Matching Items (11)
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- All Subjects: Operations Research
- Creators: Gel, Esma
Description
Temporal data are increasingly prevalent and important in analytics. Time series (TS) data are chronological sequences of observations and an important class of temporal data. Fields such as medicine, finance, learning science and multimedia naturally generate TS data. Each series provide a high-dimensional data vector that challenges the learning of the relevant patterns This dissertation proposes TS representations and methods for supervised TS analysis. The approaches combine new representations that handle translations and dilations of patterns with bag-of-features strategies and tree-based ensemble learning. This provides flexibility in handling time-warped patterns in a computationally efficient way. The ensemble learners provide a classification framework that can handle high-dimensional feature spaces, multiple classes and interaction between features. The proposed representations are useful for classification and interpretation of the TS data of varying complexity. The first contribution handles the problem of time warping with a feature-based approach. An interval selection and local feature extraction strategy is proposed to learn a bag-of-features representation. This is distinctly different from common similarity-based time warping. This allows for additional features (such as pattern location) to be easily integrated into the models. The learners have the capability to account for the temporal information through the recursive partitioning method. The second contribution focuses on the comprehensibility of the models. A new representation is integrated with local feature importance measures from tree-based ensembles, to diagnose and interpret time intervals that are important to the model. Multivariate time series (MTS) are especially challenging because the input consists of a collection of TS and both features within TS and interactions between TS can be important to models. Another contribution uses a different representation to produce computationally efficient strategies that learn a symbolic representation for MTS. Relationships between the multiple TS, nominal and missing values are handled with tree-based learners. Applications such as speech recognition, medical diagnosis and gesture recognition are used to illustrate the methods. Experimental results show that the TS representations and methods provide better results than competitive methods on a comprehensive collection of benchmark datasets. Moreover, the proposed approaches naturally provide solutions to similarity analysis, predictive pattern discovery and feature selection.
ContributorsBaydogan, Mustafa Gokce (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Atkinson, Robert (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Every year, more than 11 million maritime containers and 11 million commercial trucks arrive to the United States, carrying all types of imported goods. As it would be costly to inspect every container, only a fraction of them are inspected before being allowed to proceed into the United States. This dissertation proposes a decision support system that aims to allocate the scarce inspection resources at a land POE (L-POE), to minimize the different costs associated with the inspection process, including those associated with delaying the entry of legitimate imports. Given the ubiquity of sensors in all aspects of the supply chain, it is necessary to have automated decision systems that incorporate the information provided by these sensors and other possible channels into the inspection planning process. The inspection planning system proposed in this dissertation decomposes the inspection effort allocation process into two phases: Primary and detailed inspection planning. The former helps decide what to inspect, and the latter how to conduct the inspections. A multi-objective optimization (MOO) model is developed for primary inspection planning. This model tries to balance the costs of conducting inspections, direct and expected, and the waiting time of the trucks. The resulting model is exploited in two different ways: One is to construct a complete or a partial efficient frontier for the MOO model with diversity of Pareto-optimal solutions maximized; the other is to evaluate a given inspection plan and provide possible suggestions for improvement. The methodologies are described in detail and case studies provided. The case studies show that this MOO based primary planning model can effectively pick out the non-conforming trucks to inspect, while balancing the costs and waiting time.
ContributorsXue, Liangjie (Author) / Villalobos, Jesus René (Thesis advisor) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Maltz, Arnold (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Most staff planning for airline industries are done using point estimates; these do not account for the probabilistic nature of employees not showing up to work, and the airline company risks being under or overstaffed at different times, which increases costs and deteriorates customer service. This model proposes utilizing a stochastic method for American Airlines to schedule their ground crew staff. We developed a stochastic model for scheduling that incorporates the risks of absent employees and as well as reliability so that stakeholders can determine the level of reliability they want to maintain in their system based on the costs. We also incorporated a preferences component to the model in order to increase staff satisfaction in the schedules they get assigned based on their predetermined preferences. Since this is a general staffing model, this can be utilized for an airline crew or virtually any other workforce so long as certain parameters about the population can be determined.
