Matching Items (2)
Description

We propose a new strategy for blackjack, BB-Player, which leverages Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) in online planning to sample a normalized predicted deck distribution for a partially-informed distance heuristic. Viterbi learning is applied to the most-likely sampled future sequence in each game state to generate transition and emission matrices for

We propose a new strategy for blackjack, BB-Player, which leverages Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) in online planning to sample a normalized predicted deck distribution for a partially-informed distance heuristic. Viterbi learning is applied to the most-likely sampled future sequence in each game state to generate transition and emission matrices for this upcoming sequence. These are then iteratively updated with each observed game on a given deck. Ultimately, this process informs a heuristic to estimate the true symbolic distance left, which allows BB-Player to determine the action with the highest likelihood of winning (by opponent bust or blackjack) and not going bust. We benchmark this strategy against six common card counting strategies from three separate levels of difficulty and a randomized action strategy. On average, BB-Player is observed to beat card-counting strategies in win optimality, attaining a 30.00% expected win percentage, though it falls short of beating state-of-the-art methods.

ContributorsLakamsani, Sreeharsha (Author) / Ren, Yi (Thesis director) / Lee, Heewook (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2023-05
Description
This review explores popular gambling strategies often believed to guarantee wins, such as card counting and taking advantage of arbitrage. We present a mathematical overview of these systems to evaluate their theoretical effectiveness in ideal conditions by presenting prior research and mathematical proofs. This paper then generates results from these

This review explores popular gambling strategies often believed to guarantee wins, such as card counting and taking advantage of arbitrage. We present a mathematical overview of these systems to evaluate their theoretical effectiveness in ideal conditions by presenting prior research and mathematical proofs. This paper then generates results from these models using Monte Carlo simulations and compares them to data from real-world scenarios. Additionally, we examine reasons that might explain the discrepancies between theoretical and real-world results, such as the potential for dealers to detect and counteract card counting. Ultimately, although these strategies may fare well in theoretical scenarios, they struggle to create long-term winning solutions in casino or online gambling settings.
ContributorsBoyilla, Harsha (Author) / Clough, Michael (Thesis director) / Eikenberry, Steffen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2024-05