Matching Items (10)

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Using Generalized Linear Models to Develop Loss Triangles in Reserving

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The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most popular models belong to what Glen Barnett and Ben Zehnwirth

The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most popular models belong to what Glen Barnett and Ben Zehnwirth in "Best Estimates for Reserves" call the "extended link ratio family (ELRF)," as they are developed from the chain ladder algorithm used by actuaries to estimate unpaid claims. Although these models are intuitive and easy to implement, they are nevertheless flawed because many of the assumptions behind the models do not hold true when fitted with real-world data. Even more problematically, the ELRF cannot account for environmental changes like inflation which are often observed in the status quo. Barnett and Zehnwirth conclude that a new set of models that contain parameters for not only accident year and development period trends but also payment year trends would be a more accurate predictor of loss development. This research applies the paper's ideas to data gathered by Company XYZ. The data was fitted with an adapted version of Barnett and Zehnwirth's new model in R, and a trend selection algorithm was developed to accompany the regression code. The final forecasts were compared to Company XYZ's booked reserves to evaluate the predictive power of the model.

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2018-05

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Linear Modeling for Insurance Ratemaking/Reserving: Modeling Loss Development Factors for Catastrophe Claims

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Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.

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2018-05

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A Guide to Financial Mathematics

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A Guide to Financial Mathematics is a comprehensive and easy-to-use study guide for students studying for the one of the first actuarial exams, Exam FM. While there are many resources available to students to study for these exams, this study

A Guide to Financial Mathematics is a comprehensive and easy-to-use study guide for students studying for the one of the first actuarial exams, Exam FM. While there are many resources available to students to study for these exams, this study is free to the students and offers an approach to the material similar to that of which is presented in class at ASU. The guide is available to students and professors in the new Actuarial Science degree program offered by ASU. There are twelve chapters, including financial calculator tips, detailed notes, examples, and practice exercises. Included at the end of the guide is a list of referenced material.

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2015-05

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Homeward Bound: An Overview of Continuing Care at Home

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AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting

AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives. Now, the emergence of the continuing care at home program is providing hope for a different method of elder care moving forward. CCaH programs offer services such as: skilled nursing care, care coordination, emergency response systems, aid with personal and health care, and transportation. Such services allow seniors to continue to live in their own home with assistance as their health deteriorates over time. Currently, only 30 CCaH programs exist. With the growth of the elderly population in the coming years, this model seems poised for growth.

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2019-05

Gilded Pastures

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This expository thesis explores the financial health and actuarial analysis of a particular solution for those seeking stability and security in their golden years: the CCRC industry. A continuing care retirement community, or CCRC, is a comprehensive project and campus

This expository thesis explores the financial health and actuarial analysis of a particular solution for those seeking stability and security in their golden years: the CCRC industry. A continuing care retirement community, or CCRC, is a comprehensive project and campus that offers its residents a full spectrum of care from independent living, to assisted living, to skilled nursing. After reading this paper, any person with no prior knowledge of a continuing care retirement community should gain a firm understanding of the background, risks and benefits, and legislative safeguards of this complex industry. Financially, a CCRC operates in some aspects similar to long-term care (LTC) insurance. However, CCRCs provide multiple levels of care operations while maintaining a pleasant, engaging community environment where seniors can have all their lifestyle needs met. The expensive and complex operations of a CCRC are not without risk: the industry has seen marked periods of bankruptcy followed by increasing and changing regulatory oversight. Thus, CCRCs require a periodic actuarial analysis and report, among array of other legislative safeguards against bankruptcy. A CCRC's insolvency or inability to meet its obligations can be catastrophic and inflict suffering and damages not only to its residents but also their friends and families. With seniors historically being one of the most vulnerable demographic groups, it is absolutely essential that an all-encompassing care facility continues to exist and fulfill its contractual promises by maintaining sound actuarial practices and financial health. This thesis, in addition to providing an exposition of the background and functions of the CCRC, describes the existing actuarial and financial studies and audits in practice to ensure sound governance and the quality of life of CCRC residents.

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2017-05

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Chi-square orthogonal components for assessing goodness-of-fit of multidimensional multinomial data

Description

It is common in the analysis of data to provide a goodness-of-fit test to assess the performance of a model. In the analysis of contingency tables, goodness-of-fit statistics are frequently employed when modeling social science, educational or psychological data where