ContributorsOtis, Matthew (Co-author) / Reyes, Katherine (Co-author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis director) / Jacobs, Tim (Committee member) / Clough, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
In recent years, Operations Research (OR) has had a signicant impact on improving the performance of hospital Emergency Departments (EDs). This includes improving a wide range of processes involving patient ow from the initial call to the ED through disposition, discharge home, or admission to the hospital. We mainly seek to illustrate the benet of OR in EDs, and provide an overview of research performed in this vein to assist both researchers and practitioners. We also elaborate on possibilities for future researchers by shedding light on some less studied aspects that can have valuable impacts on practice.
ContributorsAustin, Garrett Alexander (Author) / Saghafian, Soroush (Thesis director) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Traub, Stephen (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
The efficient refurbishment of rotable parts on an aircraft proves to be a main concern for airline carriers today. Airlines must be able to seamlessly rotate parts into and out of the system for maintenance in accordance with FAA requirements while leaving daily operations uninterrupted. In this paper, we develop an airline maintenance scheduling model that constructs an optimal schedule for part maintenance over a given time horizon using deterministic forecasting techniques. The model generates a schedule that minimizes the total cost of a maintenance schedule solution while maximizing the utility of all parts in the system. The model is then tested against actual network data of three part types crucial to airline operations and used to investigate the current data collection processes of US Airways maintenance lead time metrics. Manual sensitivity analysis is performed to generate the marginal value of each parameter and potential model extensions are highlighted as a result of these conclusions.
ContributorsDunham, Nicole Elizabeth (Author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis director) / Jacobs, Timothy (Committee member) / Clough, Michael (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
This dissertation addresses access management problems that occur in both emergency and outpatient clinics with the objective of allocating the available resources to improve performance measures by considering the trade-offs. Two main settings are considered for estimating patient willingness-to-wait (WtW) behavior for outpatient appointments with statistical analyses of data: allocation of the limited booking horizon to patients of different priorities by using time windows in an outpatient setting considering patient behavior, and allocation of hospital beds to admitted Emergency Department (ED) patients. For each chapter, a different approach based on the problem context is developed and the performance is analyzed by implementing analytical and simulation models. Real hospital data is used in the analyses to provide evidence that the methodologies introduced are beneficial in addressing real life problems, and real improvements can be achievable by using the policies that are suggested.
This dissertation starts with studying an outpatient clinic context to develop an effective resource allocation mechanism that can improve patient access to clinic appointments. I first start with identifying patient behavior in terms of willingness-to-wait to an outpatient appointment. Two statistical models are developed to estimate patient WtW distribution by using data on booked appointments and appointment requests. Several analyses are conducted on simulated data to observe effectiveness and accuracy of the estimations.
Then, this dissertation introduces a time windows based policy that utilizes patient behavior to improve access by using appointment delay as a lever. The policy improves patient access by allocating the available capacity to the patients from different priorities by dividing the booking horizon into time intervals that can be used by each priority group which strategically delay lower priority patients.
Finally, the patient routing between ED and inpatient units to improve the patient access to hospital beds is studied. The strategy that captures the trade-off between patient safety and quality of care is characterized as a threshold type. Through the simulation experiments developed by real data collected from a hospital, the achievable improvement of implementing such a strategy that considers the safety-quality of care trade-off is illustrated.
This dissertation starts with studying an outpatient clinic context to develop an effective resource allocation mechanism that can improve patient access to clinic appointments. I first start with identifying patient behavior in terms of willingness-to-wait to an outpatient appointment. Two statistical models are developed to estimate patient WtW distribution by using data on booked appointments and appointment requests. Several analyses are conducted on simulated data to observe effectiveness and accuracy of the estimations.
Then, this dissertation introduces a time windows based policy that utilizes patient behavior to improve access by using appointment delay as a lever. The policy improves patient access by allocating the available capacity to the patients from different priorities by dividing the booking horizon into time intervals that can be used by each priority group which strategically delay lower priority patients.
