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- All Subjects: Behavioral Finance
- Creators: Budolfson, Arthur
Description
This paper investigates whether measures of investor sentiment can be used to predict future total returns of the S&P 500 index. Rolling regressions and other statistical techniques are used to determine which indicators contain the most predictive information and which time horizons' returns are "easiest" to predict in a three year data set. The five "most predictive" indicators are used to predict 180 calendar day future returns of the market and simulated investment of hypothetical accounts is conducted in an independent six year data set based on the rolling regression future return predictions. Some indicators, most notably the VIX index, appear to contain predictive information which led to out-performance of the accounts that invested based on the rolling regression model's predictions.
ContributorsDundas, Matthew William (Author) / Boggess, May (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Hedegaard, Esben (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
Every year, major companies buy Super Bowl advertisements (‘ads’) to fuel growth through the creation of brand awareness among a large, diverse audience. Although measuring the effectiveness of these marketing tactics is difficult, evaluating the abnormal returns (‘alpha’) of company stocks in the five days following the Super Bowl is effective because it provides insight into how actual returns compare to expected returns (calculated using data from the preceding 250 days). Analysis of a comprehensive sample, which includes all Super Bowl ads for public companies between the years 2015 and 2019, accurately demonstrates the relationship between these returns, illustrating the effectiveness of this type of marketing. To account for variation resulting from different inputs in different financial models, it is important to evaluate alpha based on several, reputable models of expected return to best capture the result. In this study, alpha will be analyzed using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (‘CAPM’) and the Fama and French 3 and 5 factor models. Although the ideology that increased marketing improves stock returns through brand awareness suggests a positive alpha, these models all indicate a statistically significant negative alpha for large, public companies who bought Super Bowl ads over the past five years. Therefore, actual returns, on average, are lower than projected returns for the evaluated five-day window following the Super Bowl. In examining alpha and statistical significance according to these financial models, this thesis will explore different market factors that may explain this counterintuitive result, primarily focusing on the investors’ opinions about this type of marketing. Therefore, in researching various discrepancies contributing to the negative alpha result, this study will accurately assess the effectiveness of Super Bowl advertising in terms of stock performance.
ContributorsWynne, Shannon Elizabeth (Author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Smith, Geoffrey (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-12
Description
The classification of financially at-risk is an expansive term that fits the personal profile of most individuals when it comes to the conditioning of their attitude toward money management, particularly in the planning and investment of that money for the achievement of long-term goals. In the case of this thesis, we focus primarily on those who have made a career in professional athletics and entertainment. The behavioral finance tendencies of these two industry professions are widely regarded as insufficient and often damaging the to the longevity of achieved financial security. This ideology stems primarily from an environment where individuals enjoy rapid wealth accumulation in a highly competitive and constantly transitioning role within their respective crafts. The subjectively common behavioral shortcomings of these world-class athletes and performers and uncertain day-to-day security of the professions which these at-risk individuals possess make for highly unfavorable circumstances when striving to achieve a lifetime of income and a secure retirement. In examining individuals of these classes who have faced grave financial hardship, this thesis will serve as a basis for identifying measures to recondition problematic behavioral tendencies that ultimately cause disengagement from a prudent financial plan. Therefore, this thesis will also serve as a framework to determine what investment strategies will complement the behavioral modifications financial planners strive to instill in these individuals, so that professional athletes, celebrities, and financially at-risk professionals alike may achieve higher probability of creating financial freedom through the engaged execution of a goals-based financial plan.
ContributorsKeller, Charles Phillip (Author) / Licon, Wendell (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05