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Tax Loss Harvesting

Description

This thesis explores the benefits of tax loss harvesting by examining the time period from 1999-2000 to determine the potential profits investors could realize from utilizing this strategy. The first step to accomplishing this was to collect data from the past 20-plus years from the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange Traded…

This thesis explores the benefits of tax loss harvesting by examining the time period from 1999-2000 to determine the potential profits investors could realize from utilizing this strategy. The first step to accomplishing this was to collect data from the past 20-plus years from the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund (SPY) and its 11 sectors: Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Communication Services (XLC), Real Estate (XLRE), Technology (XLK), Utilities (XLU), Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Financials (XLF), and Health Care (XLV). The next step was to clean the data from hundreds of months of opening prices, closing prices, and quarterly dividends into an annual opening price and total annual dividends to calculate a rate of return. Finally, I found the weightings of the S&P 500 and its sectors on January 1st of every year and input this data into a model whose output reflected the growth of a portfolio with and without the use of tax loss harvesting. Once this model was created, I determined the benefits of tax loss harvesting in the present and the value of carrying these losses forward. The outcomes of this thesis solely reflect the benefits of using tax loss harvesting through a passive investment strategy. This research will enrich academic and professional understandings of tax loss harvesting through its clear demonstration of how much tax loss carryforward can be accessed, as well as the opportunity for gains from compounding interest on previous tax savings due to tax loss harvesting.

ContributorsDelgado-McCollum, Stephen (Author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Licon, Wendell (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)

Created2023-05

结合估值因子与宏观因子的股票资产配置研究

Description投资实践中，股债等大类资产配置问题是实务从业者面临的核心问题之一。中国的宏观政策决策缺乏良好运作的预期引导机制，宏观政策往往并不能被市场在博弈中充分预期。从历史实践看，中国经济的宏观周期与政策的逆周期调节经常出现错位，政策滞后与超调现象经常出现。从股票市场的过往历程来看，在2007年之前，中国股市走势与宏观经济波动的关联度不大，那时市场规模还不大，并且市场交易以散户投资者为主，驱动股市涨跌的核心因素是投资者的博弈情绪。而在2007年的一轮牛市之后，中国股市中机构投资者的资金规模逐步扩大，总市值也达到80多万亿元，基本面研究的重要性凸显。然而，以公募基金经理为代表的实践者在相对业绩比较基准的业绩考核体系下，更加关注自下而上的个股选择，相对忽视自上而下的宏观及配置研究。此外，长期以来，股票基金经理与债券基金经理的投资方法体系与关注点不一样。相比之下，海外投资机构在20多年以前已经建立起非常成熟的资产配置体系，而国内这方面的研究与实践在近几年才刚起步。本文通过胜率与赔率的视角，实证研究发现。在可投资股票指数层面，单独的估值与成长信号的平均表现相对于沪深300指数或者中证500指数并不占有明显优势，因此，策略配置的构建需要进行信号遴选与组合。此外，研究还表明，成长因子相对于估值因子在A股指数层面的表现更占优。权益资产指数层面对因子信号的有效性进行分析。研究发现，宏观因子结合估值因子的权益资产配置体系相对于传统的基于资产的配置体系效果更好，前者构建的投资策略可以跑赢中证500指数与沪深300指数，是指数层面实现收益增强的潜在手段，其收益增益主要来源于宏观因子对大类资产相对关系的预测正确率的明显提升。另一方面，估值因子在截面上的因子溢价性价比较高，通过指数产品之间的动态配置转换可以实现部分增强效果。

ContributorsMei, Dongya (Author) / Zhu, David (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Harold (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2022

Research on Optimization of Cyclical Investment Strategy in Chinese Context

Description

With the ongoing development of China's financial market, the investment choices for investors are gradually enriched. Exploring asset allocation for different economic cycle stages can help investors achieve higher returns from the economic cycle rotation, and at the same time, effectively diversify the investment risks and improve the stability of…

With the ongoing development of China's financial market, the investment choices for investors are gradually enriched. Exploring asset allocation for different economic cycle stages can help investors achieve higher returns from the economic cycle rotation, and at the same time, effectively diversify the investment risks and improve the stability of investment returns. In this paper, we systematically sort out a series of studies on asset allocation and economic cycle theory, and build an economic cycle rotation investment strategy applicable to China's economic environment and changes in China's capital market.Based on China's macroeconomic data and investment asset classes, this paper optimizes the division of economic cycle stages, integrates the economic cycle rotation strategy and risk parity strategy, and incorporates liquidity elements to construct an asset allocation strategy. Specific findings are as follows: (1) this paper uses the "slope" and "threshold" of the year-on-year change of industrial value added to divide the economic output stage, which overcomes the drawbacks of relying on economic cycle indicators that cause frequent changes in cycle stages; (2) the investment strategy developed in the paper is able to obtain considerable investment returns, reduces investment risks, and achieves retracement control. ii The findings of this paper enrich and expand the research on economic cycle theory and asset allocation theory to a certain extent, and also provide some inspiration for the practice of asset allocation.