Finally, the patient routing between ED and inpatient units to improve the patient access to hospital beds is studied. The strategy that captures the trade-off between patient safety and quality of care is characterized as a threshold type. Through the simulation experiments developed by real data collected from a hospital, the achievable improvement of implementing such a strategy that considers the safety-quality of care trade-off is illustrated.
ContributorsKilinc, Derya (Author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis advisor) / Pasupathy, Kalyan (Committee member) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Sir, Mustafa (Committee member) / Yan, Hao (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Breeding seeds to include desirable traits (increased yield, drought/temperature resistance, etc.) is a growing and important method of establishing food security. However, besides breeder intuition, few decision-making tools exist that can provide the breeders with credible evidence to make decisions on which seeds to progress to further stages of development. This thesis attempts to create a chance-constrained knapsack optimization model, which the breeder can use to make better decisions about seed progression and help reduce the levels of risk in their selections. The model’s objective is to select seed varieties out of a larger pool of varieties and maximize the average yield of the “knapsack” based on meeting some risk criteria. Two models are created for different cases. First is the risk reduction model which seeks to reduce the risk of getting a bad yield but still maximize the total yield. The second model considers the possibility of adverse environmental effects and seeks to mitigate the negative effects it could have on the total yield. In practice, breeders can use these models to better quantify uncertainty in selecting seed varieties
ContributorsOzcan, Ozkan Meric (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Gel, Esma (Thesis advisor) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Revenue management is at the core of airline operations today; proprietary algorithms and heuristics are used to determine prices and availability of tickets on an almost-continuous basis. While initial developments in revenue management were motivated by industry practice, later developments overcoming fundamental omissions from earlier models show significant improvement, despite their focus on relatively esoteric aspects of the problem, and have limited potential for practical use due to computational requirements. This dissertation attempts to address various modeling and computational issues, introducing realistic choice-based demand revenue management models. In particular, this work introduces two optimization formulations alongside a choice-based demand modeling framework, improving on the methods that choice-based revenue management literature has created to date, by providing sensible models for airline implementation.
The first model offers an alternative formulation to the traditional choice-based revenue management problem presented in the literature, and provides substantial gains in expected revenue while limiting the problem’s computational complexity. Making assumptions on passenger demand, the Choice-based Mixed Integer Program (CMIP) provides a significantly more compact formulation when compared to other choice-based revenue management models, and consistently outperforms previous models.
Despite the prevalence of choice-based revenue management models in literature, the assumptions made on purchasing behavior inhibit researchers to create models that properly reflect passenger sensitivities to various ticket attributes, such as price, number of stops, and flexibility options. This dissertation introduces a general framework for airline choice-based demand modeling that takes into account various ticket attributes in addition to price, providing a framework for revenue management models to relate airline companies’ product design strategies to the practice of revenue management through decisions on ticket availability and price.
Finally, this dissertation introduces a mixed integer non-linear programming formulation for airline revenue management that accommodates the possibility of simultaneously setting prices and availabilities on a network. Traditional revenue management models primarily focus on availability, only, forcing secondary models to optimize prices. The Price-dynamic Choice-based Mixed Integer Program (PCMIP) eliminates this two-step process, aligning passenger purchase behavior with revenue management policies, and is shown to outperform previously developed models, providing a new frontier of research in airline revenue management.
The first model offers an alternative formulation to the traditional choice-based revenue management problem presented in the literature, and provides substantial gains in expected revenue while limiting the problem’s computational complexity. Making assumptions on passenger demand, the Choice-based Mixed Integer Program (CMIP) provides a significantly more compact formulation when compared to other choice-based revenue management models, and consistently outperforms previous models.
Despite the prevalence of choice-based revenue management models in literature, the assumptions made on purchasing behavior inhibit researchers to create models that properly reflect passenger sensitivities to various ticket attributes, such as price, number of stops, and flexibility options. This dissertation introduces a general framework for airline choice-based demand modeling that takes into account various ticket attributes in addition to price, providing a framework for revenue management models to relate airline companies’ product design strategies to the practice of revenue management through decisions on ticket availability and price.
