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Description中国商品期货市场经历30年发展,已初备协调资源分配、对冲经营风险的功能。但受产业自身和期货市场发展的制约,各期货品种市场有效性参差不齐。随着我国经济从增量阶段过渡到存量阶段,期货作为企业的价格管理和风险控制工具的重要性日益凸显,因此研究我国商品期货市场有效性具有非常好的现实意义。

本文开创性的从期货的基本功能——资源配置的角度出发,提出有效市场是指其期货价格能够对本行业社会资源起到合理的调配作用的市场。在内容安排上,本文首先总结了现有国际成熟期货品种的特点并找出能够反映期货对资源配置能力的四个指标假说,分别为期现回归性、利润波动性、库存波动性以及现金流变化,然后通过数学模型证明指标数据和品种成熟度的关联,最后应用该套指标对我国商品市场有效性进行检验。数学方法上,本文先采用Bai-Perron内生多重结构突变模型对时间序列进行突变点检验,然后对断点时间序列分别进行多元回归,并在剔除季节性和周期性后,通过平稳性检验、ARCH效应检验结果来确定相应的Garch模型,并用Garch模型来描述时间序列的波动性。

通过数学验证,我们认为期现回归性、利润波动性、库存波动性以及现金流变化这四个指标可以作为反映期货成熟度的检验指标,用该套方法对国内部分活跃品种检验后发现大连豆粕期货已经具备成熟品种的特征,本文认为豆粕期货市场是有效的;PTA、玉米淀粉期货的四个检验指标在近年来表现出时间序列优化的特点,但因时间较短尚不稳定,可以认为是接近成熟的品种;而螺纹钢和铝期货在多数指标上表现不佳,表明他们对社会资源配置能力较差,因此本文认为螺纹钢和铝期货市场是活跃但非有效的。通过进一步分析,本文认为品种的期现回归性差是制约其资源配置能力发挥的关键因素,而交易标的不明确、

仓单制作难度大、产业参与度低以及期货设计中的其他限制因素又是导致期现回归性差的重要原因。
ContributorsWang, Ping (Author) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Li, Feng (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description本文采用2010年1月1日至2017年12月31日在香港主板IPO上市的共574家公司作为研究样本,系统采集包括与发行人、承销商、投资人、发行热度、市场每日交易数据等相关的数据近100项,对超额配售选择权在香港IPO中的实际效用进行实证研究,研究发现:1)超额配售选择的确可以起到提高发行价格,降低IPO抑价率的作用,但是同时也是破发的主要原因。2)由超额配售选择权赋予承销商稳价行为中,市场买入量越大,最大回撤越大,市场下跌风险越大同时超额配售选择权还导致了最大回撤日的推后,增大了稳价结束后的市场风险,而这很有可能是由于承销商追求更高利益造成的。3)没有证据显示,超额配售选择权会降低承销商的佣金比例,但是,超额配售选择权却为承销商带来非常高的额外收益,而这个收益与市场下跌幅度和承销商从市场购买股份的比例直接相关。

其中,本文首次对最大回撤率、最大回撤日与承销商市场买入量之间的关系进行实证研究,揭示了承销商市场买入量与承销商收益正相关,与最大回撤率负相关,与最大回撤日正相关的关系,可能是增加市场下跌风险的因素。这与现有理论中及监管机构的预期中,“超额配售选择权具有向上稳定价格的作用”是有一定偏差的。

根据研究结果,本文首先建议发行人要客观对待超额配售选择权提升发行价格的作用,以免引起破发。其次建议市场投资人要客观认识超额配售选择权的作用,不要由于超额配售选择权的存在给与发行过高的认同价格。再次建议发行人要能够认识到超额配售选择权是承销商零成本获得的一个有固定收益保障的看空期权,是承销商在承销IPO时的收益之一,而股价下跌幅度与承销商的收益正相关。因此要对承销商的稳价行为进行一定管控,同时可以因为超额配售选择权的存在而要求更低的承销佣金比例。最后建议承销商要维护市场公平,爱护自己的声誉,尽可能避免因超额配售选择权的使用对市场造成不应有的干扰。
ContributorsXie, Hui (Author) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Jiang, Zhan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description中医药是中华文明的瑰宝,中药材是中医药文化和产业的核心。随着近年来国家相关政策出台,中药材产业的发展备受瞩目。由于中药材产业链条长,层级多,各层级间信息不对称,因而中药材市场普遍具有“假”、“乱”、“杂”的问题。

