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Schennach (2007) has shown that the Empirical Likelihood (EL) estimator may not be asymptotically normal when a misspecified model is estimated. This problem occurs because the empirical probabilities of individual observations are restricted to be positive. I find that even the EL estimator computed without the restriction can fail to be asymptotically normal for misspecified models if the sample moments weighted by unrestricted empirical probabilities do not have finite population moments. As a remedy for this problem, I propose a group of alternative estimators which I refer to as modified EL (MEL) estimators. For correctly specified models, these estimators have the same higher order asymptotic properties as the EL estimator. The MEL estimators are obtained by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) applied to an exactly identified model. The simulation results provide promising evidence for these estimators. In the second chapter, I introduce an alternative group of estimators to the Generalized Empirical Likelihood (GEL) family. The new group is constructed by employing demeaned moment functions in the objective function while using the original moment functions in the constraints. This designation modifies the higher-order properties of estimators. I refer to these new estimators as Demeaned Generalized Empirical Likelihood (DGEL) estimators. Although Newey and Smith (2004) show that the EL estimator in the GEL family has fewer sources of bias and is higher-order efficient after bias-correction, the demeaned exponential tilting (DET) estimator in the DGEL group has those superior properties. In addition, if data are symmetrically distributed, every estimator in the DGEL family shares the same higher-order properties as the best member.
ContributorsXiang, Jin (Author) / Ahn, Seung (Thesis advisor) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis advisor) / Bharath, Sreedhar (Committee member) / Mehra, Rajnish (Committee member) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The Chinese capital market is characterized by high segmentation due to governmental regulations. In this thesis I investigate both the causes and consequences of this market segmentations. Specifically, I address the following questions: (1) to which degree this capital market segmentation is caused by the fragmented regulations in China, (2) what are the key characteristics of this market segmentation, and (3) what are the impacts of this market segmentation on capital costs and resources allocations. Answers to these questions can have important implications for Chinese policy makers to improve capital market regulatory coordination and efficiency. I organize this thesis as follows. First, I define the concepts of capital market segmentation and fragmented regulation based on literature reviews and theoretical analysis. Next, on the basis of existing theories and methods in finance and economics, I select a number of indicators to systematically measure the degree of regulatory segmentation in China’s capital market. I then develop an econometric model of capital market frontier efficiency analysis to calculate and analyze China’s capital market segmentation and regulatory fragmentation. Lastly, I use the production function analysis technique and the even study method to examine the impacts of fragmented regulatory segmentation on the connections and price distortions in the equity, debt, and insurance markets. Findings of this thesis enhance the understanding of how institutional forces such as governmental regulations influence the function and efficiency of the capital markets.
ContributorsJia, Shaojun (Author) / Hwang, Yuhchang (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Hong (Committee member) / Wahal, Sunil (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Merton (1987) predicts that idiosyncratic risk can be priced. I develop a simple equilibrium model of capital markets with information costs in which the idiosyncratic risk premium depends on the average level of idiosyncratic volatility. This dependence suggests that the idiosyncratic risk premium varies over time. I find that in U.S. markets, the covariance between stock-level idiosyncratic volatility and the idiosyncratic risk premium explains future stock returns. Stocks in the highest quintile of the covariance between the volatility and risk premium earn an average 3-factor alpha of 70 bps per month higher than those in the lowest quintile.
ContributorsXie, Daruo (Author) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis advisor) / Mehra, Rajnish (Thesis advisor) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This paper examines dealers' inventory holding periods and the associated price markups on corporate bonds from 2003 to 2010. Changes in these measures explain a large part of the time series variation in aggregate corporate bond prices. In the cross-section, holding periods and markups overshadow extant liquidity measures and have significant explanatory power for individual bond prices. Both measures shed light on the credit spread puzzle: changes in credit spread are positively correlated with changes in holding periods and markups, and a large portion of credit spread changes is explained by them. The economic effects of holding periods and markups are particularly sharp during crisis periods.
ContributorsQian, Zhiyi (Author) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis advisor) / Bharath, Sreedhar (Committee member) / Coles, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Mehra, Rajnish (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This paper looks at defined contribution 401(k) plans in the United States to analyze whether or not participants have plans with better plan characteristics defined in this study by paying more for administration services, advisory services, and investments. By collecting and analyzing Form 5500 and audit data, I find that there is no relation between how much a plan and its participants are paying for recordkeeping, advisory, and investment fees and the analyzed characteristics of the plan that they receive in regards to active/passive allocation, revenue share, and the performance of the funds.
