Matching Items (2)
Description
Accelerated climate and land use land cover (LULC) changes are anticipated to significantly impact water resources in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), a major freshwater source in the southwestern U.S. The need for actionable information from hydrologic research is growing rapidly, given considerable uncertainties. For instance, it is unclear if the predicted high degree of interannual precipitation variability across the basin could overwhelm the impacts of future warming and how this might vary in space. Climate change will also intensify forest disturbances (wildfire, mortality, thinning), which can significantly impact water resources. These impacts are not constrained, given findings of mixed post-disturbance hydrologic responses. Process-based models like the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) platform can quantitatively predict hydrologic behaviors of these complex systems. However, barriers limit their effectiveness to inform decision making: (1) simulations generate enormous data volumes, (2) outputs are inaccessible to managers, and (3) modeling is not transparent. I designed a stakeholder engagement and VIC modeling process to overcome these challenges, and developed a web-based tool, VIC-Explorer, to “open the black box” of my efforts. Meteorological data was from downscaled historical (1950-2005) and future projections (2006-2099) of eight climate models that best represent climatology under low- and high- emissions. I used two modeling methods: (1) a “top-down” approach to assess an “envelope of hydrologic possibility” under the 16 climate futures; and (2) a “bottom-up” evaluation of hydrology in two climates from the ensemble representing “Hot/Dry” and “Warm/Wet” futures. For the latter assessment, I modified land cover using projections of a LULC model and applied more drastic forest disturbances. I consulted water managers to expand the legitimacy of the research. Results showed Far-Future (2066-2095) basin-wide mean annual streamflow decline (relative to 1976-2005; ensemble median trends of -5% to -25%), attributed to warming that diminished spring snowfall and melt and year-round increased soil evaporation from the Upper Basin, and overall precipitation declines in the Lower Basin. Forest disturbances partially offset warming effects (basin-wide mean annual streamflow up to 12% larger than without disturbance). Results are available via VIC-Explorer, which includes documentation and guided analyses to ensure findings are interpreted appropriately for decision-making.
ContributorsWhitney, Kristen Marie (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Whipple, Kelin X (Committee member) / White, Dave D (Committee member) / Xu, Tianfang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
Biological soil crusts (BSCs) dominate the soil surface of drylands in the western United States and possess properties thought to influence local hydrology. Little agreement exists, however, on the effects of BSCs on runoff, infiltration, and evaporative rates. This study aims to improve the predictive capability of an ecohydrology model in order to understand how BSCs affect the storage, retention, and infiltration of water into soils characteristic of the Colorado Plateau. A set of soil moisture measurements obtained at a climate manipulation experiment near Moab, Utah, are used for model development and testing. Over five years, different rainfall treatments over experimental plots resulted in the development of BSC cover with different properties that influence soil moisture differently. This study used numerical simulations to isolate the relative roles of different BSC properties on the hydrologic response at the plot-scale. On-site meteorological, soil texture and vegetation property datasets are utilized as inputs into a ecohydrology model, modified to include local processes: (1) temperature-dependent precipitation partitioning, snow accumulation and melt, (2) seasonally-variable potential evapotranspiration, (3) plant species-specific transpiration factors, and (4) a new module to account for the water balance of the BSC. Soil, BSC and vegetation parameters were determined from field measurements or through model calibration to the soil moisture observations using the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm. Model performance is assessed against five years of soil moisture measurements at each experimental site, representing a wide range of crust cover properties. Simulation experiments were then carried out using the calibrated ecohydrology model in which BSC parameters were varied according to the level of development of the BSC, as represented by the BSC roughness. These results indicate that BSCs act to both buffer against evaporative soil moisture losses by enhancing BSC moisture evaporation and significantly alter the rates of soil water infiltration by reducing moisture storage and increasing conductivity in the BSC. The simulation results for soil water infiltration, storage and retention across a wide range of meteorological events help explain the conflicting hydrologic outcomes present in the literature on BSCs. In addition, identifying how BSCs mediate infiltration and evaporation processes has implications for dryland ecosystem function in the western United States.
ContributorsWhitney, Kristen M (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R (Thesis advisor) / Farmer, Jack D (Committee member) / Garcia-Pichel, Ferran (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015