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Description
There has been important progress in understanding ecological dynamics through the development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. This fast growing theory provides new constraints and mechanisms that can be formulated into mathematical models. Stoichiometric models incorporate the effects of both food quantity and food quality into a single framework that produce rich dynamics. While the effects of nutrient deficiency on consumer growth are well understood, recent discoveries in ecological stoichiometry suggest that consumer dynamics are not only affected by insufficient food nutrient content (low phosphorus (P): carbon (C) ratio) but also by excess food nutrient content (high P:C). This phenomenon, known as the stoichiometric knife edge, in which animal growth is reduced not only by food with low P content but also by food with high P content, needs to be incorporated into mathematical models. Here we present Lotka-Volterra type models to investigate the growth response of Daphnia to algae of varying P:C ratios. Using a nonsmooth system of two ordinary differential equations (ODEs), we formulate the first model to incorporate the phenomenon of the stoichiometric knife edge. We then extend this stoichiometric model by mechanistically deriving and tracking free P in the environment. This resulting full knife edge model is a nonsmooth system of three ODEs. Bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations of the full model, that explicitly tracks phosphorus, leads to quantitatively different predictions than previous models that neglect to track free nutrients. The full model shows that the grazer population is sensitive to excess nutrient concentrations as a dynamical free nutrient pool induces extreme grazer population density changes. These modeling efforts provide insight on the effects of excess nutrient content on grazer dynamics and deepen our understanding of the effects of stoichiometry on the mechanisms governing population dynamics and the interactions between trophic levels.
ContributorsPeace, Angela (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James J (Committee member) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
In 1968, phycologist M.R. Droop published his famous discovery on the functional relationship between growth rate and internal nutrient status of algae in chemostat culture. The simple notion that growth is directly dependent on intracellular nutrient concentration is useful for understanding the dynamics in many ecological systems. The cell quota in particular lends itself to ecological stoichiometry, which is a powerful framework for mathematical ecology. Three models are developed based on the cell quota principal in order to demonstrate its applications beyond chemostat culture.
First, a data-driven model is derived for neutral lipid synthesis in green microalgae with respect to nitrogen limitation. This model synthesizes several established frameworks in phycology and ecological stoichiometry. The model demonstrates how the cell quota is a useful abstraction for understanding the metabolic shift to neutral lipid production that is observed in certain oleaginous species.
Next a producer-grazer model is developed based on the cell quota model and nutrient recycling. The model incorporates a novel feedback loop to account for animal toxicity due to accumulation of nitrogen waste. The model exhibits rich, complex dynamics which leave several open mathematical questions.
Lastly, disease dynamics in vivo are in many ways analogous to those of an ecosystem, giving natural extensions of the cell quota concept to disease modeling. Prostate cancer can be modeled within this framework, with androgen the limiting nutrient and the prostate and cancer cells as competing species. Here the cell quota model provides a useful abstraction for the dependence of cellular proliferation and apoptosis on androgen and the androgen receptor. Androgen ablation therapy is often used for patients in biochemical recurrence or late-stage disease progression and is in general initially effective. However, for many patients the cancer eventually develops resistance months to years after treatment begins. Understanding how and predicting when hormone therapy facilitates evolution of resistant phenotypes has immediate implications for treatment. Cell quota models for prostate cancer can be useful tools for this purpose and motivate applications to other diseases.
First, a data-driven model is derived for neutral lipid synthesis in green microalgae with respect to nitrogen limitation. This model synthesizes several established frameworks in phycology and ecological stoichiometry. The model demonstrates how the cell quota is a useful abstraction for understanding the metabolic shift to neutral lipid production that is observed in certain oleaginous species.
Next a producer-grazer model is developed based on the cell quota model and nutrient recycling. The model incorporates a novel feedback loop to account for animal toxicity due to accumulation of nitrogen waste. The model exhibits rich, complex dynamics which leave several open mathematical questions.
Lastly, disease dynamics in vivo are in many ways analogous to those of an ecosystem, giving natural extensions of the cell quota concept to disease modeling. Prostate cancer can be modeled within this framework, with androgen the limiting nutrient and the prostate and cancer cells as competing species. Here the cell quota model provides a useful abstraction for the dependence of cellular proliferation and apoptosis on androgen and the androgen receptor. Androgen ablation therapy is often used for patients in biochemical recurrence or late-stage disease progression and is in general initially effective. However, for many patients the cancer eventually develops resistance months to years after treatment begins. Understanding how and predicting when hormone therapy facilitates evolution of resistant phenotypes has immediate implications for treatment. Cell quota models for prostate cancer can be useful tools for this purpose and motivate applications to other diseases.
