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Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The North American Monsoon (NAM) is characterized by high inter- and intra-seasonal variability, and potential climate change effects have been forecasted to increase this variability. The potential effects of climate change to the hydrology of the southwestern U.S. is of interest as they could have consequences to water resources, floods, and land management. I applied a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, and soils distribution. As such, it can serve to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Model calibration was performed utilizing radar-based NEXRAD data, and comparisons were done to two additional sources of precipitation data: ground-based stations and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and stream discharge. Utilizing the calibrated model, I applied scenarios from the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) which was dynamically downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to refine the representation of Arizona's regional climate. Two time periods were examined, a historical 1990-2000 and a future 2031-2040, to evaluate the hydrologic consequence in the form of differences and similarities between the decadal averages for temperature, precipitation, stream discharge and evapotranspiration. Results indicate an increase in mean air temperature over the basin by 1.2 ºC. The average decadal precipitation amounts increased between the two time periods by 2.4 times that of the historical period and had an increase in variability that was 3 times the historical period. For the future period, modeled streamflow discharge in the summer increased by a factor of 3. There was no significant change in the average evapotranspiration (ET). Overall trends of increase precipitation and variability for future climate scenarios have a more significant effect on the hydrologic response than temperature increases in the system during NAM in this study basin. The results from this study suggest that water management in the Beaver Creek will need to adapt to higher summer streamflow amounts.
ContributorsHawkins, Gretchen (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R. (Thesis advisor) / Semken, Steven (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The phrase water-energy nexus is commonly used to describe the inherent and critical interdependencies between the electric power system and the water supply systems (WSS). The key interdependencies between the two systems are the power plant’s requirement of water for the cooling cycle and the water system’s need of electricity for pumping for water supply. While previous work has considered the dependency of WSS on the electrical power, this work incorporates into an optimization-simulation framework, consideration of the impact of short and long-term limited availability of water and/or electrical energy.
This research focuses on the water supply system (WSS) facet of the multi-faceted optimization and control mechanism developed for an integrated water – energy nexus system under U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) project 029013-0010 CRISP Type 2 – Resilient cyber-enabled electric energy and water infrastructures modeling and control under extreme mega drought scenarios. A water supply system (WSS) conveys water from sources (such as lakes, rivers, dams etc.) to the treatment plants and then to users via the water distribution systems (WDS) and/or water supply canal systems (WSCS). Optimization-simulation methodologies are developed for the real-time operation of water supply systems (WSS) under critical conditions of limited electrical energy and/or water availability due to emergencies such as extreme drought conditions, electric grid failure, and other severe conditions including natural and manmade disasters. The coupling between WSS and the power system was done through alternatively exchanging data between the power system and WSS simulations via a program control overlay developed in python.
A new methodology for WDS infrastructural-operational resilience (IOR) computation was developed as a part of this research to assess the real-time performance of the WDS under emergency conditions. The methodology combines operational resilience and component level infrastructural robustness to provide a comprehensive performance assessment tool.
The optimization-simulation and resilience computation methodologies developed were tested for both hypothetical and real example WDS and WSCS, with results depicting improved resilience for operations of the WSS under normal and emergency conditions.
This research focuses on the water supply system (WSS) facet of the multi-faceted optimization and control mechanism developed for an integrated water – energy nexus system under U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) project 029013-0010 CRISP Type 2 – Resilient cyber-enabled electric energy and water infrastructures modeling and control under extreme mega drought scenarios. A water supply system (WSS) conveys water from sources (such as lakes, rivers, dams etc.) to the treatment plants and then to users via the water distribution systems (WDS) and/or water supply canal systems (WSCS). Optimization-simulation methodologies are developed for the real-time operation of water supply systems (WSS) under critical conditions of limited electrical energy and/or water availability due to emergencies such as extreme drought conditions, electric grid failure, and other severe conditions including natural and manmade disasters. The coupling between WSS and the power system was done through alternatively exchanging data between the power system and WSS simulations via a program control overlay developed in python.