A公司的中药材全产业链服务商模式,通过对上游各主要专营商的整合,形成一定的平台综合集采能力,并开始得到下游医药厂家、药店认可,在市场逐步形成品牌号召力。本文实证研究A公司商业模式的转型对中药材市场价格的影响,进而分析中药材全产业链服务商模式在中药材行业健康发展中所发挥的积极作用。研究结果表明,上下游产销结合的中药材全产业链服务商模式,只有在形成一定收购规模,对市场价格产生一定影响的时候,才能充分释放药材质量的信号,润滑药材交易市场,提高收购价格,增加市场波动率,发挥价格发现作用。由于中药材市场的信息不对称程度较高,如果产销结合模式仍处于初级开创阶段,产销结合模式释放的药材质量信号则不足以全面改善信息不对称的状况。
ContributorsYin, Xiaowei (Author) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Gu, Bin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description本论文研究的目的是针对银行卡跨境支付行为,根据不同的跨境支付渠道,结合资金清算的不同模式下的资金清算效率进行研究,并对现有清算系统内,运用理论和模型,对如何提高银行卡跨境资金清算进行阐述分析,力图在现有跨境资金清算金融设施的基础上,对银行卡跨境资金清算的流动性管理、头寸控制、增加清算周期等因素进行研究分析,进而尝试提出清算机制和流程的优化设计,以促进跨境资金提高周转效率,节约社会交易成本和持卡人资金成本。

论文将对相关银行卡跨境支付、清算基本流程、涉及的相关系统进行说明,并对全球和世界主要国家的银行卡市场进行介绍,结合我国银行卡跨境业务的现状、跨境支付清算涉及的主要环节、清算系统,通过不同层次、不同模型的分类比对,提出提高银行卡跨境支付资金清算的关键节点,并加以聚焦、深入测算、推导。研究的最终目的是期望通过对以上的分析,能够对银行卡资金清算参与主体对清算模式的选择、流动性节约、头寸管理等有所帮助,让清算主体能籍此对支付通道、清算模式、账户管理等选择上有所参考,促进卡组织(支付系统)籍此提高清算效率,从而降低整体交易和资金成本,提高支付行业整体资金资源的使用效率。
ContributorsZhao, Jinxing (Author) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Anmin (Thesis advisor) / Zheng, Zhiqiang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description随着中国经济过去30多年的高速发展,出现了一大批的高收入人群,他们更注重生活的品质,如追求自然、简约、低调的休闲生活方式,更看重健康生活、自身的身心修养,和提高自身修养的内涵式生活,以及注重子女的内涵气质教育。

同时,具有很强烈地获得心理认同的需求,参加各种以消费和交往为媒介和主体活动的社群或“社交圈子”,在心理和情感上自我获得与其在财富、生活方式以及生活品位等诸方面都类似的群体间的身份认同感和归属感;更看着与其社会阶层相匹配的身份地位、社交人脉、兴趣爱好等。

因此,从运营的角度来看,如何增加上述这些高净值人群对高净值社群的归属感,进而提高其对高净值社群的忠诚度,是高净值社群进一步可持续经营和发展的基石。本研究以上海嘉庭俱乐部为例,在对问卷调查的基础上,通过实证研究,探讨影响高净值社群归属感与忠诚度的关键因素,高净值社群中会员的归属感与忠诚度的关系,会员生活型态的差异使得归属感与忠诚度的影响关系呈现显著的不同。

