Matching Items (77)
Description
The primary objective in time series analysis is forecasting. Raw data often exhibits nonstationary behavior: trends, seasonal cycles, and heteroskedasticity. After data is transformed to a weakly stationary process, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models may capture the remaining temporal dynamics to improve forecasting. Estimation of ARMA can be performed through regressing current values on previous realizations and proxy innovations. The classic paradigm fails when dynamics are nonlinear; in this case, parametric, regime-switching specifications model changes in level, ARMA dynamics, and volatility, using a finite number of latent states. If the states can be identified using past endogenous or exogenous information, a threshold autoregressive (TAR) or logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model may simplify complex nonlinear associations to conditional weakly stationary processes. For ARMA, TAR, and STAR, order parameters quantify the extent past information is associated with the future. Unfortunately, even if model orders are known a priori, the possibility of over-fitting can lead to sub-optimal forecasting performance. By intentionally overestimating these orders, a linear representation of the full model is exploited and Bayesian regularization can be used to achieve sparsity. Global-local shrinkage priors for AR, MA, and exogenous coefficients are adopted to pull posterior means toward 0 without over-shrinking relevant effects. This dissertation introduces, evaluates, and compares Bayesian techniques that automatically perform model selection and coefficient estimation of ARMA, TAR, and STAR models. Multiple Monte Carlo experiments illustrate the accuracy of these methods in finding the "true" data generating process. Practical applications demonstrate their efficacy in forecasting.
ContributorsGiacomazzo, Mario (Author) / Kamarianakis, Yiannis (Thesis advisor) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Hahn, Richard (Committee member) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation investigates the classification of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the presence of non-SLE alternatives, while developing novel curve classification methodologies with wide ranging applications. Functional data representations of plasma thermogram measurements and the corresponding derivative curves provide predictors yet to be investigated for SLE identification. Functional nonparametric classifiers form a methodological basis, which is used herein to develop a) the family of ESFuNC segment-wise curve classification algorithms and b) per-pixel ensembles based on logistic regression and fused-LASSO. The proposed methods achieve test set accuracy rates as high as 94.3%, while returning information about regions of the temperature domain that are critical for population discrimination. The undertaken analyses suggest that derivate-based information contributes significantly in improved classification performance relative to recently published studies on SLE plasma thermograms.
ContributorsBuscaglia, Robert, Ph.D (Author) / Kamarianakis, Yiannis (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicholas (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
In this work, I present a Bayesian inference computational framework for the analysis of widefield microscopy data that addresses three challenges: (1) counting and localizing stationary fluorescent molecules; (2) inferring a spatially-dependent effective fluorescence profile that describes the spatially-varying rate at which fluorescent molecules emit subsequently-detected photons (due to different illumination intensities or different local environments); and (3) inferring the camera gain. My general theoretical framework utilizes the Bayesian nonparametric Gaussian and beta-Bernoulli processes with a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme, which I further specify and implement for Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence (TIRF) microscopy data, benchmarking the method on synthetic data. These three frameworks are self-contained, and can be used concurrently so that the fluorescence profile and emitter locations are both considered unknown and, under some conditions, learned simultaneously. The framework I present is flexible and may be adapted to accommodate the inference of other parameters, such as emission photophysical kinetics and the trajectories of moving molecules. My TIRF-specific implementation may find use in the study of structures on cell membranes, or in studying local sample properties that affect fluorescent molecule photon emission rates.
ContributorsWallgren, Ross (Author) / Presse, Steve (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Hans (Thesis advisor) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a non-parametric Bayesian model
that often outperforms other popular predictive models in terms of out-of-sample error. This thesis studies a modified version of BART called Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (XBART). The study consists of simulation and real data experiments comparing XBART to other leading algorithms, including BART. The results show that XBART maintains BART’s predictive power while reducing its computation time. The thesis also describes the development of a Python package implementing XBART.
that often outperforms other popular predictive models in terms of out-of-sample error. This thesis studies a modified version of BART called Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (XBART). The study consists of simulation and real data experiments comparing XBART to other leading algorithms, including BART. The results show that XBART maintains BART’s predictive power while reducing its computation time. The thesis also describes the development of a Python package implementing XBART.
ContributorsYalov, Saar (Author) / Hahn, P. Richard (Thesis advisor) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The current trend of interconnected devices, or the internet of things (IOT) has led to the popularization of single board computers (SBC). This is primarily due to their form-factor and low price. This has led to unique networks of devices that can have unstable network connections and minimal processing power. Many parallel program- ming libraries are intended for use in high performance computing (HPC) clusters. Unlike the IOT environment described, HPC clusters will in general look to obtain very consistent network speeds and topologies. There are a significant number of software choices that make up what is referred to as the HPC stack or parallel processing stack. My thesis focused on building an HPC stack that would run on the SCB computer name the Raspberry Pi. The intention in making this Raspberry Pi cluster is to research performance of MPI implementations in an IOT environment, which had an impact on the design choices of the cluster. This thesis is a compilation of my research efforts in creating this cluster as well as an evaluation of the software that was chosen to create the parallel processing stack.
