DECADES

ARIZONA
INDICATORS

WHAT THE TRENDS TELL US

Trends in Criminal Justice

DECADES
VOLUME 1 / ISSUE 2
JANUARY 2010
arizonaindicators.org

By Bill Hart
Senior Analyst
Morrison Institute for Public Policy
Arizona State University

Q: What were the most interesting and important trends in Criminal Justice that occurred in the
previous decade? What is the significance of these trends and what insights can we apply to the
new decade?

A: Few would disagree that Arizona’s most significant criminal-justice trend of the 2000s has
been the enormous growth of the state’s prison population, which far outpaced state population
growth and continued upward even as the rate of major crimes dropped. Here are the numbers:

State Population
Violent Crime Rate*
Property Crime Rate*
Prison Population

2000

2008

Percent Change

5,130,632
531.7
5,297.8
26,747

6,629,455
447
4,291
39,502

29%
-16%
-19%
48%

* Reported major crimes per 100,000 state residents
Sources: FBI, Arizona Department of Corrections

The figures tell a dramatic story. But what story? Some say they confirm the wisdom of Arizona’s
decision to lock up so many criminals and achieve one of the nation’s highest incarceration rates. After
all, they note, crime has dropped. Others sharply disagree, arguing that the crime drop—a national
phenomenon—is only partially linked to the rise in incarceration—also a national phenomenon. Mass
imprisonment, they claim, often actually promotes crime, unfairly falls on the poor and minorities, and
is far too expensive to sustain.
That last point is the one now gaining converts. Given Arizona’s daunting budget deficits, its strong
pro-incarceration policy is slipping from favor, as state officials search frantically for ways to cut state
expenditures. The next decade is likely to witness an increasing emphasis on non-prison criminal
sanctions—probation, home arrest, county jail time, fines, restitution, etc.—and on “treatment”
approaches to drug and DUI offenses, which together now account for more than one-quarter of all
prisoners. A key element of Arizonans’ public safety, in other words, will be shaped by factors that have
nothing to do with public safety. It won’t come easily; few elected officials are eager to release inmates or
argue against imprisonment. The only thing more difficult is finding an alternative.

Arizona Indicators is
an online information
resource and analysis
tool that centralizes data
about the state and its
communities. Arizona
Indicators presents
interactive visualizations,
clear data descriptions,
and public opinion data
in a broad range of
content areas.

This project is made
possible by generous
support from the Arizona
Community Foundation
and Arizona State
University.

For more information,
contact Andrea Whitsett
at (602) 496-0217 or
andrea.whitsett@asu.edu.

Arizona Indicators is
a project of Morrison
Institute for Public Policy.

411 N Central Ave
Suite 900
Phoenix, Arizona
85004-0692
(602) 496-0900 Main
(602) 496-0964 Fax
MorrisonInstitute.asu.edu