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Description
Uncertainty quantification is critical for engineering design and analysis. Determining appropriate ways of dealing with uncertainties has been a constant challenge in engineering. Statistical methods provide a powerful aid to describe and understand uncertainties. This work focuses on applying Bayesian methods and machine learning in uncertainty quantification and prognostics among all the statistical methods. This study focuses on the mechanical properties of materials, both static and fatigue, the main engineering field on which this study focuses. This work can be summarized in the following items: First, maintaining the safety of vintage pipelines requires accurately estimating the strength. The objective is to predict the reliability-based strength using nondestructive multimodality surface information. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is implemented for fusing multimodality non-destructive testing results for gas pipeline strength estimation. Several incremental improvements are proposed in the algorithm implementation. Second, the objective is to develop a statistical uncertainty quantification method for fatigue stress-life (S-N) curves with sparse data.Hierarchical Bayesian data augmentation (HBDA) is proposed to integrate hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) and Bayesian data augmentation (BDA) to deal with sparse data problems for fatigue S-N curves. The third objective is to develop a physics-guided machine learning model to overcome limitations in parametric regression models and classical machine learning models for fatigue data analysis. A Probabilistic Physics-guided Neural Network (PPgNN) is proposed for probabilistic fatigue S-N curve estimation. This model is further developed for missing data and arbitrary output distribution problems. Fourth, multi-fidelity modeling combines the advantages of low- and high-fidelity models to achieve a required accuracy at a reasonable computation cost. The fourth objective is to develop a neural network approach for multi-fidelity modeling by learning the correlation between low- and high-fidelity models. Finally, conclusions are drawn, and future work is outlined based on the current study.
ContributorsChen, Jie (Author) / Liu, Yongming (Thesis advisor) / Chattopadhyay, Aditi (Committee member) / Mignolet, Marc (Committee member) / Ren, Yi (Committee member) / Yan, Hao (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
The increasing availability of data and advances in computation have spurred the development of data-driven approaches for modeling complex dynamical systems. These approaches are based on the idea that the underlying structure of a complex system can be discovered from data using mathematical and computational techniques. They also show promise for addressing the challenges of modeling high-dimensional, nonlinear systems with limited data. In this research expository, the state of the art in data-driven approaches for modeling complex dynamical systems is surveyed in a systemic way. First the general formulation of data-driven modeling of dynamical systems is discussed. Then several representative methods in feature engineering and system identification/prediction are reviewed, including recent advances and key challenges.
ContributorsShi, Wenlong (Author) / Ren, Yi (Thesis advisor) / Hong, Qijun (Committee member) / Jiao, Yang (Committee member) / Yang, Yezhou (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Autonomous Driving (AD) systems are being researched and developed actively in recent days to solve the task of controlling the vehicles safely without human intervention. One method to solve such task is through deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach. In deep RL, the main objective is to find an optimal control behavior, often called policy performed by an agent, which is AD system in this case. This policy is usually learned through Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) based on the observations that the agent perceives along with rewards feedback received from environment.However, recent studies demonstrated the vulnerability of such control policies learned through deep RL against adversarial attacks. This raises concerns about the application of such policies to risk-sensitive tasks like AD. Previous adversarial attacks assume that the threats can be broadly realized in two ways: First one is targeted attacks through manipu- lation of the agent’s complete observation in real time and the other is untargeted attacks through manipulation of objects in environment. The former assumes full access to the agent’s observations at almost all time, while the latter has no control over outcomes of attack. This research investigates the feasibility of targeted attacks through physical adver- sarial objects in the environment, a threat that combines the effectiveness and practicality.
Through simulations on one of the popular AD systems, it is demonstrated that a fixed optimal policy can be malfunctioned over time by an attacker e.g., performing an unintended self-parking, when an adversarial object is present. The proposed approach is formulated in such a way that the attacker can learn a dynamics of the environment and also utilizes common knowledge of agent’s dynamics to realize the attack. Further, several experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness of the proposed attack on different driving scenarios empirically. Lastly, this work also studies robustness of object location, and trade-off between the attack strength and attack length based on proposed evaluation metrics.
ContributorsBuddareddygari, Prasanth (Author) / Yang, Yezhou (Thesis advisor) / Ren, Yi (Committee member) / Fainekos, Georgios (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021