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Sensitivity of simulated CO2 concentration to sub-annual variations in fossil fuel CO2 emissions

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Recent advances in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] (FFCO[subscript 2]) emission inventories enable sensitivity tests of simulated atmospheric CO[subscript 2] concentrations to sub-annual variations in FFCO[subscript 2] emissions and what this

Recent advances in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] (FFCO[subscript 2]) emission inventories enable sensitivity tests of simulated atmospheric CO[subscript 2] concentrations to sub-annual variations in FFCO[subscript 2] emissions and what this implies for the interpretation of observed CO[subscript 2]. Six experiments are conducted to investigate the potential impact of three cycles of FFCO[subscript 2] emission variability (diurnal, weekly and monthly) using a global tracer transport model. Results show an annual FFCO[subscript 2] rectification varying from −1.35 to +0.13 ppm from the combination of all three cycles. This rectification is driven by a large negative diurnal FFCO[subscript 2] rectification due to the covariation of diurnal FFCO[subscript 2] emissions and diurnal vertical mixing, as well as a smaller positive seasonal FFCO[subscript 2] rectification driven by the covariation of monthly FFCO[subscript 2] emissions and monthly atmospheric transport. The diurnal FFCO[subscript 2] emissions are responsible for a diurnal FFCO[subscript 2] concentration amplitude of up to 9.12 ppm at the grid cell scale. Similarly, the monthly FFCO[subscript 2] emissions are responsible for a simulated seasonal CO[subscript 2] amplitude of up to 6.11 ppm at the grid cell scale. The impact of the diurnal FFCO[subscript 2] emissions, when only sampled in the local afternoon, is also important, causing an increase of +1.13 ppmv at the grid cell scale. The simulated CO[subscript 2] concentration impacts from the diurnally and seasonally varying FFCO[subscript 2] emissions are centered over large source regions in the Northern Hemisphere, extending to downwind regions. This study demonstrates the influence of sub-annual variations in FFCO[subscript 2] emissions on simulated CO[subscript 2] concentration and suggests that inversion studies must take account of these variations in the affected regions.

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  • 2016-02-19