It is common in the analysis of data to provide a goodness-of-fit test to assess the performance of a model. In the analysis of contingency tables, goodness-of-fit statistics are frequently employed when modeling social science, educational or psychological data where the interest is often directed at investigating the association among multi-categorical variables. Pearson's chi-squared statistic is well-known in goodness-of-fit testing, but it is sometimes considered to produce an omnibus test as it gives little guidance to the source of poor fit once the null hypothesis is rejected. However, its components can provide powerful directional tests. In this dissertation, orthogonal components are used to develop goodness-of-fit tests for models fit to the counts obtained from the cross-classification of multi-category dependent variables. Ordinal categories are assumed. Orthogonal components defined on marginals are obtained when analyzing multi-dimensional contingency tables through the use of the QR decomposition. A subset of these orthogonal components can be used to construct limited-information tests that allow one to identify the source of lack-of-fit and provide an increase in power compared to Pearson's test. These tests can address the adverse effects presented when data are sparse. The tests rely on the set of first- and second-order marginals jointly, the set of second-order marginals only, and the random forest method, a popular algorithm for modeling large complex data sets. The performance of these tests is compared to the likelihood ratio test as well as to tests based on orthogonal polynomial components. The derived goodness-of-fit tests are evaluated with studies for detecting two- and three-way associations that are not accounted for by a categorical variable factor model with a single latent variable. In addition the tests are used to investigate the case when the model misspecification involves parameter constraints for large and sparse contingency tables. The methodology proposed here is applied to data from the 38th round of the State Survey conducted by the Institute for Public Policy and Michigan State University Social Research (2005) . The results illustrate the use of the proposed techniques in the context of a sparse data set.

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2011

The Impact of Substance Use Disorders in Healthcare

Description

Substance use disorders account for billions of dollars annually in emergency and inpatient healthcare, not taking into account the healthcare costs of the disorders with which substance use disorders are associated with increased risks of developing. However, while treatment for

Substance use disorders account for billions of dollars annually in emergency and inpatient healthcare, not taking into account the healthcare costs of the disorders with which substance use disorders are associated with increased risks of developing. However, while treatment for these disorders shows a decreasing action on health costs, a low percentage of affected individuals receive treatment, despite many insurance payers providing coverage for treatments of this nature. Thus, this maintains the issues under the current healthcare system of mitigatable, generally higher, healthcare costs and increased health risks for individuals with substance use disorders.

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2022-05

To Retire or Not to Retire: Will pension plans keep their promise when the time comes?

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Of the many retirement savings options available, defined benefit pension plans were once a retirement income staple. Due to the highs and lows of the economic cycle, defined benefit pension plans have become severely underfunded. A series of inadequate contributions,

Of the many retirement savings options available, defined benefit pension plans were once a retirement income staple. Due to the highs and lows of the economic cycle, defined benefit pension plans have become severely underfunded. A series of inadequate contributions, enabled by weak funding and risk management policies, poses uncertainty for the retirement of many. The cost of paying pension benefits rises as defined benefit pension plans become increasingly underfunded, burdening the employers who continue to pay them. However, without increasing these already unaffordable pension benefits alongside inflation, they become less valuable to retirees. As pension benefits lose their value and the costs of retirement, such as healthcare and assisted living, increase, defined benefit pension plans may not provide the retirement security that was once promised.

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2022-05

US Healthcare's Spending Problem: A Deep Dive into Why Americans Pay More for Treatment without Better Outcomes

Description

The United States spends far more on healthcare than other developed countries, and it is increasing at a rapid pace that places intense financial pressure on the American public. The high levels of spending are not attributable to increased quality

The United States spends far more on healthcare than other developed countries, and it is increasing at a rapid pace that places intense financial pressure on the American public. The high levels of spending are not attributable to increased quality of care or a healthier general population. Rather, the culprits are a combination of uniquely American social and cultural factors that increase the prevalence of chronic illness coupled with a large and complex healthcare industry that has a multitude of stakeholders, each with their own motivations and expense margins that inflate prices. Additionally, rampant lack of transparency, overutilization and low-quality care contribute to unnecessarily frequent and expensive payments. Public and private institutions have implemented legislation and programs that provide temporary relief, but powerful lobbying efforts by healthcare-related organizations and a general American aversion to high government involvement have prevented the United States from creating effective, long-lasting reform.

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2022-05

Automating by Developing Model Components for the Insurance Ratemaking Actuarial Procedures

Description

The objective of this study is to build a model using R and RStudio that automates ratemaking procedures for Company XYZ’s actuaries in their commercial general liability pricing department. The purpose and importance of this objective is to allow actuaries

The objective of this study is to build a model using R and RStudio that automates ratemaking procedures for Company XYZ’s actuaries in their commercial general liability pricing department. The purpose and importance of this objective is to allow actuaries to work more efficiently and effectively by using this model that outputs the results they otherwise would have had to code and calculate on their own. Instead of spending time working towards these results, the actuaries can analyze the findings, strategize accordingly, and communicate with business partners. The model was built from R code that was later transformed to Shiny, a package within RStudio that allows for the build-up of interactive web applications. The final result is a Shiny app that first takes in multiple datasets from Company XYZ’s data warehouse and displays different views of the data in order for actuaries to make selections on development and trend methods. The app outputs the re-created ratemaking exhibits showing the resulting developed and trended loss and premium as well as the experience-based indicated rate level change based on prior selections. The ratemaking process and Shiny app functionality will be detailed in this report.

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2022-05