ContributorsO'Meara, Braedon Richard (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Dasgupta, Partha (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The original version of Helix, the one I pitched when first deciding to make a video game
for my thesis, is an action-platformer, with the intent of metroidvania-style progression
and an interconnected world map.
The current version of Helix is a turn based role-playing game, with the intent of roguelike
gameplay and a dark fantasy theme. We will first be exploring the challenges that came
with programming my own game - not quite from scratch, but also without a prebuilt
engine - then transition into game design and how Helix has evolved from its original form
to what we see today.
for my thesis, is an action-platformer, with the intent of metroidvania-style progression
and an interconnected world map.
The current version of Helix is a turn based role-playing game, with the intent of roguelike
gameplay and a dark fantasy theme. We will first be exploring the challenges that came
with programming my own game - not quite from scratch, but also without a prebuilt
engine - then transition into game design and how Helix has evolved from its original form
to what we see today.
ContributorsDiscipulo, Isaiah K (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Kobayashi, Yoshihiro (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
RecyclePlus is an iOS mobile application that allows users to be knowledgeable in the realms of sustainability. It gives encourages users to be environmental responsible by providing them access to recycling information. In particular, it allows users to search up certain materials and learn about its recyclability and how to properly dispose of the material. Some searches will show locations of facilities near users that collect certain materials and dispose of the materials properly. This is a full stack software project that explores open source software and APIs, UI/UX design, and iOS development.
ContributorsTran, Nikki (Author) / Ganesh, Tirupalavanam (Thesis director) / Meuth, Ryan (Committee member) / Watts College of Public Service & Community Solut (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
This thesis dives into the world of artificial intelligence by exploring the functionality of a single layer artificial neural network through a simple housing price classification example while simultaneously considering its impact from a data management perspective on both the software and hardware level. To begin this study, the universally accepted model of an artificial neuron is broken down into its key components and then analyzed for functionality by relating back to its biological counterpart. The role of a neuron is then described in the context of a neural network, with equal emphasis placed on how it individually undergoes training and then for an entire network. Using the technique of supervised learning, the neural network is trained with three main factors for housing price classification, including its total number of rooms, bathrooms, and square footage. Once trained with most of the generated data set, it is tested for accuracy by introducing the remainder of the data-set and observing how closely its computed output for each set of inputs compares to the target value. From a programming perspective, the artificial neuron is implemented in C so that it would be more closely tied to the operating system and therefore make the collected profiler data more precise during the program's execution. The program is designed to break down each stage of the neuron's training process into distinct functions. In addition to utilizing more functional code, the struct data type is used as the underlying data structure for this project to not only represent the neuron but for implementing the neuron's training and test data. Once fully trained, the neuron's test results are then graphed to visually depict how well the neuron learned from its sample training set. Finally, the profiler data is analyzed to describe how the program operated from a data management perspective on the software and hardware level.
ContributorsRichards, Nicholas Giovanni (Author) / Miller, Phillip (Thesis director) / Meuth, Ryan (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
As the need for data concerning the health of the world's oceans increases, it becomes necessary to develop large, networked communication systems underwater. This research involves the development of an embedded operating system that is suited for optically-linked underwater wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Optical WSNs are unique in that large sums of data may be received relatively infrequently, and so an operating system for each node must be very responsive. Additionally, the volatile nature of the underwater environment means that the operating system must be accurate, while still maintaining a low profile on a relatively small microprocessor core. The first part of this research concerns the actual implementation of the operating system's task scheduler and additional libraries to maintain synchronization, and the second part involves testing the operating system for responsiveness to interrupts and overall performance.
ContributorsTueller, Peter Michael (Author) / Youngbull, Cody (Thesis director) / Meuth, Ryan (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Bioscience High School, a small magnet high school located in Downtown Phoenix and a STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, Math) focused school, has been pushing to establish a computer science curriculum for all of their students from freshman to senior year. The school's Mision (Mission and Vision) is to: "..provide a rigorous, collaborative, and relevant academic program emphasizing an innovative, problem-based curriculum that develops literacy in the sciences, mathematics, and the arts, thus cultivating critical thinkers, creative problem-solvers, and compassionate citizens, who are able to thrive in our increasingly complex and technological communities." Computational thinking is an important part in developing a future problem solver Bioscience High School is looking to produce. Bioscience High School is unique in the fact that every student has a computer available for him or her to use. Therefore, it makes complete sense for the school to add computer science to their curriculum because one of the school's goals is to be able to utilize their resources to their full potential. However, the school's attempt at computer science integration falls short due to the lack of expertise amongst the math and science teachers. The lack of training and support has postponed the development of the program and they are desperately in need of someone with expertise in the field to help reboot the program. As a result, I've decided to create a course that is focused on teaching students the concepts of computational thinking and its application through Scratch and Arduino programming.
ContributorsLiu, Deming (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Nakamura, Mutsumi (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05