ContributorsPacker, Aaron (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both susceptible and resistant bacteria species, as well as phage, can coexist at an equilibrium for hundreds of hours. The current research is inspired by these observations, and the goal is to establish a mathematical model and explore sufficient and necessary conditions for the coexistence. In this dissertation a model with infinite distributed delay terms based on some existing work is established. A rigorous analysis of the well-posedness of this model is provided, and it is proved that the susceptible bacteria persist. To study the persistence of phage species, a "Phage Reproduction Number" (PRN) is defined. The mathematical analysis shows phage persist if PRN > 1 and vanish if PRN < 1. A sufficient condition and a necessary condition for persistence of resistant bacteria are given. The persistence of the phage is essential for the persistence of resistant bacteria. Also, the resistant bacteria persist if its fitness is the same as the susceptible bacteria and if PRN > 1. A special case of the general model leads to a system of ordinary differential equations, for which numerical simulation results are presented.
ContributorsHan, Zhun (Author) / Smith, Hal (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Kawski, Matthias (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Rabies is an infectious viral disease. It is usually fatal if a victim reaches the rabid stage, which starts after the appearance of disease symptoms. The disease virus attacks the central nervous system, and then it migrates from peripheral nerves to the spinal cord and brain. At the time when the rabies virus reaches the brain, the incubation period is over and the symptoms of clinical disease appear on the victim. From the brain, the virus travels via nerves to the salivary glands and saliva.
A mathematical model is developed for the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population to model the spread of the rabies epizootic through middle Europe that occurred in the second half of the 20th century. The model considers both territorial and wandering rabid foxes and includes a latent period for the infection. Since the model assumes these two kinds of rabid foxes, it is a system of both partial differential and integral equations (with integration
over space and, occasionally, also over time). To study the spreading speeds of the rabies epidemic, the model is reduced to a scalar Volterra-Hammerstein integral equation, and space-time Laplace transform of the integral equation is used to derive implicit formulas for the spreading speed. The spreading speeds are discussed and implicit formulas are given for latent periods of fixed length, exponentially distributed length, Gamma distributed length, and log-normally distributed length. A number of analytic and numerical results are shown pertaining to the spreading speeds.
Further, a numerical algorithm is described for the simulation
of the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population on a bounded domain with Dirichlet boundary conditions. I propose the following methods for the numerical approximation of solutions. The partial differential and integral equations are discretized in the space variable by central differences of second order and by
the composite trapezoidal rule. Next, the ordinary or delay differential equations that are obtained this way are discretized in time by explicit
continuous Runge-Kutta methods of fourth order for ordinary and delay differential systems. My particular interest
is in how the partition of rabid foxes into
territorial and diffusing rabid foxes influences
the spreading speed, a question that can be answered by purely analytic means only for small basic reproduction numbers. I will restrict the numerical analysis
to latent periods of fixed length and to exponentially
distributed latent periods.
The results of the numerical calculations
are compared for latent periods
of fixed and exponentially distributed length
and for various proportions of territorial
and wandering rabid foxes.
The speeds of spread observed in the
simulations are compared
to spreading speeds obtained by numerically solving the analytic formulas
and to observed speeds of epizootic frontlines
in the European rabies outbreak 1940 to 1980.
A mathematical model is developed for the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population to model the spread of the rabies epizootic through middle Europe that occurred in the second half of the 20th century. The model considers both territorial and wandering rabid foxes and includes a latent period for the infection. Since the model assumes these two kinds of rabid foxes, it is a system of both partial differential and integral equations (with integration
over space and, occasionally, also over time). To study the spreading speeds of the rabies epidemic, the model is reduced to a scalar Volterra-Hammerstein integral equation, and space-time Laplace transform of the integral equation is used to derive implicit formulas for the spreading speed. The spreading speeds are discussed and implicit formulas are given for latent periods of fixed length, exponentially distributed length, Gamma distributed length, and log-normally distributed length. A number of analytic and numerical results are shown pertaining to the spreading speeds.
Further, a numerical algorithm is described for the simulation
of the spread of rabies in a spatially distributed fox population on a bounded domain with Dirichlet boundary conditions. I propose the following methods for the numerical approximation of solutions. The partial differential and integral equations are discretized in the space variable by central differences of second order and by
the composite trapezoidal rule. Next, the ordinary or delay differential equations that are obtained this way are discretized in time by explicit
continuous Runge-Kutta methods of fourth order for ordinary and delay differential systems. My particular interest
is in how the partition of rabid foxes into
territorial and diffusing rabid foxes influences
the spreading speed, a question that can be answered by purely analytic means only for small basic reproduction numbers. I will restrict the numerical analysis
to latent periods of fixed length and to exponentially
distributed latent periods.
The results of the numerical calculations
are compared for latent periods
of fixed and exponentially distributed length
and for various proportions of territorial
and wandering rabid foxes.
The speeds of spread observed in the
simulations are compared
to spreading speeds obtained by numerically solving the analytic formulas
and to observed speeds of epizootic frontlines
in the European rabies outbreak 1940 to 1980.
