Matching Items (10)
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The Internet and climate change are two forces that are poised to both cause and enable changes in how we provide our energy infrastructure. The Internet has catalyzed enormous changes across many sectors by shifting the feedback and organizational structure of systems towards more decentralized users. Today’s energy systems require

The Internet and climate change are two forces that are poised to both cause and enable changes in how we provide our energy infrastructure. The Internet has catalyzed enormous changes across many sectors by shifting the feedback and organizational structure of systems towards more decentralized users. Today’s energy systems require colossal shifts toward a more sustainable future. However, energy systems face enormous socio-technical lock-in and, thus far, have been largely unaffected by these destabilizing forces. More distributed information offers not only the ability to craft new markets, but to accelerate learning processes that respond to emerging user or prosumer centered design needs. This may include values and needs such as local reliability, transparency and accountability, integration into the built environment, and reduction of local pollution challenges.

The same institutions (rules, norms and strategies) that dominated with the hierarchical infrastructure system of the twentieth century are unlikely to be good fit if a more distributed infrastructure increases in dominance. As information is produced at more distributed points, it is more difficult to coordinate and manage as an interconnected system. This research examines several aspects of these, historically dominant, infrastructure provisioning strategies to understand the implications of managing more distributed information. The first chapter experimentally examines information search and sharing strategies under different information protection rules. The second and third chapters focus on strategies to model and compare distributed energy production effects on shared electricity grid infrastructure. Finally, the fourth chapter dives into the literature of co-production, and explores connections between concepts in co-production and modularity (an engineering approach to information encapsulation) using the distributed energy resource regulations for San Diego, CA. Each of these sections highlights different aspects of how information rules offer a design space to enable a more adaptive, innovative and sustainable energy system that can more easily react to the shocks of the twenty-first century.
ContributorsTyson, Madeline (Author) / Janssen, Marco (Thesis advisor) / Tuttle, John (Committee member) / Allenby, Braden (Committee member) / Potts, Jason (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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This paper investigates whether measures of investor sentiment can be used to predict future total returns of the S&P 500 index. Rolling regressions and other statistical techniques are used to determine which indicators contain the most predictive information and which time horizons' returns are "easiest" to predict in a three

This paper investigates whether measures of investor sentiment can be used to predict future total returns of the S&P 500 index. Rolling regressions and other statistical techniques are used to determine which indicators contain the most predictive information and which time horizons' returns are "easiest" to predict in a three year data set. The five "most predictive" indicators are used to predict 180 calendar day future returns of the market and simulated investment of hypothetical accounts is conducted in an independent six year data set based on the rolling regression future return predictions. Some indicators, most notably the VIX index, appear to contain predictive information which led to out-performance of the accounts that invested based on the rolling regression model's predictions.
ContributorsDundas, Matthew William (Author) / Boggess, May (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Hedegaard, Esben (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-12
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In recent years, the number of applications for admission to graduate education programs has increased. Researchers attempted to gain insight into this increase by examining student perception of the costs and benefits of pursuing graduate-level education. In order to gauge this perception, researchers administered an online survey to 151 subjects

In recent years, the number of applications for admission to graduate education programs has increased. Researchers attempted to gain insight into this increase by examining student perception of the costs and benefits of pursuing graduate-level education. In order to gauge this perception, researchers administered an online survey to 151 subjects from Barrett, the Honors College at Arizona State University. Student perception was then compared to data released by ASU detailing actual costs and benefits of obtaining graduate-level education. Researchers' prediction that increased levels of parental education would be associated with more accurate estimates of the benefits of graduate-level education was correct at a statistically significant level. Further, being male was statistically significantly associated with an increase in starting salary overestimation.
ContributorsCunningham, Shelly Kathryn (Author) / DeSerpa, Allan (Thesis director) / Baldwin, Marjorie (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor)
Created2015-05
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Evolutionary theory predicts that animal behavior is generally governed by decision rules (heuristics) which adhere to ecological rationality: the tendency to make decisions that maximize fitness in most situations the animal encounters. However, the particular heuristics used by ant colonies of the genus Temnothorax and their propensity towards ecological rationality

Evolutionary theory predicts that animal behavior is generally governed by decision rules (heuristics) which adhere to ecological rationality: the tendency to make decisions that maximize fitness in most situations the animal encounters. However, the particular heuristics used by ant colonies of the genus Temnothorax and their propensity towards ecological rationality are up for debate. These ants are adept at choosing a nest site, making a collective decision based on complex interactions between the many individual choices made by workers. Colonies will migrate between nests either upon the destruction of their current home or the discovery of a sufficiently superior nest. This study offers a descriptive analysis of the heuristics potentially used in nest-site decision-making. Colonies were offered a choice of nests characterized by the Ebbinghaus Illusion: a perceptual illusion which effectively causes the viewer to perceive a circle as larger when it is surrounded by small circles than when that same circle is surrounded by large circles. Colonies were separated into two conditions: in one, they were given the option to move to a high-quality nest surrounded by poor-quality nests, and in the other they were given the option to move to a high-quality nest surrounded by medium-quality nests. The colonies in the poor condition were found to be more likely to move to the good nest than were colonies in the medium condition at a statistically significant level. That is, they responded to the Ebbinghaus Effect in the way that is normally expected. This result was discussed in terms of its implications for the ecological rationality of the nest-site choice behavior of these ants.
ContributorsTalken, Lucas Warren (Author) / Pratt, Stephen (Thesis director) / Sasaki, Takao (Committee member) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor)
Created2014-05
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This study aims to identify the potential irrationality in the personal investment decision-making habits of university students, as influenced by the framing effect, loss aversion, and related heuristics. Researchers conducted a cross-sectional study of 114 students (n = 102). Participants responded to a survey regarding their willingness to invest in

