Matching Items (4)
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- All Subjects: Climate
- Creators: Georgescu, Matei
- Creators: Angilletta, Michael J
Description
The Great Plains region of the central United States and southern Canada is a promising location for wind energy resource development. Wind energy site assessments and forecasts can benefit from better understanding the variability that may result from several teleconnections affecting North America. This thesis investigates how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA) impact mean monthly wind speeds at 850 hPa over the Great Plains. Using wind speeds from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis 1, correlations were computed between the mean monthly wind speeds and average monthly teleconnection index values. A difference of means test was used to compute the change in wind speeds between the positive and negative phases of each index. ENSO was not found to have a significant impact on wind speeds, while the NAO and PNA patterns weakly affected wind speeds. The NAO index was positively (negatively) correlated with wind speeds over the northern (southern) plains, while the PNA index was negatively correlated with wind speeds over most of the plains. Even a small change in wind speed can have a large effect on the potential power output, so the effects of these teleconnections should be considered in wind resource assessments and climatologies.
ContributorsOrdonez, Ana Cristina (Author) / Cerveny, Randall (Thesis director) / Svoma, Bohumil (Committee member) / Balling, Robert (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Urban areas produce an urban heat island (UHI), which is manifest as warmer temperatures compared to the surrounding and less developed areas. While it is understood that UHI's are warmer than their surrounding areas, attributing the amount of heat added by the urban area is not easily determined. Current generation modeling systems require diurnal anthropogenic heating profiles. Development of diurnal cycle profiles of anthropogenic heating will help the modeling community as there is currently no database for anthropogenic heating profiles for cities across the United States. With more accurate anthropogenic heating profiles, climate models will be better able to show how humans directly impact the urban climate. This research attempts to create anthropogenic heating profiles for 61 cities in the United States. The method used climate, electricity, natural gas, and transportation data to develop anthropogenic heating profiles for each state. To develop anthropogenic heating profiles, profiles are developed for buildings, transportation, and human metabolism using the most recently available data. Since utilities are reluctant to release data, the building energy profile is developed using statewide electricity by creating a linear regression between the climate and electricity usage. A similar method is used to determine the contribution of natural gas consumption. These profiles are developed for each month of the year, so annual changes in anthropogenic heating can be seen. These profiles can then be put into climate models to enable more accurate urban climate modeling.
ContributorsMilne, Jeffrey (Author) / Georgescu, Matei (Thesis director) / Sailor, David (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Urbanization, a direct consequence of land use and land cover change, is responsible for significant modification of local to regional scale climates. It is projected that the greatest urban growth of this century will occur in urban areas in the developing world. In addition, there is a significant research gap in emerging nations concerning this topic. Thus, this research focuses on the assessment of climate impacts related to urbanization on the largest metropolitan area in Latin America: Mexico City.
Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate.
Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate.
ContributorsBenson-Lira, Valeria (Author) / Georgescu, Matei (Thesis advisor) / Brazel, Anthony (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The global spread of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, a competent disease vector, is occurring at an alarming pace. These invasive mosquitos have spread to latitudes once thought inaccessible due to thermal and hydric limitations, including Maricopa County, AZ, where strong increases in population size has occurred over the last decade. The Aedes aegypti in Maricopa County follow a highly seasonal pattern with populations all but disappearing each winter, only to return and build exponentially though the summer and fall. Maricopa County’s winters are relatively mild, which raises the question of whether further global climate change will warm conditions enough to create a broadened seasonal breeding period, or worse yet, year-round mosquito activity within desert southwest cities. This dissertation focuses on exploring the possible seasonal constraints on the egg, larva, and adult life stages of the Aedes aegypti mosquito within a suburban desert ecosystem. I explored whether climatic warming would raise temperatures enough to enable survival and development of these animals during the winter offseason. I determined that larval growth and adult flight are constrained by ambient winter temperatures in Maricopa County, explaining the currently observed winter crash in populations. However, warming by only a few degrees Centigrade could enable successful larval growth and development, as well as adult flight, even during the coldest desert months. I found that load and temperature interact to determine the flight cost of mosquitos, which can very up to six-fold, with higher temperatures likely increasing their flight performance but decreasing their distance capacities and increasing their need for fuel.
Aedes aegypti likely primarily overwinters as eggs. However, I showed that the vast majority of Aedes aegypti eggs die overwinter in Maricopa County. By manipulating humidity in eggs exposed to ambient air temperatures, I showed that desiccation, not cold temperatures, is the limiting factor in long-term survival of Aedes aegypti eggs. Together, my data suggests that humid, urban microhabitats may be essential for enabling overwinter egg survival in Maricopa County, providing a potential important pathway toward control of this disease vector.
ContributorsFox, Trevor (Author) / Harrison, Jon F (Thesis advisor) / Angilletta, Michael J (Committee member) / Benoit, Joshua B (Committee member) / Smith, Kirk (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021