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- All Subjects: Conflict
- Creators: Wright, Thorin
Description
The purpose of this honors thesis is to explain the varying levels of sexual violence against women across time, location and conflicts. Violence against civilians is utilized as an independent variable to measure if the level of violence of a pre-conflict environment widens the space for the exploitation of sexual violence. Women's status is used as an additional independent variable in order to measure if a pre-conflict environment that promotes gender equality moderates the presence of sexual violence as it discourages unequal power dynamics. GDP per capita and population will be used as control variables in order to include consideration of state capacity. Sexual violence will be the dependent variable. In order to statistically measure and depict the relationships between these variables, bivariate correlations and multivariate linear regressions will be utilized. The bivariate correlations showed that as civilian violence increased, sexual violence increased as well, but as women's status increased, sexual violence decreased. The linear regression models found that state actors and rebel groups yielded differing results. For state actors, the increase in women's status failed to moderate the level of sexual violence as an increase in civilian violence and women's status resulted in an increase in sexual violence. However, for rebel groups, an increase in civilian violence and women's status led to a decrease in sexual violence, thereby depicting women's status as a moderating factor. This creates a problem in identifying one or a few factors that predominately lead to an increase in sexual violence; such identification is key for the development of preventative policy.
ContributorsWinans, Sierra Brooke (Author) / Wright, Thorin (Thesis director) / Wood, Reed (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
Speculation regarding interstate conflict is of great concern to many, if not, all people. As such, forecasting interstate conflict has been an interest to experts, scholars, government officials, and concerned citizens. Presently, there are two approaches to the problem of conflict forecasting with divergent results. The first tends to use a bird’s eye view with big data to forecast actions while missing the intimate details of the groups it is studying. The other opts for more grounded details of cultural meaning and interpretation, yet struggles in the realm of practical application for forecasting. While outlining issues with both approaches, an important question surfaced: are actions causing interpretations and/or are the interpretations driving actions? In response, the Theory of Narrative Conflict (TNC) is proposed to begin answering these questions. To properly address the complexity of forecasting and of culture, TNC draws from a number of different sources, including narrative theory, systems theory, nationalism, and the expression of these in strategic communication.
As a case study, this dissertation examines positions of both the U.S. and China in the South and East China Seas over five years. Methodologically, this dissertation demonstrates the benefit of content analysis to identify local narratives and both stabilizing and destabilizing events contained in thousands of news articles over a five-year period. Additionally, the use of time series and a Markov analysis both demonstrate usefulness in forecasting. Theoretically, TNC displays the usefulness of narrative theory to forecast both actions driven by narrative and common interpretations after events.
Practically, this dissertation demonstrates that current efforts in the U.S. and China have not resulted in an increased understanding of the other country. Neither media giant demonstrates the capacity to be critical of their own national identity and preferred interpretation of world affairs. In short, the battle for the hearts and minds of foreign persons should be challenged.
As a case study, this dissertation examines positions of both the U.S. and China in the South and East China Seas over five years. Methodologically, this dissertation demonstrates the benefit of content analysis to identify local narratives and both stabilizing and destabilizing events contained in thousands of news articles over a five-year period. Additionally, the use of time series and a Markov analysis both demonstrate usefulness in forecasting. Theoretically, TNC displays the usefulness of narrative theory to forecast both actions driven by narrative and common interpretations after events.
Practically, this dissertation demonstrates that current efforts in the U.S. and China have not resulted in an increased understanding of the other country. Neither media giant demonstrates the capacity to be critical of their own national identity and preferred interpretation of world affairs. In short, the battle for the hearts and minds of foreign persons should be challenged.
ContributorsNolen, Matthew Scott (Author) / Corman, Steven R. (Thesis advisor) / Adame, Bradley (Committee member) / Simon, Denis (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Numerous scholars have studied the experiences of women in zones of conflict, often with a focus on women as victims or as the makers of peace. One element that has been largely understudied is leadership—specifically, the gender dynamics of leadership during times of violence. I theorize that gender socializations are emphasized when the state faces conflict, extending gender role perceptions to the political realm. I hypothesize that heightened violence causes fewer women to run for political office while causing equal or greater numbers of men to run. Using a case-study analysis of Afghanistan and Pakistan, I analyze the percent of candidates in each administrative area that are female in relation to the number of overall and civilian deaths in the province. The results show some support for my hypothesis, suggesting that civilian deaths have a negative impact on female candidacy. The results also show that levels of violence do not generally lessen the overall number of candidates, demonstrating that men run at similar or heightened rates during times of conflict. These findings show the need for further research on the relationship between violence and candidacy, specifically as it impacts female candidates. This research has important implications for democratic systems in nations with ongoing violence, as it demonstrates the possible need for additional measures to ensure equal political participation.
ContributorsStratton, Victoria (Author) / Wright, Thorin (Thesis advisor) / Hinojosa, Magda (Committee member) / Kittilson, Miki (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021