This study aims to identify the potential irrationality in the personal investment decision-making habits of university students, as influenced by the framing effect, loss aversion, and related heuristics. Researchers conducted a cross-sectional study of 114 students (n = 102). Participants responded to a survey regarding their willingness to invest in certain hypothetical investment scenarios. Outcome was measured primarily using Likert scales and yes
o binomial options regarding the participant’s willingness to participate in a specific deal. The study was broken into three blocks, the first of which dealt with the framing effect and the subsequent two considered loss aversion. Of the data collected, there were multiple significant results found to support the framing effect and loss aversion. There was a significant difference between responses that were positively and negatively framed, and between varying upside potential in equivalent-risk scenarios. For block one, those participants who received the positive framing condition were more likely to invest in the master’s program than those who received the negative framing condition. For blocks two and three, the majority of participants exhibited loss averse behavior more extreme than the predicted amounts; closer to 4x the upside was required (rather than the predicted 2x) for the participants to participate in the deal. Although the results did replicate the framing effect and loss aversion, college students were more loss averse than was predicted.
ContributorsKlemish, Colby (Author) / Radway, Debra (Thesis director) / Arrfelt, Mathias (Committee member) / Goldinger, Stephen (Committee member) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
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Description
Nicotine addiction remains a prevalent public health issue, and the FDA has released a statement outlining the systematic reduction of nicotine to non-zero levels in the coming years. Current research has not yet established the effects of abrupt nicotine dose reduction on vulnerability to relapse, nor has abrupt nicotine dose

Nicotine addiction remains a prevalent public health issue, and the FDA has released a statement outlining the systematic reduction of nicotine to non-zero levels in the coming years. Current research has not yet established the effects of abrupt nicotine dose reduction on vulnerability to relapse, nor has abrupt nicotine dose reduction been evaluated in terms of behavioral economic characteristics of demand and elasticity been evaluated for reduced doses of nicotine. Using a rat model, we first evaluated the comparability of between- and within-session protocols for establishing characteristics of demand and elasticity for nicotine to shorten experimental timelines for this study and future studies. We then tested environmental enrichment and sex as factors of elasticity of demand for nicotine. Using a rat model of relapse to cues, we also examined the effects of nicotine dose-reduction on vulnerability to relapse. We found differences in maximum consumption and demand between the between- and within-session protocols, as well as sex differences in elasticity of demand on the within-session protocol where male demand was more elastic than female demand. Additionally, we found that enrichment significantly increased elasticity of demand for nicotine for both males and females. Finally, preliminary analyses revealed that nicotine dose reduction yields more inelastic demand and higher maximum consumption, and these outcomes predict increased time to extinction of the association between nicotine and contingent cues, and increased rates of relapse. These studies highlight the usefulness and validity of within-session protocols, and also illustrate the necessity for rigorous testing of forced dose reduction on nicotine vulnerability.
ContributorsCabrera-Brown, Gabriella Paula (Author) / Gipson-Reichardt, Cassandra (Thesis director) / Olive, M. Foster (Committee member) / Davis, Mary (Committee member) / Sanford School of Social and Family Dynamics (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
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Since the emergence of behavioral economics, our understanding of human behavior and decision-making has improved through the widespread use of conducting experiments. In tandem, behavioral and experimental economists seek to merge psychology and emotion into economic thought to better understand the agents that comprise our economic systems. Vernon Smith, a

Since the emergence of behavioral economics, our understanding of human behavior and decision-making has improved through the widespread use of conducting experiments. In tandem, behavioral and experimental economists seek to merge psychology and emotion into economic thought to better understand the agents that comprise our economic systems. Vernon Smith, a Nobel Prize winning experimental economist, wrote an article on how economic agents in asset market experiments create bubbles (commonly referred to as "booms and busts" or "market crashes"). This study builds on Smith's work and seeks to better understand how participants behave when given information about the expected outcome of the experiment, and thus how external information affects an individual's expectations and behavior in financial markets. Upon the completion of the experiments and analyzing the results, 7 of the 14 experiments with the same parameters ended with the outcome consistent with the researcher's hypotheses. These results conclude that providing participants with different contextual information regarding outcome hypotheses affected their expectations, price speculations, and strategy development when approaching an asset market.
ContributorsLabansat, Derek (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
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The field of behavioral economics explores the ways in which individuals make choices under uncertainty, in part, by examining the role that risk attitudes play in a person’s efforts to maximize their own utility. This thesis aims to contribute to the body of economic literature regarding risk attitudes by first

