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Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Research shows that many water governance regimes are failing to guide social-ecological systems away from points, beyond which, damage to social and environmental well-being will be difficult to correct. This problem is apparent in regions that face water conflicts and climate threats. There remains a need to clarify what is it about governance that people need to change in water conflict prone regions, how to collectively go about doing that, and how research can actively support this. To address these needs, here I present a collaborative research project from the dry tropics of Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica. The project addressed the overarching questions: How can water be governed sustainably in water-contested and climate-threatened regions? And, how can people transition current water governance regimes toward more sustainable ones? In pursuit of these questions, a series of individual studies were performed with many partners and collaborators. These studies included: a participatory analysis and sustainability assessment of current water governance regimes; a case analysis and comparison of water conflicts; constructing alternative governance scenarios; and, developing governance transition strategies. Results highlight the need for water governance that addresses asymmetrical knowledge gaps especially concerning groundwater resources, reconciles disenfranchised groups, and supports local leaders. Yet, actions taken based on these initial results, despite some success influencing policy, found substantial challenges confronting them. In-depth conflict investigations, for example, found that deeply rooted issues such friction between opposing local-based and national institutions were key conflict drivers in the region. To begin addressing these issues, researchers and stakeholders then constructed a set of governing alternatives and devised governance transition strategies that could actively support people to achieve more sustainable alternatives and avoid less sustainable ones. These efforts yielded insight into the collective actions needed to implement more sustainable water governance regimes, including ways to overcoming barriers that drive harmful water conflicts. Actions based on these initial strategies yielded further opportunities, challenges, and lessons. Overall, the project addresses the research and policy gap between identifying what is sustainable water governance and understanding the strategies needed to implement it successfully in regions that experience water conflict and climate impacts.
ContributorsKuzdas, Christopher Paul (Author) / Wiek, Arnim (Thesis advisor) / Childers, Daniel (Thesis advisor) / Vignola, Raffaele (Committee member) / Eakin, Hallie (Committee member) / Basile, George (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s National Water Model (NWM) will provide the next generation of operational streamflow forecasts at different lead times across United States using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro hydrologic system. These forecasts are crucial for flood protection agencies and water utilities, including the Salt River Project (SRP). The main goal of this study is to calibrate WRF-Hydro in the Oak Creek Basin (OCB; ~820 km2), an unregulated mountain sub-watershed of the Salt and Verde River basins in Central Arizona, whose water resources are managed by SRP and crucial for the Phoenix Metropolitan area. As in the NWM, WRF-Hydro was set up at 1-km (250-m) resolution for the computation of the rainfall-runoff (routing) processes. Model forcings were obtained by bias correcting meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System-2 (NLDAS-2). A manual calibration approach was designed that targets, in sequence, the sets of model parameters controlling four main processes responsible for streamflow and flood generation in the OCB. After a first calibration effort, it was found that WRF-Hydro is able to simulate runoff generated after snowmelt and baseflow, as well as magnitude and timing of flood peaks due to winter storms. However, the model underestimates the magnitude of flood peaks caused by summer thunderstorms, likely because these storms are not captured by NLDAS-2. To circumvent this, a seasonal modification of soil parameters was adopted. When doing so, acceptable model performances were obtained during calibration (2008-2011) and validation (2012-2017) periods (NSE > 0.62 and RMSE = ~2.5 m3/s at the daily time scale).
The process-based calibration strategy utilized in this work provides a new approach to identify areas of structural improvement for WRF-Hydro and the NWM.
The process-based calibration strategy utilized in this work provides a new approach to identify areas of structural improvement for WRF-Hydro and the NWM.
ContributorsHussein, Abdinur Jirow (Author) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Thesis advisor) / Xu, Tianfang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020