实证研究表明,“时尚流行”会员较为理性,其更注重休闲风尚;而“优雅休闲与享受尊荣”的会员则偏感性,其相当注重心灵感受与宁静舒适的感觉,强调全家共享以及纯封闭式的会员享受,能够更多地认识到与个人品味和品位相同的人,如对生活品质的追求、价值观、子女教育等;内心更开放、所接受教育程度更高的家庭,在嘉庭会感受到的归属感意识更高、其忠诚度也更高。
ContributorsLi, Hailin (Author) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Xinlei (Thesis advisor) / Chang, Chun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description摘要

当前中国农村集体经济呈现出后劲不足、区域失衡等问题。在此背景下,如何破解集体经济发展困境、实现其从梯度到均衡的演进成为学术领域关注的热点。本文梳理总结了国内外集体经济的相关研究成果,阐述了主要涉及的基础概念、理论和方法模型;以2008~2015年无锡市滨湖区92个村为研究样本,分析了该区域集体经济的发展现状和演变进程;构建面板回归模型,探索了该区域集体经济发展的驱动因素与分布不平衡性;并从空间关联视角切入,探索了驱动因素的溢出效应;最后基于研究结果提出对策建议。主要结论如下:

(1)2008~2015年,92个村的村级集体经济发展整体呈现上升趋势,但地区间的贫富差距明显;2008年、2011年和2015年92个村按村级集体经济总收入可划分为高、中、低3类,并且在不同时段,各等级间的村级集体单位会相互迁移;集体经济收入呈现明显的右偏分布,尖峰厚尾的特征显著。随着时间的推移,集体经济发展出现了“双峰趋同”的现象。

(2)普通面板回归显示,物质资本、经济工作能力、科技进步对于村级集体经济发展有正向的依次减弱的影响,人口数量的影响为负;面板分位数回归显示,随着分位数水平的提高,物质资本系数先上升、后下降再上升;经济工作能力系数逐渐减小;人口规模系数先下降后上升;科技进步系数波动上升。

(3)空间计量结果显示,各变量对于村级集体经济发展具有一定的溢出效应,其中,物质资本的溢出效应为正(不显著),经济工作能力的溢出效应为正(显著),人口因素的溢出效应为负(不显著),科技进步的溢出效应为正(显著)。

本文的创新之处在于使用较难获取的2008-2015年92个村面板数据进行回归,相比于截面数据,更准确地测度了各要素对集体经济的真实影响;将空间关联因素纳入研究视域,探究了村级集体经济驱动因素的空间溢出效应。
ContributorsJin, Liang (Author) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Anmin (Thesis advisor) / Zhu, Qigui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description
This study investigates the impact of a specific organizational form – partnership – on employees’ awareness of risk control and job engagement in securities companies. Given that their organizational performance relies heavily on the performance of individual employees, it is critical for securities companies in China to adopt appropriate organizational

This study investigates the impact of a specific organizational form – partnership – on employees’ awareness of risk control and job engagement in securities companies. Given that their organizational performance relies heavily on the performance of individual employees, it is critical for securities companies in China to adopt appropriate organizational forms so that they can better captalize on their employees’ human capital to cope with the increasingly intense market competition. Partnership, as one of the few organizational forms, has been widely adopted in industries that rely on the performance of individuals, such as law, auditing, consulting, and investment banking, around the world. In the context of China’s emerging economy, it has also been adopted as an incentive system by market leaders across several industries, including Alibaba in online shopping, Vanke in real estate, and Fosun in investments. In contrast, partnership has not been adopted or implemented by securities companies in China as most of them are still state-owned enterprises.

