Matching Items (8)

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Comparison of Regression and Tree Analyses for Predicting Alcohol-Related Problems

Description

Problems related to alcohol consumption cause not only extra economic expenses, but are an expense to the health of both drinkers and non-drinkers due to the harm directly and indirectly

Problems related to alcohol consumption cause not only extra economic expenses, but are an expense to the health of both drinkers and non-drinkers due to the harm directly and indirectly caused by alcohol consumption. Investigating predictors and reasons for alcohol-related problems is of importance, as alcohol-related problems could be prevented by quitting or limiting consumption of alcohol. We were interested in predicting alcohol-related problems using multiple linear regression and regression trees, and then comparing the regressions to the tree. Impaired control, anxiety sensitivity, mother permissiveness, father permissiveness, gender, and age were included as predictors. The data used was comprised of participants (n=835) sampled from students at Arizona State University. A multiple linear regression without interactions, multiple linear regression with two-way interactions and squares, and a regression tree were used and compared. The regression and the tree had similar results. Multiple interactions of variables predicted alcohol-related problems. Overall, the tree was easier to interpret than the regressions, however, the regressions provided specific predicted alcohol-related problems scores, whereas the tree formed large groups and had a predicted alcohol-related problems score for each group. Nevertheless, the tree still predicted alcohol-related problems nearly as well, if not better than the regressions.

Contributors

Agent

Created

Date Created
  • 2016-12

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Utilizing Machine Learning Methods to Model Cryptocurrency

Description

Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods

Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries with missing data. The new column is created to measure price difference to create a more accurate analysis on the change in price. Eight relevant variables are selected using cross validation: the total number of bitcoins, the total size of the blockchains, the hash rate, mining difficulty, revenue from mining, transaction fees, the cost of transactions and the estimated transaction volume. The in-sample data is modeled using a simple tree fit, first with one variable and then with eight. Using all eight variables, the in-sample model and data have a correlation of 0.6822657. The in-sample model is improved by first applying bootstrap aggregation (also known as bagging) to fit 400 decision trees to the in-sample data using one variable. Then the random forests technique is applied to the data using all eight variables. This results in a correlation between the model and data of 9.9443413. The random forests technique is then applied to an Ethereum dataset, resulting in a correlation of 9.6904798. Finally, an out-of-sample model is created for Bitcoin and Ethereum using random forests, with a benchmark correlation of 0.03 for financial data. The correlation between the training model and the testing data for Bitcoin was 0.06957639, while for Ethereum the correlation was -0.171125. In conclusion, it is confirmed that cryptocurrencies can have accurate in-sample models by applying the random forests method to a dataset. However, out-of-sample modeling is more difficult, but in some cases better than typical forms of financial data. It should also be noted that cryptocurrency data has similar properties to other related financial datasets, realizing future potential for system modeling for cryptocurrency within the financial world.

Contributors

Agent

Created

Date Created
  • 2018-05

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A study of accelerated Bayesian additive regression trees

Description

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a non-parametric Bayesian model

that often outperforms other popular predictive models in terms of out-of-sample error. This thesis studies a modified version of BART called

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a non-parametric Bayesian model

that often outperforms other popular predictive models in terms of out-of-sample error. This thesis studies a modified version of BART called Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (XBART). The study consists of simulation and real data experiments comparing XBART to other leading algorithms, including BART. The results show that XBART maintains BART’s predictive power while reducing its computation time. The thesis also describes the development of a Python package implementing XBART.

Contributors

Agent

Created

Date Created
  • 2019

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An information based optimal subdata selection algorithm for big data linear regression and a suitable variable selection algorithm

Description

This article proposes a new information-based subdata selection (IBOSS) algorithm, Squared Scaled Distance Algorithm (SSDA). It is based on the invariance of the determinant of the information matrix under orthogonal

This article proposes a new information-based subdata selection (IBOSS) algorithm, Squared Scaled Distance Algorithm (SSDA). It is based on the invariance of the determinant of the information matrix under orthogonal transformations, especially rotations. Extensive simulation results show that the new IBOSS algorithm retains nice asymptotic properties of IBOSS and gives a larger determinant of the subdata information matrix. It has the same order of time complexity as the D-optimal IBOSS algorithm. However, it exploits the advantages of vectorized calculation avoiding for loops and is approximately 6 times as fast as the D-optimal IBOSS algorithm in R. The robustness of SSDA is studied from three aspects: nonorthogonality, including interaction terms and variable misspecification. A new accurate variable selection algorithm is proposed to help the implementation of IBOSS algorithms when a large number of variables are present with sparse important variables among them. Aggregating random subsample results, this variable selection algorithm is much more accurate than the LASSO method using full data. Since the time complexity is associated with the number of variables only, it is also very computationally efficient if the number of variables is fixed as n increases and not massively large. More importantly, using subsamples it solves the problem that full data cannot be stored in the memory when a data set is too large.

Contributors

Agent

Created

Date Created
  • 2017

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Spatial Regression and Gaussian Process BART

Description

Spatial regression is one of the central topics in spatial statistics. Based on the goals, interpretation or prediction, spatial regression models can be classified into two categories, linear mixed regression

Spatial regression is one of the central topics in spatial statistics. Based on the goals, interpretation or prediction, spatial regression models can be classified into two categories, linear mixed regression models and nonlinear regression models. This dissertation explored these models and their real world applications. New methods and models were proposed to overcome the challenges in practice. There are three major parts in the dissertation.

