knowledge within a population. The generalized framework presented allows for selecting the best model among various extensions of CCM: multiple subcultures, estimating the degree to which individuals guess yes, and making competence homogenous in the population. This permits model selection based on the principle of information criteria. The third behaviorally heterogeneous model studies adaptive behavioral response based on epidemiological-economic theory within an $SIR$ epidemic setting. Theorems used to analyze the stability of such models with a generalized, non-linear incidence structure are adapted and applied to the case of standard incidence and adaptive incidence. As an example of study in spatial heterogeneity I provide an explicit solution to a generalization of the continuous time approximation of the Albert-Barabasi scale-free network algorithm. The solution is found by recursively solving the differential equations via integrating factors, identifying a pattern for the coefficients and then proving this observed pattern is consistent using induction. An application to disease dynamics on such evolving structures is then studied.
ContributorsMorin, Benjamin (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Hiebeler, David (Thesis advisor) / Hruschka, Daniel (Committee member) / Suslov, Sergei (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
In this dissertation the potential impact of some social, cultural and economic factors on
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) dynamics and control are studied. In Chapter two, the inability
to detect and isolate a large fraction of EVD-infected individuals before symptoms onset is
addressed. A mathematical model, calibrated with data from the 2014 West African outbreak,
is used to show the dynamics of EVD control under various quarantine and isolation
effectiveness regimes. It is shown that in order to make a difference it must reach a high
proportion of the infected population. The effect of EVD-dead bodies has been incorporated
in the quarantine effectiveness. In Chapter four, the potential impact of differential
risk is assessed. A two-patch model without explicitly incorporate quarantine is used to
assess the impact of mobility on communities at risk of EVD. It is shown that the
overall EVD burden may lessen when mobility in this artificial high-low risk society is allowed.
The cost that individuals in the low-risk patch must pay, as measured by secondary
cases is highlighted. In Chapter five a model explicitly incorporating patch-specific quarantine
levels is used to show that quarantine a large enough proportion of the population
under effective isolation leads to a measurable reduction of secondary cases in the presence
of mobility. It is shown that sharing limited resources can improve the effectiveness of
EVD effective control in the two-patch high-low risk system. Identifying the conditions
under which the low-risk community would be willing to accept the increases in EVD risk,
needed to reduce the total number of secondary cases in a community composed of two
patches with highly differentiated risks has not been addressed. In summary, this dissertation
looks at EVD dynamics within an idealized highly polarized world where resources
are primarily in the hands of a low-risk community – a community of lower density, higher
levels of education and reasonable health services – that shares a “border” with a high-risk
community that lacks minimal resources to survive an EVD outbreak.
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) dynamics and control are studied. In Chapter two, the inability
to detect and isolate a large fraction of EVD-infected individuals before symptoms onset is
addressed. A mathematical model, calibrated with data from the 2014 West African outbreak,
is used to show the dynamics of EVD control under various quarantine and isolation
effectiveness regimes. It is shown that in order to make a difference it must reach a high
proportion of the infected population. The effect of EVD-dead bodies has been incorporated
in the quarantine effectiveness. In Chapter four, the potential impact of differential
risk is assessed. A two-patch model without explicitly incorporate quarantine is used to
assess the impact of mobility on communities at risk of EVD. It is shown that the
overall EVD burden may lessen when mobility in this artificial high-low risk society is allowed.
The cost that individuals in the low-risk patch must pay, as measured by secondary
cases is highlighted. In Chapter five a model explicitly incorporating patch-specific quarantine
levels is used to show that quarantine a large enough proportion of the population
under effective isolation leads to a measurable reduction of secondary cases in the presence
of mobility. It is shown that sharing limited resources can improve the effectiveness of
EVD effective control in the two-patch high-low risk system. Identifying the conditions
under which the low-risk community would be willing to accept the increases in EVD risk,
needed to reduce the total number of secondary cases in a community composed of two
patches with highly differentiated risks has not been addressed. In summary, this dissertation
looks at EVD dynamics within an idealized highly polarized world where resources
are primarily in the hands of a low-risk community – a community of lower density, higher
levels of education and reasonable health services – that shares a “border” with a high-risk
community that lacks minimal resources to survive an EVD outbreak.
