ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
This collection includes most of the ASU Theses and Dissertations from 2011 to present. ASU Theses and Dissertations are available in downloadable PDF format; however, a small percentage of items are under embargo. Information about the dissertations/theses includes degree information, committee members, an abstract, supporting data or media.
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Description投资实践中，股债等大类资产配置问题是实务从业者面临的核心问题之一。中国的宏观政策决策缺乏良好运作的预期引导机制，宏观政策往往并不能被市场在博弈中充分预期。从历史实践看，中国经济的宏观周期与政策的逆周期调节经常出现错位，政策滞后与超调现象经常出现。从股票市场的过往历程来看，在2007年之前，中国股市走势与宏观经济波动的关联度不大，那时市场规模还不大，并且市场交易以散户投资者为主，驱动股市涨跌的核心因素是投资者的博弈情绪。而在2007年的一轮牛市之后，中国股市中机构投资者的资金规模逐步扩大，总市值也达到80多万亿元，基本面研究的重要性凸显。然而，以公募基金经理为代表的实践者在相对业绩比较基准的业绩考核体系下，更加关注自下而上的个股选择，相对忽视自上而下的宏观及配置研究。此外，长期以来，股票基金经理与债券基金经理的投资方法体系与关注点不一样。相比之下，海外投资机构在20多年以前已经建立起非常成熟的资产配置体系，而国内这方面的研究与实践在近几年才刚起步。 本文通过胜率与赔率的视角，实证研究发现。在可投资股票指数层面，单独的估值与成长信号的平均表现相对于沪深300指数或者中证500指数并不占有明显优势，因此，策略配置的构建需要进行信号遴选与组合。此外，研究还表明，成长因子相对于估值因子在A股指数层面的表现更占优。权益资产指数层面对因子信号的有效性进行分析。研究发现，宏观因子结合估值因子的权益资产配置体系相对于传统的基于资产的配置体系效果更好，前者构建的投资策略可以跑赢中证500指数与沪深300指数，是指数层面实现收益增强的潜在手段，其收益增益主要来源于宏观因子对大类资产相对关系的预测正确率的明显提升。另一方面，估值因子在截面上的因子溢价性价比较高，通过指数产品之间的动态配置转换可以实现部分增强效果。
ContributorsMei, Dongya (Author) / Zhu, David (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Harold (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description随着经营中赊销占比的增加，对企业的营运资本管理能力要求更高，而如何优化营运资金项目，特别是其中的应收账款和存货等流动资产对企业意义重大。混凝土企业的存货占比很小，应收账款在企业流动性资金中的占比极高，影响营运资本周转期的主要因素为应收账款周转期，如何有效提高营运资本效率，特别是应收账款回收效率，是混凝土企业在市场竞争中求得生存的核心之一。以占用营运资金形成应收帐款促进销售会给企业带来一定的优势，也会为企业带来一定的风险，应收账款增加带来的营运资本管理是财务管理的重要事实，需要准确监视和适当管理，企业必须了解应收帐款的规模、性质以及时限，并深入分析讨论这些因素会对企业的绩效带来的潜在影响，合理发挥应收帐款的作用，确保企业营运资本处于正常、合理水平。本文首先以营运资本周转期为核心被解释变量，查看影响不同企业营运资本周转期差异的原因，并基于对这些原因的分析，建立混凝土企业营运资本风险，特别是应收账款风险的预警机制，其次，探讨营运资本周转期与企业绩效的相关关系，验证不同企业的营运资本周转期差异是否会影响企业绩效，在数据支撑的范围内，对影响大小进行一定程度的探讨，为江苏省混凝土行业公司提供一定的经营指导意见，同时为不同企业探索营运资本周转期与企业绩效的相关关系提供参考。
本文研究发现对于江苏省内不同混凝土企业，营运资本周转期与企业绩效正相关且显著，这表明混凝土企业的贸易特征非常明显，企业绩效更多的来自于降低营运资本效率。同时，研究还发现，企业站点数量、周边站点数量、银行承兑汇票结算、其他结算方式、激励机制、客户付款流程、分类催收、第三方催收、竞争形势、高管交际能力这些变量与营运资本周转期密切相关，这些维度分别属于企业规模、企业竞争、资金结算、激励机制、客户信息、账款催收、高管特征等大类，表明提升混凝土企业营运资本周转效率的方式方法多样，值得行业内企业家们总结与探索。
ContributorsTang, Wenfeng (Author) / Huang, Xiaochuan (Thesis advisor) / Sun, Jianfei (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description中资美元城投债近年来蓬勃发展，潜力巨大，成为市场的新亮点。但是因为其诸多特殊性，目前关于中资美元城投债的实证研究几乎是空白。本文选取2018年初至2021年4月底发行的所有中资美元城投债为样本，通过多元线性回归的方法，构建中资美元城投债一级市场发行定价模型，用实证方法来系统分析中资美元城投债发行信用利差的影响因素。在信用风险溢价方面，本研究首先从当地政府对城投公司的支持能力和支持意愿两个维度，创新地选择发行人应收账款政府占比等代理变量，以考察地方政府对城投债隐形担保问题。实证研究发现：（1）发行人所在地区的的人均GDP/全国人均GDP与发行利差显著负相关。（2）发行人所在地区的政府负债率与发行利差显著正相关。（3）发行人应收账款政府占比与中资美元城投债发行利差显著正相关。这些发现对于厘清中资美元城投债发行定价与当地政府的关系提供启发。
