Full metadata
Title
Impacts of climate change on US commercial and residential building energy demand
Description
Energy consumption in buildings, accounting for 41% of 2010 primary energy consumption in the United States (US), is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the direct relationship between space heating/cooling and temperature. Past studies have assessed the impact of climate change on long-term mean and/or peak energy demands. However, these studies usually neglected spatial variations in the “balance point” temperature, population distribution effects, air-conditioner (AC) saturation, and the extremes at smaller spatiotemporal scales, making the implications of local-scale vulnerability incomplete. Here I develop empirical relationships between building energy consumption and temperature to explore the impact of climate change on long-term mean and extremes of energy demand, and test the sensitivity of these impacts to various factors. I find increases in summertime electricity demand exceeding 50% and decreases in wintertime non-electric energy demand of more than 40% in some states by the end of the century. The occurrence of the most extreme (appearing once-per-56-years) electricity demand increases more than 2600 fold, while the occurrence of the once per year extreme events increases more than 70 fold by the end of this century. If the changes in population and AC saturation are also accounted for, the impact of climate change on building energy demand will be exacerbated.
Using the individual building energy simulation approach, I also estimate the impact of climate change to different building types at over 900 US locations. Large increases in building energy consumption are found in the summer, especially during the daytime (e.g., >100% increase for warehouses, 5-6 pm). Large variation of impact is also found within climate zones, suggesting a potential bias when estimating climate-zone scale changes with a small number of representative locations.
As a result of climate change, the building energy expenditures increase in some states (as much as $3 billion/year) while in others, costs decline (as much as $1.4 billion/year). Integrated across the contiguous US, these variations result in a net savings of roughly $4.7 billion/year. However, this must be weighed against the cost (exceeding $19 billion) of adding electricity generation capacity in order to maintain the electricity grid’s reliability in summer.
Using the individual building energy simulation approach, I also estimate the impact of climate change to different building types at over 900 US locations. Large increases in building energy consumption are found in the summer, especially during the daytime (e.g., >100% increase for warehouses, 5-6 pm). Large variation of impact is also found within climate zones, suggesting a potential bias when estimating climate-zone scale changes with a small number of representative locations.
As a result of climate change, the building energy expenditures increase in some states (as much as $3 billion/year) while in others, costs decline (as much as $1.4 billion/year). Integrated across the contiguous US, these variations result in a net savings of roughly $4.7 billion/year. However, this must be weighed against the cost (exceeding $19 billion) of adding electricity generation capacity in order to maintain the electricity grid’s reliability in summer.
Date Created
2016
Contributors
- Huang, Jianhua (Author)
- Gurney, Kevin Robert (Thesis advisor)
- Miller, Clark Anson (Committee member)
- Rey, Sergio J (Committee member)
- Georgescu, Matei (Committee member)
- Arizona State University (Publisher)
Topical Subject
- Environmental sciences
- Climate Change
- energy
- building energy consumption
- climate change impact
- Climate change mitigation
- electricity demand
- Extreme Weather
- spatial temporal data analysis
- Buildings--Energy consumption--United States.
- Buildings
- Dwellings--Energy consumption--United States.
- Dwellings
- Climatic changes--United States.
Resource Type
Extent
ix, 143 pages : illustrations (chiefly color), color maps
Language
Copyright Statement
In Copyright
Primary Member of
Peer-reviewed
No
Open Access
No
Handle
https://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.37046
Statement of Responsibility
by Jianhua Huang
Description Source
Viewed on April 6, 2016
Level of coding
full
Note
Partial requirement for: Ph.D., Arizona State University, 2016
Note type
thesis
Includes bibliographical references (pages 106-114)
Note type
bibliography
Field of study: Environmental social science
System Created
- 2016-04-01 08:00:39
System Modified
- 2021-08-30 01:25:06
- 2 years 8 months ago
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