A new methodology for WDS infrastructural-operational resilience (IOR) computation was developed as a part of this research to assess the real-time performance of the WDS under emergency conditions. The methodology combines operational resilience and component level infrastructural robustness to provide a comprehensive performance assessment tool.
The optimization-simulation and resilience computation methodologies developed were tested for both hypothetical and real example WDS and WSCS, with results depicting improved resilience for operations of the WSS under normal and emergency conditions.
ContributorsKhatavkar, Puneet (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Zhang, Junshan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Imagine you live in a place without any storm water or wastewater systems!
Wastewater and storm water systems are two of the most crucial systems for urban infrastructure. Water resources have become more limited and expensive in arid and semi-arid regions. According to the fourth World Water Development Report, over 80% of global wastewater is released into the environment without adequate treatment. Wastewater collection and treatment systems in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) covers about 49% of urban areas; about 25% of treated wastewater is used for landscape and crop irrigation (Ministry of Environment Water and Agriculture [MEWA], 2017). According to Guizani (2016), during each event of flooding, there are fatalities. In 2009, the most deadly flood occurred in Jeddah, KSA within more than 160 lives lost. As a consequence, KSA has set a goal to provide 100% sewage collection and treatment services to every city with a population above 5000 by 2025, where all treated wastewater will be used.
This research explores several optimization models of planning and designing collection systems, such as regional wastewater and stormwater systems, in order to understand and overcome major performance-related disadvantages and high capital costs. The first model (M-1) was developed for planning regional wastewater system, considering minimum costs of location, type, and size sewer network and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The second model (M-2) was developed for designing a regional wastewater system, considering minimum hydraulic design costs, such as pump stations, commercial diameters, excavation costs, and WWTPs. Both models were applied to the Jizan region, KSA.
The third model (M-3) was developed to solve layout and pipe design for storm water systems simultaneously. This model was applied to four different case scenarios, using two approaches for commercial diameters. The fourth model (M-4) was developed to solve the optimum pipe design of a storm sewer system for given layouts. However, M-4 was applied to a storm sewer network published in the literature.
M-1, M-2, and M-3 were developed in the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) program, which was formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) solver, while M-4 was formulated as a nonlinear programming (NLP) procedure.
Wastewater and storm water systems are two of the most crucial systems for urban infrastructure. Water resources have become more limited and expensive in arid and semi-arid regions. According to the fourth World Water Development Report, over 80% of global wastewater is released into the environment without adequate treatment. Wastewater collection and treatment systems in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) covers about 49% of urban areas; about 25% of treated wastewater is used for landscape and crop irrigation (Ministry of Environment Water and Agriculture [MEWA], 2017). According to Guizani (2016), during each event of flooding, there are fatalities. In 2009, the most deadly flood occurred in Jeddah, KSA within more than 160 lives lost. As a consequence, KSA has set a goal to provide 100% sewage collection and treatment services to every city with a population above 5000 by 2025, where all treated wastewater will be used.
This research explores several optimization models of planning and designing collection systems, such as regional wastewater and stormwater systems, in order to understand and overcome major performance-related disadvantages and high capital costs. The first model (M-1) was developed for planning regional wastewater system, considering minimum costs of location, type, and size sewer network and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The second model (M-2) was developed for designing a regional wastewater system, considering minimum hydraulic design costs, such as pump stations, commercial diameters, excavation costs, and WWTPs. Both models were applied to the Jizan region, KSA.
The third model (M-3) was developed to solve layout and pipe design for storm water systems simultaneously. This model was applied to four different case scenarios, using two approaches for commercial diameters. The fourth model (M-4) was developed to solve the optimum pipe design of a storm sewer system for given layouts. However, M-4 was applied to a storm sewer network published in the literature.
M-1, M-2, and M-3 were developed in the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS) program, which was formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) solver, while M-4 was formulated as a nonlinear programming (NLP) procedure.
ContributorsAlfaisal, Faisal M (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019