In the first part, nonlinear regression models were embedded into a multistage workflow to predict the spatial abundance of reef fish species in the Gulf of Mexico. There were two challenges, zero-inflated data and out of sample prediction. The methods and models in the workflow could effectively handle the zero-inflated sampling data without strong assumptions. Three strategies were proposed to solve the out of sample prediction problem. The results and discussions showed that the nonlinear prediction had the advantages of high accuracy, low bias and well-performed in multi-resolution.

In the second part, a two-stage spatial regression model was proposed for analyzing soil carbon stock (SOC) data. In the first stage, there was a spatial linear mixed model that captured the linear and stationary effects. In the second stage, a generalized additive model was used to explain the nonlinear and nonstationary effects. The results illustrated that the two-stage model had good interpretability in understanding the effect of covariates, meanwhile, it kept high prediction accuracy which is competitive to the popular machine learning models, like, random forest, xgboost and support vector machine.

A new nonlinear regression model, Gaussian process BART (Bayesian additive regression tree), was proposed in the third part. Combining advantages in both BART and Gaussian process, the model could capture the nonlinear effects of both observed and latent covariates. To develop the model, first, the traditional BART was generalized to accommodate correlated errors. Then, the failure of likelihood based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in parameter estimating was discussed. Based on the idea of analysis of variation, back comparing and tuning range, were proposed to tackle this failure. Finally, effectiveness of the new model was examined by experiments on both simulation and real data.

Contributors

Agent

Created

Date Created
  • 2020

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Bayesian Inference Frameworks for Fluorescence Microscopy Data Analysis

Description

In this work, I present a Bayesian inference computational framework for the analysis of widefield microscopy data that addresses three challenges: (1) counting and localizing stationary fluorescent molecules; (2) inferring

In this work, I present a Bayesian inference computational framework for the analysis of widefield microscopy data that addresses three challenges: (1) counting and localizing stationary fluorescent molecules; (2) inferring a spatially-dependent effective fluorescence profile that describes the spatially-varying rate at which fluorescent molecules emit subsequently-detected photons (due to different illumination intensities or different local environments); and (3) inferring the camera gain. My general theoretical framework utilizes the Bayesian nonparametric Gaussian and beta-Bernoulli processes with a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme, which I further specify and implement for Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence (TIRF) microscopy data, benchmarking the method on synthetic data. These three frameworks are self-contained, and can be used concurrently so that the fluorescence profile and emitter locations are both considered unknown and, under some conditions, learned simultaneously. The framework I present is flexible and may be adapted to accommodate the inference of other parameters, such as emission photophysical kinetics and the trajectories of moving molecules. My TIRF-specific implementation may find use in the study of structures on cell membranes, or in studying local sample properties that affect fluorescent molecule photon emission rates.

Contributors

Agent

Created

Date Created
  • 2019

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Three essays on shrinkage estimation and model selection of linear and nonlinear time series models

Description

The primary objective in time series analysis is forecasting. Raw data often exhibits nonstationary behavior: trends, seasonal cycles, and heteroskedasticity. After data is transformed to a weakly stationary process,

The primary objective in time series analysis is forecasting. Raw data often exhibits nonstationary behavior: trends, seasonal cycles, and heteroskedasticity. After data is transformed to a weakly stationary process, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models may capture the remaining temporal dynamics to improve forecasting. Estimation of ARMA can be performed through regressing current values on previous realizations and proxy innovations. The classic paradigm fails when dynamics are nonlinear; in this case, parametric, regime-switching specifications model changes in level, ARMA dynamics, and volatility, using a finite number of latent states. If the states can be identified using past endogenous or exogenous information, a threshold autoregressive (TAR) or logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model may simplify complex nonlinear associations to conditional weakly stationary processes. For ARMA, TAR, and STAR, order parameters quantify the extent past information is associated with the future. Unfortunately, even if model orders are known a priori, the possibility of over-fitting can lead to sub-optimal forecasting performance. By intentionally overestimating these orders, a linear representation of the full model is exploited and Bayesian regularization can be used to achieve sparsity. Global-local shrinkage priors for AR, MA, and exogenous coefficients are adopted to pull posterior means toward 0 without over-shrinking relevant effects. This dissertation introduces, evaluates, and compares Bayesian techniques that automatically perform model selection and coefficient estimation of ARMA, TAR, and STAR models. Multiple Monte Carlo experiments illustrate the accuracy of these methods in finding the "true" data generating process. Practical applications demonstrate their efficacy in forecasting.

Contributors

Agent

Created

Date Created
  • 2018

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Supervised and ensemble classification of multivariate functional data: applications to lupus diagnosis

Description

This dissertation investigates the classification of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the presence of non-SLE alternatives, while developing novel curve classification methodologies with wide ranging applications. Functional data representations

This dissertation investigates the classification of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the presence of non-SLE alternatives, while developing novel curve classification methodologies with wide ranging applications. Functional data representations of plasma thermogram measurements and the corresponding derivative curves provide predictors yet to be investigated for SLE identification. Functional nonparametric classifiers form a methodological basis, which is used herein to develop a) the family of ESFuNC segment-wise curve classification algorithms and b) per-pixel ensembles based on logistic regression and fused-LASSO. The proposed methods achieve test set accuracy rates as high as 94.3%, while returning information about regions of the temperature domain that are critical for population discrimination. The undertaken analyses suggest that derivate-based information contributes significantly in improved classification performance relative to recently published studies on SLE plasma thermograms.

Contributors

Agent

Created

Date Created
  • 2018