Matching Items (3)
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- All Subjects: Probability
- All Subjects: Primary Health Care
- Creators: Foster, William
Description
This paper analyzes responses to a survey using a modified fourfold pattern of preference to determine if implicit information, once made explicit, is practically significant in nudging irrational decision makers towards more rational decisions. Respondents chose between two scenarios and an option for indifference for each of the four questions from the fourfold pattern with expected value being implicit information. Then respondents were asked familiarity with expected value and given the same four questions again but with the expected value for each scenario then explicitly given. Respondents were asked to give feedback if their answers had changed and if the addition of the explicit information was the reason for that change. Results found the addition of the explicit information in the form of expected value to be practically significant with ~90% of respondents who changed their answers giving that for the reason. In the implicit section of the survey, three out of four of the questions had a response majority of lower expected value answers given compared to the alternative. In the explicit section of the survey, all four questions achieved a response majority of higher expected value answers given compared to the alternative. In moving from the implicit to the explicit section, for each question, the scenario with lower expected value experienced a decrease in percentage of responses, and the scenario with higher expected value and indifference between the scenarios both experienced an increase in percentage of responses.
ContributorsJohnson, Matthew (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Foster, William (Committee member) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This paper proposes that voter decision making is determined by more than just the policy positions adopted by the candidates in the election as proposed by Antony Downs (1957). Using a vector valued voting model proposed by William Foster (2014), voter behavior can be described by a mathematical model. Voters assign scores to candidates based on both policy and non-policy considerations, then voters then decide which candidate they support based on which has a higher candidate score. The traditional assumption that most of the population will vote is replaced by a function describing the probability of voting based on candidate scores assigned by individual voters. If the voter's likelihood of voting is not certain, but rather modelled by a sigmoid curve, it has radical implications on party decisions and actions taken during an election cycle. The model also includes a significant interaction term between the candidate scores and the differential between the scores which enhances the Downsian model. The thesis is proposed in a similar manner to Downs' original presentation, including several allegorical and hypothetical examples of the model in action. The results of the model reveal that single issue voters can have a significant impact on election outcomes, and that the weight of non-policy considerations is high enough that political parties would spend large sums of money on campaigning. Future research will include creating an experiment to verify the interaction terms, as well as adjusting the model for individual costs so that more empirical analysis may be completed.
ContributorsCoulter, Jarod Maxwell (Author) / Foster, William (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze urgent care centers and explain their role within the U.S. healthcare system. The introduction of urgent care into the market for health care services has brought with it a new way for consumers to receive non-emergent healthcare outside of traditional hours. Urgent care is often cited as a plausible alternative to care received at an emergency department or primary care physician's office. One of the key questions the author attempts to answer is: "To what degree are urgent care centers an economic substitute to emergency departments or physician's offices?" This paper looks at both projected demand from currently operating urgent care centers and consumer preference surveys to estimate the willingness of consumers to use urgent care. The method used to accomplish this task has been compiling scholarly research and data on urgent care centers. After a thorough examination of relevant studies and datasets, urgent care centers have been found to be just as preferred as emergency departments when considering non-emergent cases, specifically among individuals aged 18-44. The clear majority of consumers still prefer visiting a primary care physician over an urgent care center when it comes to episodic care, however. When taking into account wait times, differences in cost, and ease of access, urgent care becomes much more preferred than an emergency department and weakly preferred to a physician's office. There are still some concerns with urgent care, however. Questions of capacity to meet demand, access for underserved communities, and susceptibility to adverse selection have yet to be fully explored.
ContributorsBullington, Robert Heyburn (Author) / Foster, William (Thesis director) / Hill, John (Committee member) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05