ContributorsAlanazi, Khalaf Matar (Author) / Thieme, Horst R. (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Efforts to treat prostate cancer have seen an uptick, as the world’s most commoncancer in men continues to have increasing global incidence. Clinically, metastatic
prostate cancer is most commonly treated with hormonal therapy. The idea behind
hormonal therapy is to reduce androgen production, which prostate cancer cells
require for growth. Recently, the exploration of the synergistic effects of the drugs
used in hormonal therapy has begun. The aim was to build off of these recent
advancements and further refine the synergistic drug model. The advancements I
implement come by addressing biological shortcomings and improving the model’s
internal mechanistic structure. The drug families being modeled, anti-androgens,
and gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogs, interact with androgen production in a
way that is not completely understood in the scientific community. Thus the models
representing the drugs show progress through their ability to capture their effect
on serum androgen. Prostate-specific antigen is the primary biomarker for prostate
cancer and is generally how population models on the subject are validated. Fitting
the model to clinical data and comparing it to other clinical models through the
ability to fit and forecast prostate-specific antigen and serum androgen is how this
improved model achieves validation. The improved model results further suggest that
the drugs’ dynamics should be considered in adaptive therapy for prostate cancer.
prostate cancer is most commonly treated with hormonal therapy. The idea behind
hormonal therapy is to reduce androgen production, which prostate cancer cells
require for growth. Recently, the exploration of the synergistic effects of the drugs
used in hormonal therapy has begun. The aim was to build off of these recent
advancements and further refine the synergistic drug model. The advancements I
implement come by addressing biological shortcomings and improving the model’s
internal mechanistic structure. The drug families being modeled, anti-androgens,
and gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogs, interact with androgen production in a
way that is not completely understood in the scientific community. Thus the models
representing the drugs show progress through their ability to capture their effect
on serum androgen. Prostate-specific antigen is the primary biomarker for prostate
cancer and is generally how population models on the subject are validated. Fitting
the model to clinical data and comparing it to other clinical models through the
ability to fit and forecast prostate-specific antigen and serum androgen is how this
improved model achieves validation. The improved model results further suggest that
the drugs’ dynamics should be considered in adaptive therapy for prostate cancer.
ContributorsReckell, Trevor (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
The analysis focuses on a two-population, three-dimensional model that attempts to accurately model the growth and diffusion of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), a highly invasive brain cancer, throughout the brain. Analysis into the sensitivity of the model to
changes in the diffusion, growth, and death parameters was performed, in order to find a set of parameter values that accurately model observed tumor growth for a given patient. Additional changes were made to the diffusion parameters to account for the arrangement of nerve tracts in the brain, resulting in varying rates of diffusion. In general, small changes in the growth rates had a large impact on the outcome of the simulations, and for each patient there exists a set of parameters that allow the model to simulate a tumor that matches observed tumor growth in the patient over a period of two or three months. Furthermore, these results are more accurate with anisotropic diffusion, rather than isotropic diffusion. However, these parameters lead to inaccurate results for patients with tumors that undergo no observable growth over the given time interval. While it is possible to simulate long-term tumor growth, the simulation requires multiple comparisons to available MRI scans in order to find a set of parameters that provide an accurate prognosis.
changes in the diffusion, growth, and death parameters was performed, in order to find a set of parameter values that accurately model observed tumor growth for a given patient. Additional changes were made to the diffusion parameters to account for the arrangement of nerve tracts in the brain, resulting in varying rates of diffusion. In general, small changes in the growth rates had a large impact on the outcome of the simulations, and for each patient there exists a set of parameters that allow the model to simulate a tumor that matches observed tumor growth in the patient over a period of two or three months. Furthermore, these results are more accurate with anisotropic diffusion, rather than isotropic diffusion. However, these parameters lead to inaccurate results for patients with tumors that undergo no observable growth over the given time interval. While it is possible to simulate long-term tumor growth, the simulation requires multiple comparisons to available MRI scans in order to find a set of parameters that provide an accurate prognosis.
ContributorsTrent, Austin Lee (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis advisor) / Gumel, Abba (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Climate change is one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today. One of the impacts of climate change is on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs), such as West Nile Virus (WNV). Climate is known to influence vector and host demography as well as MBD transmission. This dissertation addresses the questions of how vector and host demography impact WNV dynamics, and how expected and likely climate change scenarios will affect demographic and epidemiological processes of WNV transmission. First, a data fusion method is developed that connects non-autonomous logistic model parameters to mosquito time series data. This method captures the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variation of mosquito populations within a geographical location. Next, a three-population WNV model between mosquito vectors, bird hosts, and human hosts with infection-age structure for the vector and bird host populations is introduced. A sensitivity analysis uncovers which parameters have the most influence on WNV outbreaks. Finally, the WNV model is extended to include the non-autonomous population model and temperature-dependent processes. Model parameterization using historical temperature and human WNV case data from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is conducted. Parameter fitting results are then used to analyze possible future WNV dynamics under two climate change scenarios. These results suggest that WNV risk for the GTA will substantially increase as temperature increases from climate change, even under the most conservative assumptions. This demonstrates the importance of ensuring that the warming of the planet is limited as much as possible.
ContributorsMancuso, Marina (Author) / Milner, Fabio A (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Eikenberry, Steffen (Committee member) / Manore, Carrie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023