Matching Items (3)
Description
The uncertainty of change inherent in issues such as climate change and regional growth has created a significant challenge for public decision makers trying to decide what adaptation actions are needed to respond to these possible changes. This challenge threatens the resiliency and thus the long term sustainability of our social-ecological systems. Using an empirical embedded case study approach to explore the application of advanced scenario analysis methods to regional growth visioning projects in two regions, this dissertation provides empirical evidence that for issues with high uncertainty, advanced scenario planning (ASP) methods are effective tools for helping decision makers to anticipate and prepare to adapt to change.
ContributorsQuay, Ray (Author) / Pijawka, David (Thesis advisor) / Shangraw, Ralph (Committee member) / Holway, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
In this dissertation, I explore the possibility of Latin American Futurism/s because Latin American visions of the future are primarily absent from the global conversation of alternative or counter futures. In three chapters, I expose three interrelated yet methodologically different approaches to understanding the emerging phenomenon of Latin American Futurism/s: A exploration of the connections between notions of visions of technology/futures for El Salvador's Bitcoin and South Cone's robots, the experiences and practices of local future-makers and their communities; and artifacts that characterize expressions of regional futuring. To comprehend the region's technological paradigms, I offer these socio-technical accounts of Future-making and Future-knowledge for/from Latin America as a geo-political region. Each element contributes, with its different interdisciplinary perspective, to characterizing "Latin American Futurism/s" as a form of technological rationality and regional futuring as an expression of shared paradigms about science and technology. These characterizations allow for an appreciation of the paradigms, strategies, and artifacts that configure domestic and professional futurity in Latin America, focusing on its objects and visions as mediators and sense-makers of what ought to come. In this manuscript, I offer a characterization of Latin American futurism/s to facilitate its recognition and understanding and to put in value the production of forward-oriented knowledge produced by people thinking and living in Latin America.
ContributorsPérez Comisso, Martín Andrés (Author) / Smith, Lindsay A (Thesis advisor) / Keeler, Lauren W (Thesis advisor) / Bennett, Michael G (Committee member) / Wetmore, Jameson (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Threatcasting is a foresight methodology that examines the worst of potential future changes by imagining and crafting a fictional (but very plausible) story of a person, in a detailed setting, experiencing a threat. In this dissertation, I investigate the processes and techniques of threatcasting, focused primarily on the post-analysis phase, and demonstrate it as an open methodology that can embrace varied ways to analyze raw data and seek conclusions. I incorporate best practices of narrative and thematic analysis, qualitative analysis, grounded theory, and hypothesis-driven theories of inquiry. I use interviews from futurists trained on threatcasting ways of thinking and compare two case studies - one using a grounded theory approach on the future of weapons of mass destruction and cyberspace and the other using a hypothesis-driven approach on the future of extremism - to investigate the efficacy of different theoretical approaches to analysis. I introduce definitions of novelty and ways to assess how a novel finding may have more impact on the future than it appears at first glance. Often, this impact comes more from what is not present in threat scenarios than what is included. Finally, I illustrate how threatcasting, as a practice, is a valuable contribution to those in a position to be responsible architects of a better future.
ContributorsBrown, Jason C. (Author) / Maynard, Andrew (Thesis advisor) / Johnson, Brian David (Committee member) / Robert, Jason (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021