其次，本研究首次用实证的方法检验了中资美元城投债信用评级与发行信用利差的相关性。研究表明：（1）发行人国内信用评级与中资美元城投债的发行利差的负相关性在统计意义上并不显著。（2）国际债项评级、发行人国际评级与发行利差的负相关性非常显著。中国国内的信用评级体系还有待完善，国内信用评级的市场公信力有待提升。
另外，在其他宏观风险溢价方面，本研究创新地引入国家风险溢价变量，并以主权债券收益率差作为其代理变量。实证研究发现：（1）国家风险溢价与中资美元城投债发行利差的正相关性非常显著。（2）在同一模型中，目前市场通常采用的发行日美元指数、发行日人民币兑美元中间价与中资美元城投债发行利差的相关性并不显著。这表明，在中资美元城投债这一特殊的跨境债券产品发行定价中，国家风险溢价变量能够更精准、更全面地捕捉不同国家的汇率因素，不同国家经济、政治等宏观风险因素。
本研究在中资美元城投债发行定价模型构建、研究视角切入和变量选择等方面都有创新和突破，并对中资美元城投债市场的良性发展具有实践指导意义。
ContributorsDeng, Lingli (Author) / Zhu, David (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Kan, Rui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description近些年来，我国资产管理行业发展势头迅猛，短短十余年时间，资产管理资金规模便由人民币十万亿余元扩大至百万亿之巨。资产管理行业覆盖范围广阔，几乎渗透了所有金融子行业。在庞大的资金规模下，很多资管机构及管理人并没有足够的专业管理能力，而是依赖政策红利、忽视风险匹配与防范，“人为”埋下许多投资风险隐患。随着2018年《资管新规》的推出，刚性兑付被打破，大量资管产品相继因所投标的违约而产生逾期兑付现象，市场上俗称“暴雷”。“暴雷”产品中不乏知名金融机构身影，且资管产品中涉及管理人未尽勤勉尽职问题，甚至存在直接违反资管合同约定进行投资的诉争案件数目也呈指数增长，即使头部机构也难逃未尽勤勉尽职而担责的境地。目前，我国的相关法律条款对管理人勤勉尽职范围、标准及责任的认定并没有非常明确，相应的惩罚机制也不够严厉。这种情况下，资管合约对管理人相关权利义务的具体约定就变得十分重要。资管合约内容中若对资产管理人投资管理行为及违约责任有明晰的约定，更能杜绝资产管理人不当投资行为，相比同类其它产品，也可以降低资管产品的不当投资风险。本文通过将资管合约条款数据化后，运用数据分析的方法分析固收类资管产品中法律责任规定的明确程度(可追责性)与相应产品的投资风险的关系，以便更好地提示投资者如何进行有效的资产配置，帮助监管者更好地对资管行业进行良性引导与约束，辅助资管机构更好地做好内控、风控及投资流程管理，减少因管理人的不当行为而导致超出正常市场投资风险事件发生的概率，最终实现更好地保护投资者利益及推动社会资产的良性配置的目标。研究发现：（1）管理人权限受约束程度越大，产品投资风险越小；（2）信息披露约定要求越高，产品投资风险越小；（3）投资限制约定越严格，产品投资风险越小；（4）风险披露约定越充分，产品投资风险越小；（5）关联交易限制约定越严格，产品投资风险越小。同时，部分证据还支持：（6） 反映对管理权限制的产品持有人大会权力越大，产品投资风险越小；（7）逾期兑付情况越严重，产品投资风险越大；（8）产品成立时间越早，产品投资风险越大。此外，虽然数据并未直接支持以下研究假设，但是仍有证据表明，在特定条件下这些假设也有成立可能性，具体结论还需进一步研究确立：（9）机构背景风险等级越高，产品投资风险越大；（10）投资团队实力越强，产品投资风险越低；（11）违约责任越明确，产品投资风险越低。
这些研究结果显示，若资管产品合同约定更为明确、更具有可追责性、资产管理机构的内部控制越严谨高效，管理人能尽到勤勉尽职义务，预期风险及收益更为匹配，则固收类资管产品的投资风险相对较低、收益情况更符合预期。
ContributorsOuyang, Qun (Author) / Zhu, David (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Kan, Rui (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description无论是公募基金还是私募证券基金，基金经理的投资能力是影响其管理的基金的绩效的关键因素，如何挑选出拥有优秀的投资能力的基金经理，从而实现好的基金绩效，是一个无论是基金投资者还是基金公司都关注的问题。虽然已经有大量的学者研究基金经理的个人特征与基金绩效之间的关系，但是一方面是过往的而研究更侧重基金业绩的评价方面，另一方面是受限于数据的约束，研究也主要集中在公募基金行业。随着私募证券基金在信息披露等方面逐步规范，可用于比较研究的数据逐渐丰富和标准化，本文也借助美市科技的数据支持，重点分析私募证券基金的个人特征对其管理的基金绩效的影响。在前人研究的基础上，本文将基金总体绩效分解成为超额收益与总风险，并在此基础上将超额收益进一步分解成为选股能力及择时能力，将总风险进一步分解为系统性风险与非系统性风险。本文从生理特征、教育背景、从业时间这几个角度作为选择解释变量的依据，再将市场进一步分成牛市与熊市两个阶段，以更好地分析基金经理的个人特征和基金绩效之间的关系。
本文的研究结果显示：(1) 无论是牛市还是熊市，基金经理的性别特征对基金的绩效没有显著的影响关系。(2) 无论是牛市还是熊市，基金经理的学历与基金的总风险呈现显著的负向关系。并且在牛市中基金经理的学历因素与基金的综合绩效呈正相关的关系。(3) 基金经理的从业经验与基金的综合绩效呈负相关的关系。
