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- All Subjects: Capital market
- All Subjects: fraud detection
- Creators: Chen, Hong
Description
Using historical data from the third-party payment acquiring industry, I develop a statistical model to predict the probability of fraudulent transactions by the merchants. The model consists of two levels of analysis – the first focuses on fraud detection at the store level, and the second focuses on fraud detection at the merchant level by aggregating store level data to the merchant level for merchants with multiple stores. My purpose is to put the model into business operations, helping to identify fraudulent merchants at the time of transactions and thus mitigate the risk exposure of the payment acquiring businesses. The model developed in this study is distinct from existing fraud detection models in three important aspects. First, it predicts the probability of fraud at the merchant level, as opposed to at the transaction level or by the cardholders. Second, it is developed by applying machine learning algorithms and logistical regressions to all the transaction level and merchant level variables collected from real business operations, rather than relying on the experiences and analytical abilities of business experts as in the development of traditional expert systems. Third, instead of using a small sample, I develop and test the model using a huge sample that consists of over 600,000 merchants and 10 million transactions per month. I conclude this study with a discussion of the model’s possible applications in practice as well as its implications for future research.
ContributorsZhou, Ye (Author) / Chen, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Gu, Bin (Thesis advisor) / Chao, Xiuli (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This study investigates three issues that are relevant for the development of multinational investment banks in China. The first is about the domestic market conditions that are necessary for a country to develop multinational investment banks. The second issue is about the degree to which China has met these conditions. The last issue focuses on the potential strategies Chinese investment banks can undertake to become multinational corporations.
To address the first issue, I draw an important distinction between international investment banks and multinational investment banks. For an international investment bank to be regarded as a multinational, I propose that it must have a strong presence (i.e., holding at least one percent of the market share) in at least two of the seven major capital markets in the world. Using this criterion, I identify 25 multinational investment banks. I then analyze their home countries’ domestic market conditions and propose that the following six factors are important to the development of multinational investment banks: the size of the home country’s gross domestic product (GDP), the total capitalization of its domestic security market, the number of its Global 500 firms, the volume of its foreign direct investment (FDI), the internationalization of its currency, and the openness of its capital market to foreign investors.
By comparisons, I find that China’s domestic market conditions are comparable to the home countries of multinational investment banks with respect to the size of GDP, total market capitalization, the number of Global 500 firms, and the volume of FDI. What China lags behind are the internationalization of currency and the openness of capital market to foreign investors. Given the current trends of development, it is very likely that China will be able to catch up on the latter within ten years, thus meeting all the conditions necessary for the development of multinational investment banks.
Based on the above findings, I suggest that Chinese investment banks seize this historical opportunity, speed up the internationalization of their businesses, and learn from the experiences of global industry leaders to become truly multinational corporations.
To address the first issue, I draw an important distinction between international investment banks and multinational investment banks. For an international investment bank to be regarded as a multinational, I propose that it must have a strong presence (i.e., holding at least one percent of the market share) in at least two of the seven major capital markets in the world. Using this criterion, I identify 25 multinational investment banks. I then analyze their home countries’ domestic market conditions and propose that the following six factors are important to the development of multinational investment banks: the size of the home country’s gross domestic product (GDP), the total capitalization of its domestic security market, the number of its Global 500 firms, the volume of its foreign direct investment (FDI), the internationalization of its currency, and the openness of its capital market to foreign investors.
By comparisons, I find that China’s domestic market conditions are comparable to the home countries of multinational investment banks with respect to the size of GDP, total market capitalization, the number of Global 500 firms, and the volume of FDI. What China lags behind are the internationalization of currency and the openness of capital market to foreign investors. Given the current trends of development, it is very likely that China will be able to catch up on the latter within ten years, thus meeting all the conditions necessary for the development of multinational investment banks.
Based on the above findings, I suggest that Chinese investment banks seize this historical opportunity, speed up the internationalization of their businesses, and learn from the experiences of global industry leaders to become truly multinational corporations.
ContributorsLiu, Xin (Author) / Chang, Chun (Thesis advisor) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Hong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015