ContributorsZhao, Guomin (Author) / Huang, Xiao-Chuan (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Liang, Bin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2023

比特币在大类资产配置中的作用研究

Description2020年的疫情导致全球多数经济体进行史无前例的货币超发，美国的货币超发水平甚至超过二战时期，货币总量快速上升推升资产价格，比特币成为大类资产中的领跑者，越来越受到市场的关注和重视，作为新生事物，全球监管机构对比特币普遍持谨慎态度，主流金融机构虽然对比特币有所关注，但是研究并不深入。本文通过研究加入比特币的资产配置模型投资效果，以及比特币给投资组合带来的边际变化，全面说明比特币在资产配置中的作用，并以一个常见的基础配置模型为出发点，讨论不同参数取值下，资产配置结果的差异，并从统计学角度总结出收益及风险角度的一般化特征。其次，对比特币的金融特性从宏观因素、自回归趋势、格兰杰因果检验等多个角度进行分析，解析比特币的特性。研究发现，比特币具有高风险高收益特征，且其风险收益比优于其它主流金融主权定价锚资产，加入比特币后，组合的收益增益非常明显。且无论投资者怎么选择起始时间、采取何种方式预测收益及风险，在多长时间范围内进行再平衡，投资组合均有80%以上的概率实现收益提升，且收益提升幅度大于风险提升幅度。从最优投资点推广到一般化的投资有效前沿上，以上结论依然成立，且评估投资有效前沿时，重复随机抽样后，投资组合夏普率提升的概率亦达到71%以上。更进一步，为规避收益预测参数不稳定对投资结果的影响，改进收益预测方式，基于波动率大小压缩预测收益后，预测结果能抵御资产短期扰动带来的影响。最后，笔者从比特币的自相关性、格兰杰因果检验与宏观因素影响角度研究了比特币资产的特性，发现比特币具有极强的价格趋势，且资产配置中，其价格趋势是提升组合夏普率的主要贡献来源。在采用工业增加值（IAV）、M2解释比特币的价格变化时，发现比特币与宏观因子之间的关系并不显著，且比特币与其他资产收益的绝大多数格兰杰因果关系检验结果不显著，这说明比特币价格变化受自身特性的影响更大，但是当剔除比特币的极端收益时，比特币与宏观因素之间的相关关系变得局部显著。本文是典型的实践型论文，具有非常强的实战指导价值，可以为资产配置实践者提供借鉴。

ContributorsYun, Zhijie (Author) / Huang, Xiaochuan (Thesis advisor) / Li, Feng (Thesis advisor) / Zhu, Ning (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2023

黄金在家庭资产配置中影响因素的研究

Description自2018年下半年以来，全球主要经济体复苏动力减弱，全球经济下行风险加大，全球贸易环境趋紧，局部金融风险增大，地缘热点地区的博弈依旧激烈。2020年新型冠状病毒疫情全球蔓延，世界经济复苏遭遇阻力。黄金作为一种古老的货币，其不仅拥有商品属性，还兼具有货币属性和金融属性，其避险功能和保值效果能有效分散家庭资产组合的非系统性风险。本文利用23个全球主要黄金市场国家的面板数据，从黄金资产配置收入效应和替代效应、避险动机、金融市场不确定性、文化差异等角度分析家庭黄金商品配置（黄金饰品）和家庭黄金投资品配置（黄金条块）的影响因素。其次针对中国高净值人群资产配置展开问卷调查，主要关注高净值人群风险偏好、金融素养等因素在家庭资产中配置黄金的影响。本文发现的主要结论是：（1）人均收入水平高的国家，家庭黄金资产配置比例越低，即居民整体收入越高，居民黄金资产配置越低；（2）十年期国债名义年化收益率、国家主要股票指数收益率对家庭黄金资产配置比例不具有显著影响，在通货膨胀率较高的国家，家庭居民会选择消费更多黄金饰品而非购买黄金投资品来提升黄金资产的配置比例；（3）全球金融市场风险较高时，家庭通过购买黄金投资品来配置黄金资产的比例显著提升，即各国居民面对全球金融市场风险时，会选择配置黄金资产来规避风险；（4）受到东亚文化辐射越深入的国家，家庭黄金投资品的配置比例和家庭黄金饰品的配置比例越高；（5）高净值人群风险偏好水平的提升，家庭资产配置黄金的可能性偏高，但是高净值人群黄金配置比例与风险偏好水平无显著相关性；（6）高净值人群金融素养水平的提升，家庭资产配置黄金的可能性偏高，但是高净值人群黄金配置比例与金融素养水平无显著相关性。

ContributorsYang, Hong (Author) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Fei (Thesis advisor) / Hou, Kewei (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)

Created2021