Finally, this dissertation introduces a mixed integer non-linear programming formulation for airline revenue management that accommodates the possibility of simultaneously setting prices and availabilities on a network. Traditional revenue management models primarily focus on availability, only, forcing secondary models to optimize prices. The Price-dynamic Choice-based Mixed Integer Program (PCMIP) eliminates this two-step process, aligning passenger purchase behavior with revenue management policies, and is shown to outperform previously developed models, providing a new frontier of research in airline revenue management.
ContributorsClough, Michael C (Author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis advisor) / Jacobs, Timothy (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald (Committee member) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Vehicles powered by electricity and alternative-fuels are becoming a more popular form of transportation since they have less of an environmental impact than standard gasoline vehicles. Unfortunately, their success is currently inhibited by the sparseness of locations where the vehicles can refuel as well as the fact that many of the vehicles have a range that is less than those powered by gasoline. These factors together create a "range anxiety" in drivers, which causes the drivers to worry about the utility of alternative-fuel and electric vehicles and makes them less likely to purchase these vehicles. For the new vehicle technologies to thrive it is critical that range anxiety is minimized and performance is increased as much as possible through proper routing and scheduling. In the case of long distance trips taken by individual vehicles, the routes must be chosen such that the vehicles take the shortest routes while not running out of fuel on the trip. When many vehicles are to be routed during the day, if the refueling stations have limited capacity then care must be taken to avoid having too many vehicles arrive at the stations at any time. If the vehicles that will need to be routed in the future are unknown then this problem is stochastic. For fleets of vehicles serving scheduled operations, switching to alternative-fuels requires ensuring the schedules do not cause the vehicles to run out of fuel. This is especially problematic since the locations where the vehicles may refuel are limited due to the technology being new. This dissertation covers three related optimization problems: routing a single electric or alternative-fuel vehicle on a long distance trip, routing many electric vehicles in a network where the stations have limited capacity and the arrivals into the system are stochastic, and scheduling fleets of electric or alternative-fuel vehicles with limited locations to refuel. Different algorithms are proposed to solve each of the three problems, of which some are exact and some are heuristic. The algorithms are tested on both random data and data relating to the State of Arizona.
ContributorsAdler, Jonathan D (Author) / Mirchandani, Pitu B. (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Xue, Guoliang (Committee member) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Project portfolio selection (PPS) is a significant problem faced by most organizations. How to best select the many innovative ideas that a company has developed to deploy in a proper and sustained manner with a balanced allocation of its resources over multiple time periods is one of vital importance to a company's goals. This dissertation details the steps involved in deploying a more intuitive portfolio selection framework that facilitates bringing analysts and management to a consensus on ongoing company efforts and buy into final decisions. A binary integer programming selection model that constructs an efficient frontier allows the evaluation of portfolios on many different criteria and allows decision makers (DM) to bring their experience and insight to the table when making a decision is discussed. A binary fractional integer program provides additional choices by optimizing portfolios on cost-benefit ratios over multiple time periods is also presented. By combining this framework with an `elimination by aspects' model of decision making, DMs evaluate portfolios on various objectives and ensure the selection of a portfolio most in line with their goals. By presenting a modeling framework to easily model a large number of project inter-dependencies and an evolutionary algorithm that is intelligently guided in the search for attractive portfolios by a beam search heuristic, practitioners are given a ready recipe to solve big problem instances to generate attractive project portfolios for their organizations. Finally, this dissertation attempts to address the problem of risk and uncertainty in project portfolio selection. After exploring the selection of portfolios based on trade-offs between a primary benefit and a primary cost, the third important dimension of uncertainty of outcome and the risk a decision maker is willing to take on in their quest to select the best portfolio for their organization is examined.
ContributorsSampath, Siddhartha (Author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, Jown W (Thesis advisor) / Kempf, Karl G. (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018