The field of behavioral economics explores the ways in which individuals make choices under uncertainty, in part, by examining the role that risk attitudes play in a person’s efforts to maximize their own utility. This thesis aims to contribute to the body of economic literature regarding risk attitudes by first evaluating the traditional economic method for discerning risk coefficients by examining whether students provide reasonable answers to lottery questions. Second, the answers of reasonable respondents are subject to our economic model using the CRRA utility function in which Python code is used to make predictions of the risk coefficients of respondents via a two-step regression procedure. Lastly, the degree to which the economic model provides a good fit for the lottery answers given by reasonable respondents is discerned. The most notable findings of the study are as follows. College students had extreme difficulty in understanding lottery questions of this sort, with Medical and Life Science majors struggling significantly more than both Business and Engineering majors. Additionally, gender was correlated with estimated risk coefficients, with females being more risk-loving relative to males. Lastly, in regards to the model’s goodness of fit when evaluating potential losses, the expected utility model involving choice under uncertainty was consistent with the behavior of progressives and moderates but inconsistent with the behavior of conservatives.

ContributorsSansone, Morgan Marie (Author) / Leiva Bertran, Fernando (Thesis director) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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This paper analyzes responses to a survey using a modified fourfold pattern of preference to determine if implicit information, once made explicit, is practically significant in nudging irrational decision makers towards more rational decisions. Respondents chose between two scenarios and an option for indifference for each of the four questions

This paper analyzes responses to a survey using a modified fourfold pattern of preference to determine if implicit information, once made explicit, is practically significant in nudging irrational decision makers towards more rational decisions. Respondents chose between two scenarios and an option for indifference for each of the four questions from the fourfold pattern with expected value being implicit information. Then respondents were asked familiarity with expected value and given the same four questions again but with the expected value for each scenario then explicitly given. Respondents were asked to give feedback if their answers had changed and if the addition of the explicit information was the reason for that change. Results found the addition of the explicit information in the form of expected value to be practically significant with ~90% of respondents who changed their answers giving that for the reason. In the implicit section of the survey, three out of four of the questions had a response majority of lower expected value answers given compared to the alternative. In the explicit section of the survey, all four questions achieved a response majority of higher expected value answers given compared to the alternative. In moving from the implicit to the explicit section, for each question, the scenario with lower expected value experienced a decrease in percentage of responses, and the scenario with higher expected value and indifference between the scenarios both experienced an increase in percentage of responses.
ContributorsJohnson, Matthew (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Foster, William (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
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Description
Demand for specialty coffee worldwide is increasing, yet producers primarily located in developing countries struggle to cover their production costs and sustain their livelihood. Coffee producers are globally seeking higher profits by adapting their conventional production practices to be more socially and environmentally responsible. This dissertation aims to analyze the

Demand for specialty coffee worldwide is increasing, yet producers primarily located in developing countries struggle to cover their production costs and sustain their livelihood. Coffee producers are globally seeking higher profits by adapting their conventional production practices to be more socially and environmentally responsible. This dissertation aims to analyze the U.S. import demand for coffee and investigate consumer preferences and willingness to pay for coffee labels representing sustainability efforts. Chapter one introduces the coffee industry and the three chapters of this research. In the second chapter, I analyze the influence of consumers' values and the warm glow effect of giving on their willingness to pay for sustainable coffee using a non-hypothetical auction mechanism. I use an information treatment to test the effect of information on consumers' willingness to pay. Providing information increases the premium consumers are willing to pay for sustainable coffee. Regarding values, consumers that like coffee and experience the warm glow of giving are willing to pay a premium for coffee with a sustainability label. Using a hypothetical online choice experiment, in the third chapter, I investigate coffee consumers' preferences and willingness to pay for Fair Trade, Direct Trade, Rainforest Alliance and USDA Organic coffee. I find that consumers value sustainability labels that aim to solve social issues more than those whose primary goal is to solve environmental problems. I find that when two labels are together on a coffee bag, there is no effect on consumers’ utility. However, there is a positive effect on consumers' willingness to pay for coffee labeled simultaneously for Fair Trade and Organic, and simultaneously for Direct Trade and Organic. In the fourth chapter, I estimate coffee price elasticities between major coffee exporters to the U.S. and calculate pass-through import cost using a system-wide differential demand system. I compare imports of arabica and robusta green coffee and estimate the degree to which they complement each other or substitute one another. I find that arabica and robusta from Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are substitutes but some exceptions show a complementary relationship. The inclusion of the exchange rate into the demand system has a significant effect on U.S. coffee demand. I find an incomplete pass-through cost of the exchange rate to U.S. import prices. Chapter six concludes by summarizing the results of this dissertation and discussing the future challenges for the coffee industry.
ContributorsFuller, Katherine (Author) / Grebitus, Carola (Thesis advisor) / Schmitz, Troy (Committee member) / Hughner, Renee (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022