Based on my review of the corporate governance literature and qualitative analysis of partnership adoption in China, I propose that partnership can help better alighn the interests of employees with owners in securities companies as well. Specifically, the prospect of becoming a partner in the future can improve employees’ awareness of risk control and increase their job engagement. Taking advantage of partnership adoption at a Chinese securities company as a natural field experienment, I surveyed its employees about their awareness of risk contrl and job dedication before and after the adoption. The results from 505 matched surveys showed an increase in the average scores of both awareness of risk control and job dedication after the company adopted partnership as a new organizational form. Findings of this study have important implications for organizational and incentive design for securities companies in China.
ContributorsSha, Changming (Author) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Li, Feng (Thesis advisor) / Gu, Bin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
During the past decade, the Chinese bond market has been rapidly developing. The percentage of bond to total social funding is constantly increasing. The structure and behavior of investors are crucial to the construction of China’s bond market. Due to specific credit risks, bond market regulation usually involves in rules

During the past decade, the Chinese bond market has been rapidly developing. The percentage of bond to total social funding is constantly increasing. The structure and behavior of investors are crucial to the construction of China’s bond market. Due to specific credit risks, bond market regulation usually involves in rules to control investor adequancy. It is heatedly discussed among academia and regulators about whether individual investors are adequate to directly participate in bond trading. This paper focuses on the comparison between individual and institutional bond investors, especially their returns and risks. Based on the comparison, this paper provides constructive suggestions for China’s bond market development and the bond market investor structure.
ContributorsLiu, Shaotong (Author) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Zhu, Ning (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Description
Given the "New Nine Measures" for capital market reform, a policy document issued by the State Council of China, the development of markets for interest rate derivatives, such as treasury futures, becomes an increasingly important task. Several shortcomings of the existing treasury futures market have been noted: including low market

Given the "New Nine Measures" for capital market reform, a policy document issued by the State Council of China, the development of markets for interest rate derivatives, such as treasury futures, becomes an increasingly important task. Several shortcomings of the existing treasury futures market have been noted: including low market liquidity, singular investor composition, restrict contract terms, and low hedging demand.

This study contributes to a better understanding of the treasury futures market by analyzing changes in China treasury futures market regulations and their impact on market liquidity of treasury futures. Found that compared with the mature market, China treasury futures market exists liquidity shortage, the trading system, market structure and the division of regulatory are factors which influence the liquidity of China treasury futures market.

This study found that reducing transaction costs for further optimization of the width and depth of China treasury futures market are not obvious by using quantitative analysis method, expanding the smallest change price can optimize the market depth, reducing transaction costs and expanding smallest change price can optimize the immediacy, volume and hosting amount. In addition, the bond market will also influence the treasury futures market, the price fluctuations and the morphology of the yield curve of bond market have significant influence on width, depth and holdings of market.

The system of China treasury futures market needs to be optimized by expanding the smallest change price and reducing transaction costs. The market structure needs to be optimized by establishing unified bond market and enriching investor structure.

These findings have significant theoretical and practical implications. The study also provides policy recommendations for the design and establishment of treasury futures market to the regulatory agencies.
ContributorsMa, Jun (Author) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Tan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Description
The recent changes in the software markets gave users an unprecedented number

of alternatives for any given task. In such a competitive environment, it is imperative

to understand what drives user behavior. To that end, the research presented in

this dissertation, tries to uncover the impact of business strategies often used in the

software

The recent changes in the software markets gave users an unprecedented number

of alternatives for any given task. In such a competitive environment, it is imperative

to understand what drives user behavior. To that end, the research presented in

this dissertation, tries to uncover the impact of business strategies often used in the

software markets.

The dissertation is organized into three distinct studies into user choice and post

choice use of software. First using social judgment theory as foundation, zero price

strategies effects on user choice is investigated, with respect to product features,

consumer characteristics, and context effects. Second, role of social features in

moderating network effects on user choice is studied. And finally, the role of social

features on the effectiveness of add-on content strategy on continued user engagement

is investigated.

The findings of this dissertation highlight the alignments between popular business

strategies and broad software context. The dissertation contributes to the litera-

ture by uncovering hitherto overlooked complementarities between business strategy

and product features: (1) zero price strategy enhances utilitarian features but not

non-utilitarian features in software choice, (2) social features only enhance network

externalities but not social influence in user choice, (3) social features enhance the

effect of add-on content strategy in extending software engagement.
ContributorsKanat, Irfan (Author) / Santanam, Raghu (Thesis advisor) / Vinze, Ajay (Thesis advisor) / Gu, Bin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016