Matching Items (2)
Description
A medical control system, a real-time controller, uses a predictive model of human physiology for estimation and controlling of drug concentration in the human body. Artificial Pancreas (AP) is an example of the control system which regulates blood glucose in T1D patients. The predictive model in the control system such as Bergman Minimal Model (BMM) is based on physiological modeling technique which separates the body into the number of anatomical compartments and each compartment's effect on body system is determined by their physiological parameters. These models are less accurate due to unaccounted physiological factors effecting target values. Estimation of a large number of physiological parameters through optimization algorithm is computationally expensive and stuck in local minima. This work evaluates a machine learning(ML) framework which has an ML model guided through physiological models. A support vector regression model guided through modified BMM is implemented for estimation of blood glucose levels. Physical activity and Endogenous glucose production are key factors that contribute in the increased hypoglycemia events thus, this work modifies Bergman Minimal Model ( Bergman et al. 1981) for more accurate estimation of blood glucose levels. Results show that the SVR outperformed BMM by 0.164 average RMSE for 7 different patients in the free-living scenario. This computationally inexpensive data driven model can potentially learn parameters more accurately with time. In conclusion, advised prediction model is promising in modeling the physiology elements in living systems.
ContributorsAgrawal, Anurag (Author) / Gupta, Sandeep K. S. (Thesis advisor) / Banerjee, Ayan (Committee member) / Kudva, Yogish (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Distributed Renewable energy generators are now contributing a significant amount of energy into the energy grid. Consequently, reliability adequacy of such energy generators will depend on making accurate forecasts of energy produced by them. Power outputs of Solar PV systems depend on the stochastic variation of environmental factors (solar irradiance, ambient temperature & wind speed) and random mechanical failures/repairs. Monte Carlo Simulation which is typically used to model such problems becomes too computationally intensive leading to simplifying state-space assumptions. Multi-state models for power system reliability offer a higher flexibility in providing a description of system state evolution and an accurate representation of probability. In this study, Universal Generating Functions (UGF) were used to solve such combinatorial problems. 8 grid connected Solar PV systems were analyzed with a combined capacity of about 5MW located in a hot-dry climate (Arizona) and accuracy of 98% was achieved when validated with real-time data. An analytics framework is provided to grid operators and utilities to effectively forecast energy produced by distributed energy assets and in turn, develop strategies for effective Demand Response in times of increased share of renewable distributed energy assets in the grid. Second part of this thesis extends the environmental modelling approach to develop an aging test to be run in conjunction with an accelerated test of Solar PV modules. Accelerated Lifetime Testing procedures in the industry are used to determine the dominant failure modes which the product undergoes in the field, as well as predict the lifetime of the product. UV stressor is one of the ten stressors which a PV module undergoes in the field. UV exposure causes browning of modules leading to drop in Short Circuit Current. This thesis presents an environmental modelling approach for the hot-dry climate and extends it to develop an aging test methodology. This along with the accelerated tests would help achieve the goal of correlating field failures with accelerated tests and obtain acceleration factor. This knowledge would help predict PV module degradation in the field within 30% of the actual value and help in knowing the PV module lifetime accurately.
ContributorsKadloor, Nikhil (Author) / Kuitche, Joseph (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017