ContributorsEspinoza Cortes, Baltazar (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Safan, Muntaser (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
One solution to mitigating global climate change is using cyanobacteria or single-celled algae (collectively microalgae) to replace petroleum-based fuels and products, thereby reducing the net release of carbon dioxide. This work develops and evaluates a mechanistic kinetic model for light-dependent microalgal growth. Light interacts with microalgae in a variety of positive and negative ways that are captured by the model: light intensity (LI) attenuates through a microalgal culture, light absorption provides the energy and electron flows that drive photosynthesis, microalgae pool absorbed light energy, microalgae acclimate to different LI conditions, too-high LI causes damage to the cells’ photosystems, and sharp increases in light cause severe photoinhibition that inhibits growth. The model accounts for all these phenomena by using a set of state variables that represent the pooled light energy, photoacclimation, PSII photo-damage, PSII repair inhibition and PSI photodamage. Sets of experiments were conducted with the cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 during step-changes in light intensity and flashing light. The model was able to represent and explain all phenomena observed in the experiments. This included the spike and depression in growth rate following an increasing light step, the temporary depression in growth rate following a decreasing light step, the shape of the steady-state growth-irradiance curve, and the “blending” of light and dark periods under rapid flashes of light. The LI model is a marked improvement over previous light-dependent growth models, and can be used to design and interpret future experiments and practical systems for generating renewable feedstock to replace petroleum.
ContributorsStraka, Levi (Author) / Rittmann, Bruce E. (Thesis advisor) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Torres, César I (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Variation in living systems and how it cascades across organizational levels is central to biology. To understand the constraints and amplifications of variation in collective systems, I mathematically study how group-level differences emerge from individual variation in eusocial-insect colonies, which are inherently diverse and easily observable individually and collectively. Considering collective processes in three species where increasing degrees of heterogeneity are relevant, I address how individual variation scales to colony-level variation and to what degree it is adaptive. In Chapter 2, I introduce a Markov-chain decision model for stochastic individual quorum-based recruitment decisions of rock-ant workers during house hunting, and how they determine collective speed--accuracy balance. Differences in the average threshold-dependent response characteristics of workers between colonies cause collective differences in decision-making. Moreover, noisy behavior may prevent drastic collective cascading into poor nests. In Chapter 3, I develop an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to study how cognitive diversity among honey-bee foragers influences collective attention allocation between novel and familiar resources. Results provide a mechanistic basis for changes in foraging activity and preference with group composition. Moreover, sensitivity analysis reveals that the main individual driver for foraging allocation shifts from recruitment (communication) to persistence (independent effort) as colony composition changes. This might favor specific degrees of heterogeneity that best amplify communication in wild colonies. Lastly, in Chapter 4, I consider diversity in size, age, and task for nest defense in stingless bees. To better understand how these dimensions of diversity interact to balance defensive demands with other colony needs, I study their effect on colony size and task allocation through a demographic Filippov ODE model. Along each dimension, variation is beneficial in a certain range, outside of which colony adaptation and survival are compromised. This work elucidates how variation in collective properties emerges from nonlinear interactions between varying components in eusocial insects, but it can be generalized to other biological systems with similar fundamental characteristics but less empirical tractability. Moreover, it has the potential of inspiring algorithms that capitalize on heterogeneity in engineered systems where simple components with limited information and no central control must solve complex tasks.
ContributorsNavas Zuloaga, Maria Gabriela (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis advisor) / Smith, Brian H (Thesis advisor) / Pavlic, Theodore P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
The main objective of mathematical modeling is to connect mathematics with other scientific fields. Developing predictable models help to understand the behavior of biological systems. By testing models, one can relate mathematics and real-world experiments. To validate predictions numerically, one has to compare them with experimental data sets. Mathematical modeling can be split into two groups: microscopic and macroscopic models. Microscopic models described the motion of so-called agents (e.g. cells, ants) that interact with their surrounding neighbors. The interactions among these agents form at a large scale some special structures such as flocking and swarming. One of the key questions is to relate the particular interactions among agents with the overall emerging structures. Macroscopic models are precisely designed to describe the evolution of such large structures. They are usually given as partial differential equations describing the time evolution of a density distribution (instead of tracking each individual agent). For instance, reaction-diffusion equations are used to model glioma cells and are being used to predict tumor growth. This dissertation aims at developing such a framework to better understand the complex behavior of foraging ants and glioma cells.
ContributorsJamous, Sara Sami (Author) / Motsch, Sebastien (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Camacho, Erika (Committee member) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019