ContributorsZhu, Yifan (Author) / Shi, Zhan (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Hui (Committee member) / Chen, Andrew N.K. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description在世界经济周期当中，货币及信贷政策是各国政府调节经济周期的主要手段，但宽松的货币及信贷环境不仅仅会体现在GDP生产和交易过程中，也会带来二手的资产市场价格变动，进而对国家的经济，资产市场等产生长远的影响。当前疫情之下，美国采取极度宽松的货币政策，而中国资产价格经过过去30年的发展，已经处在高位，如何控制货币信贷政策和资产价格的关系是政策研究重点。本文引入信贷脉冲（Credit impulse）、利率、房地产价格增速作为变量，采用VAR模型评估中国的信贷脉冲对于中国房地产价格增速的影响，发现信贷脉冲的冲击在当期不会对房地产价格增速造成很大影响，但在第二期开始对房地产价格增速产生明显的正向作用，然后从第三期开始效果减弱，但是持续时间也比较长，即信贷脉冲可以作为房价预测的6-12个月的领先指标。而对分能级的一二三线城市的研究来看，一线城市房价增速受到信贷脉冲的影响程度明显强于二线城市，二线城市强于三线城市；而从脉冲响应的时间滞后性来看也是一线城市快于二线城市，二线城市快于三线城市。
本文引入房地产价格增速、信贷脉冲、利率、收入因素、城市化作为变量采用面板模型分析了中国信贷脉冲对各类城市商品住房平均销售价格增速的影响。从能级来看，信贷脉冲影响的程度上，一线城市强于二线城市，二线城市强于三线城市；从区位来看，信贷脉冲对东部地区价格影响显著，中部和西部影响较弱。
本文从一个新的视角提出了一个预测中国房地产价格的走势的宏观模型，并提供了实证检验，可为中国的投资者提供投资判断依据。
ContributorsGuo, Hongzhi (Author) / Huang, Xiaochuan (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Sun, Jianfei (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
With the ongoing development of China's financial market, the investment choices for investors are gradually enriched. Exploring asset allocation for different economic cycle stages can help investors achieve higher returns from the economic cycle rotation, and at the same time, effectively diversify the investment risks and improve the stability of investment returns. In this paper, we systematically sort out a series of studies on asset allocation and economic cycle theory, and build an economic cycle rotation investment strategy applicable to China's economic environment and changes in China's capital market.Based on China's macroeconomic data and investment asset classes, this paper optimizes the division of economic cycle stages, integrates the economic cycle rotation strategy and risk parity strategy, and incorporates liquidity elements to construct an asset allocation strategy. Specific findings are as follows: (1) this paper uses the "slope" and "threshold" of the year-on-year change of industrial value added to divide the economic output stage, which overcomes the drawbacks of relying on economic cycle indicators that cause frequent changes in cycle stages; (2) the investment strategy developed in the paper is able to obtain considerable investment returns, reduces investment risks, and achieves retracement control.
ii
The findings of this paper enrich and expand the research on economic cycle theory and asset allocation theory to a certain extent, and also provide some inspiration for the practice of asset allocation.
