Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates and the S&P500 EP Ratio

Commercial real estate is tied to the macro conditions of the overall economy. In particular, the paper seeks to relate commercial real estate to alternative investments such as the 10-year treasury and the S&P 500 in the stock market by examining trends over the thirty-year period of 1979-2009. There will be comprehensive analysis, interpretation, and discussion of the national cap rate, the 10-year treasury, and the S&P 500 E/P ratio during the period. By analyzing past economic events and how the 10-year, S&P 500 E/P ratio, and cap rates move, the hope is to identify patterns and leading indicators to provide better insight into future events and behavior of commercial real estate and the stock market. The main intent is to provide the reader with the tools to assess the current market. In doing so, it is then possible to relate the current market with the past and with some degree of accuracy, predict where the market is headed. With such knowledge, investors can more aptly time and allocate their funds in order to maximize their returns.