ContributorsAziz, Julian (Author) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis director) / Bharath, Sreedhar (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the history of the Bitcoin arbitrage premium to see if the possibility of 'risk-free' gains existed previously and whether or not the opportunity is still present today. It investigates market structure and price discrepancies in $147B of trading volume across 53 different exchanges between July 2010 and February 2017. This paper aggregates exchange trading into five minute buckets of transaction volume in order to see what exchange volume could have been successfully arbitraged within the context of two cases. The first requires trades to close within the same 5-minute interval and the second requires a 10-minute delay before the position is closed. It finds that the monthly average spreads of these cases have fallen below 3% in 2017 from nearly 10% in 2010. Once exchange fees are included, these spreads fall below 2% on average.
ContributorsNowicki, Gregory Arthur (Author) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis director) / Simonson, Mark (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the pricing of Alternative Asset Management products and macroeconomic variables. It does so using an index of Alternative Asset Management products, employing a VAR framework and examining the implied impulse response functions. I find a bivariate causal relation between the expected rate of return on Alternative Asset Management products and the growth rate of industrial value added. I also find that the CPI, the yield on one-year national debt, the weighted average yield of bond repurchases in interbank bond market, and the one-year loan interest rate can influence the expected return rate of Alternative Asset Management products. An analysis of the variance decomposition suggests that macroeconomic variables have a different impacts on forecast errors variance.
ContributorsHuang, Jianxian (Author) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis advisor) / Chang, Chun (Thesis advisor) / Lee, Peggy (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Based on multiple case studies of the transactions in China by private equity funds, this paper attempts to explore the value-creation capabilities of private equity funds at the transaction/deal level.
Previous studies on financial performance of PE funds utilized data collected from publically traded companies in European/US markets. By measuring financial performance of both “pre- and post-transactions,” these studies researched two questions: 1) Do buyout funds create value? 2) If they do, what are the sources of value creation? In general, studies conclude that private equity/buyout funds do create value at both the deal level and investor level. They also identified four possible sources of such value creation: 1) undervaluation, 2) leverage effect, 3) better governance, and 4) operational improvement.
However, relatively little is known about the process of value creation. In this study, I attempt to fill that gap, revealing the “secret recipe” of value creation.
By carefully looking into the process of value creation, this study suggests five propositions covering capabilities at 1) deal selection/screening, 2) deal structuring, 3) operational improvement, 4) investment exit, and 5) Top Management Team (TMT). These capabilities at private equity/buyout funds are critical factors for value creation. In a thorough review of the value-creation process, this paper hopes to:
1) Share real-life experiences and lessons learned on private equity transactions in China as a developing economy.
2) Reveal the process of deal/transaction to observe measures taken place within deal/transaction for value creation.
3) Show how well-executed strategies and capabilities in deal selection/screening, deal structuring, operational improvement, and investment exit can still create value for private equity firms without financial leverage.
4) Share the experience of State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) reform participated in by private equity firms in China. This could provide valuable information for policy makers in China.
Previous studies on financial performance of PE funds utilized data collected from publically traded companies in European/US markets. By measuring financial performance of both “pre- and post-transactions,” these studies researched two questions: 1) Do buyout funds create value? 2) If they do, what are the sources of value creation? In general, studies conclude that private equity/buyout funds do create value at both the deal level and investor level. They also identified four possible sources of such value creation: 1) undervaluation, 2) leverage effect, 3) better governance, and 4) operational improvement.
However, relatively little is known about the process of value creation. In this study, I attempt to fill that gap, revealing the “secret recipe” of value creation.
By carefully looking into the process of value creation, this study suggests five propositions covering capabilities at 1) deal selection/screening, 2) deal structuring, 3) operational improvement, 4) investment exit, and 5) Top Management Team (TMT). These capabilities at private equity/buyout funds are critical factors for value creation. In a thorough review of the value-creation process, this paper hopes to:
1) Share real-life experiences and lessons learned on private equity transactions in China as a developing economy.
2) Reveal the process of deal/transaction to observe measures taken place within deal/transaction for value creation.
3) Show how well-executed strategies and capabilities in deal selection/screening, deal structuring, operational improvement, and investment exit can still create value for private equity firms without financial leverage.
4) Share the experience of State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) reform participated in by private equity firms in China. This could provide valuable information for policy makers in China.
ContributorsYe, Youming (Author) / Lee, Peggy (Thesis advisor) / Zhu, Ning (Thesis advisor) / Wahal, Sunil (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Shareholder Activism is a mechanism by which investors who hold a significant but
non-majority percentage of a company’s stock, exercise their voting rights, participate in
corporate governance and influence operational decisions of target companies. The
purpose is improve corporate governance, increase firm performance and boost share
-holders’ returns. Existing studies of shareholder activism, based largely in mature
capital markets like the US, come to different conclusions regarding its impact on firm
performance.