ContributorsZhao, Guomin (Author) / Huang, Xiao-Chuan (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Liang, Bin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
This study aims to explore the impact of employee incentives on innovation in the Chinese inductive manufacturing industry. Using a sample of publicly listed inductive manufacturing companies in China, we construct a panel dataset spanning from 1994 to 2022 and employ a multiple regression model for empirical analysis. Our findings reveal that employee incentive programs have a significant positive effect on the performance of inductive companies in terms of inductive reliability experiments, and the number of patent applications, granted patents, and patent citations over the next two years. Particularly, the positive relationship between employee incentives and innovation is more pronounced in companies with higher ownership concentration. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the crucial role of employee incentives in facilitating corporate innovation in Chinese inductive manufacturing firms. Furthermore, the results provide valuable insights for firms in formulating stock ownership structures and employee incentive plans, as well as policy implications for developing China's high-end manufacturing industries.
ContributorsZhang, Jieping (Author) / Huang, Xiaochuan (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Harold (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
The pharmaceutical industry plays an important role in Chinese economic development. How to propel the innovation and growth of the pharmaceutical industry with capital market tools becomes an important question. With the increasing layout of venture capital (VC) in the pharmaceutical industry, the impact of VC participation on the innovation and growth of pharmaceutical enterprises should be carefully studied. For investment purposes, CVCs, which are established by industrial corporations, mainly focus on new technologies and modes in the relevant industrial chain of their parent companies, and try to establish strategic synergy through their equity investment. IVCs have no specific industry restrictions, and their purpose is to search for and identify innovative enterprises with high growth potentials, and to harvest financial gains by investing in them.In order to explore these issues, this paper collects and analyzes data from a sample of Chinese A-share listed pharmaceutical companies from 2015 to 2022, tests the impact of VCs on the innovation inputs, innovation outputs, and growth performance of this sample of companies, and examines the differences between the impacts of IVCs and CVCs on the relevant performance. It is found that VC investment has a significant positive impact on pharmaceutical firms' innovation input, innovation output, and firm growth. In particular, IVCs have a significant positive effect on innovation input, growth performance, and an insignificant effect on innovation output of pharmaceutical firms.
CVCs, on the other hand, have a significant positive effect on innovation input, innovation output, and growth performance of pharmaceutical firms. In addition, the interaction between IVC and CVC can further enhance the innovation input level and growth performance level of pharmaceutical enterprises.
This paper uncovers the differences in the impact of IVCs and CVCs on the innovation input, innovation output, and growth performance of pharmaceutical enterprises, expands the research on venture capital, enriches the driving mechanism of pharmaceutical enterprises' high-quality growth and innovation capability in the Chinese context. This paper also provides some insights into how pharmaceutical enterprises select VCs and how VCs can empower pharmaceutical enterprises in practice.
ContributorsZhang, Pei (Author) / Zhu, David (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Fei (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
The Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect program is a globally unique institutional innovation. This partially open financial system is unparalleled worldwide. As the influence of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect on A-shares has grown, the volume of research literature has gradually increased, and studies on the policy impact from various sectors have become prevalent. Prior to the introduction of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect, studies indicated that A-share stock prices did not significantly react to stock information, indicating low informational content in stock prices. The Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect, through its moderate openness, has effectively introduced mature overseas investment philosophies and international capital, altering the investor structure of A-shares and impacting trading behavior. This paper aims to explore whether the initiation of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy positively affects the informational content of A-share stock prices under the aforementioned premises. To minimize the interference of short-term market fluctuations on the research, this paper uses the relatively long-term future earnings response as the entry point for studying the informational content of stock prices. Specifically, it first selects a full sample of Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks to conduct annual cross-sectional regression and multi-year linear regression to examine changes in the informational content of stock prices before and after policy implementation. It then includes a control group of stocks not selected for the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect, conducting multi-year linear regression analysis with the experimental group samples to investigate whether the policy initiation has improved the informational content of stock prices for Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks compared to those not selected. The results show that after the initiation of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy, the informational content of stock prices increased for Shanghai Stock Connect but decreased for Shenzhen Stock Connect. Compared to stocks not selected for the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the informational content of stock prices also increased for Shanghai Stock Connect and decreased for Shenzhen Stock Connect. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy has indeed achieved its initial policy design goals, warranting further exploration into deepening openness to optimize the structure of the capital market.
ContributorsLuo, Jie (Author) / Shi, Zhan (Thesis advisor) / Ju, Nengjiu (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2024