In this paper, I collect data on shareholder activism events in the China A Share
market between 2006 and 2016. The sample includes 60 companies targeted by 42
activist investors over this period. I find that institutional investors, typically industrial
capital and private funds, playing an increasingly important role in corporate governance
of Chinese listed companies through activism. The disclosure of the holdings of activists
results in large gains in the target firm. I also find subsequent improvements in long
-term operational performance of target firms. Activist investors in China focus on
smaller targets and those characterized by higher agency costs and lower operating
performance. Activists appear to be largely concerned with improvements in business
strategy and M&A activity. Non-hostile behavior is more likely to be related to successful
activism in China. In addition to statistical evidence, I present case studies of the
“BaoWan dispute” and the activist investment of Butterfly Capital in two firms,
“Guonong” and “Xiuqiang”. The case studies highlight the mechanism employed by these
firms to influence performance.
I conclude with policy recommendations and direction for further research.
non-majority percentage of a company’s stock, exercise their voting rights, participate in
corporate governance and influence operational decisions of target companies. The
purpose is improve corporate governance, increase firm performance and boost share
-holders’ returns. Existing studies of shareholder activism, based largely in mature
capital markets like the US, come to different conclusions regarding its impact on firm
performance.
In this paper, I collect data on shareholder activism events in the China A Share
market between 2006 and 2016. The sample includes 60 companies targeted by 42
activist investors over this period. I find that institutional investors, typically industrial
capital and private funds, playing an increasingly important role in corporate governance
of Chinese listed companies through activism. The disclosure of the holdings of activists
results in large gains in the target firm. I also find subsequent improvements in long
-term operational performance of target firms. Activist investors in China focus on
smaller targets and those characterized by higher agency costs and lower operating
performance. Activists appear to be largely concerned with improvements in business
strategy and M&A activity. Non-hostile behavior is more likely to be related to successful
activism in China. In addition to statistical evidence, I present case studies of the
“BaoWan dispute” and the activist investment of Butterfly Capital in two firms,
“Guonong” and “Xiuqiang”. The case studies highlight the mechanism employed by these
firms to influence performance.
I conclude with policy recommendations and direction for further research.
ContributorsXie, Fenghua (Author) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hong (Thesis advisor) / Lee, Peggy (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This dissertation is a collection of three essays relating household financial obligations to asset prices. Financial obligations include both debt payments and other financial commitments.
In the first essay, I investigate how household financial obligations affect the equity premium. I modify the standard Mehra-Prescott (1985) consumption-based asset pricing model to resolve the equity risk premium puzzle. I focus on two channels: the preference channel and the borrowing constraints channel. Under reasonable parameterizations, my model generates equity risk premiums similar in magnitudes to those observed in U.S. data. Furthermore, I show that relaxing the borrowing constraint shrinks the equity risk premium.
In the Second essay, I test the predictability of excess market returns using the household financial obligations ratio. I show that deviations in the household financial obligations ratio from its long-run mean is a better forecaster of future market returns than alternative prediction variables. The results remain significant using either quarterly or annual data and are robust to out-of-sample tests.
In the third essay, I investigate whether the risk associated with household financial obligations is an economy-wide risk with the potential to explain fluctuations in the cross-section of stock returns. The multifactor model I propose, is a modification of the capital asset pricing model that includes the financial obligations ratio as a ``conditioning down" variable. The key finding is that there is an aggregate hedging demand for securities that pay off in periods characterized by higher levels of financial obligations ratios. The consistent pricing of financial obligations risk with a negative risk premium suggests that the financial obligations ratio acts as a state variable.
In the first essay, I investigate how household financial obligations affect the equity premium. I modify the standard Mehra-Prescott (1985) consumption-based asset pricing model to resolve the equity risk premium puzzle. I focus on two channels: the preference channel and the borrowing constraints channel. Under reasonable parameterizations, my model generates equity risk premiums similar in magnitudes to those observed in U.S. data. Furthermore, I show that relaxing the borrowing constraint shrinks the equity risk premium.
In the Second essay, I test the predictability of excess market returns using the household financial obligations ratio. I show that deviations in the household financial obligations ratio from its long-run mean is a better forecaster of future market returns than alternative prediction variables. The results remain significant using either quarterly or annual data and are robust to out-of-sample tests.
In the third essay, I investigate whether the risk associated with household financial obligations is an economy-wide risk with the potential to explain fluctuations in the cross-section of stock returns. The multifactor model I propose, is a modification of the capital asset pricing model that includes the financial obligations ratio as a ``conditioning down" variable. The key finding is that there is an aggregate hedging demand for securities that pay off in periods characterized by higher levels of financial obligations ratios. The consistent pricing of financial obligations risk with a negative risk premium suggests that the financial obligations ratio acts as a state variable.
ContributorsJahangiry, Pedram (Author) / Mehra, Rajnish (Thesis advisor) / Wahal, Sunil (Committee member) / Reffett, Kevin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017