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融资约束、企业创新与流动性管理研究—基于中国军工板块上市企业的实证研究

Description

2008年金融危机以来,全球一大批企业因现金流短缺而破产或濒临破产,流动性短缺由金融机构蔓延至实体经济,给企业的正常运转造成巨大冲击,致使企业陷入资金紧张、融资困难的境地。在此情况下,持有适量现金对企业而言就显得尤为重要,本文也发现经济总量居世界前二的中美两国,其本土企业的现金持有水平逐年上升。

然而,企业持有现金规模的上升也会导致两大问题的产生:第一,持有较多的现金就意味着必须削减当期投资支出,在未来投资机会存在较大不确定性的情况下,这种持币等待会加大公司的经营风险,并限制公司的成长能力;第二,由于现金是最容易被侵占和攫取的资产,高额现金持有可能成为经理人获取私利或大股东掏空的猎物,从而引发了高昂的代理成本。在军民融合这一国家战略背景下,对于转型阶段的中国军工企业而言,上述两大矛盾在这一轮改革红利中也显得尤为突出。军工企业作为我国国防建设和经济建设的一员大将,是我国国防的重要支撑,承担着为人民军队和民兵提供各种所需武器装备和民品的重要任务。而技术创新是军工企业赖以生存的原动力,失去了技术创新的军工企业将给国家带来无法估量的灾难。但是军工企业的创新活动需要大量的资金支持,中小型军工企业因融资约束问题所导致的研发投入少、创新水平低在当下便显得较为严峻。

基于以上理论与现实背景,本文对我国军工上市企业的融资约束、流动性管理与企业创新等问题进行了深入研究,结果发现:(1)军工企业的融资约束与公司现金持有水平间具有显著的正向关联性,融资约束程度越高,企业持有现金及其等价物越多;(2)样本企业的融资约束问题也抑制了研发投入,融资约束程度越高,研发投入的资金越少;(3)通过调节效应模型,作者检验并证实了样本中企业持有更多的现金及其等价物可有效改善融资约束对研发投入的负向抑制作用。最后,根据本文实证得出的结论,并考虑到中国军工行业的发展现状,提出了相应的政策建议以缓解融资约束对军工企业的负面影响。

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  • 2020

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中国光伏电站投资估值分析及投资决策方法研究

Description

中国光伏市场大发展起步于2009年,经过近10年快速发展,已经成为全球第一大光伏发电设备制造和光伏发电应用国家。但随着光伏产业发展,并网消纳、低价竞争、政策波动等问题造成的影响越来越大,光伏电站资产收益的不确定性越来越高,使企业参与光伏产业积极性不断下降,国家制定相关政策也缺乏依据,光伏产业发展进入瓶颈期。

光伏电站资产价值的准确评估越来越难,一方面源于光伏设备价格的调整周期越来越短、光伏补贴的政策调整速度不断加快;另一方面也因为光伏发电受自然条件、设备条件、政策条件等各种因素影响,有较高的不确定性。这些不确定性形成了光伏电站资产,乃至类似相关的新兴产业,投资价值评估的特殊性。同时光伏电站资产又具有初始投资大,项目回收期长等因素,也增加了光伏电站资产评估的复杂性。

当前在光伏电站资产价值评估所使用的方法包括净现值法、回收期法、内部收益率等,在投资决策中也包含实物期权评估等方法。这些方法在光伏电站资产评估中各有特点,本论文将结合实际案例经验,对这些评估方法进行分析,验证评估方法的有效性,并提出提升光伏电站资产估值准确性及投资决策流程的建议 。

对以光伏为代表的新兴战略行业资产投资价值分析研究, 不仅能够为企业提供参与类似产业投资决策提供帮助,对国家制定相应新兴产业支持政策以也有重要借鉴价值。

关键词: 光伏电站估值 光伏电站投资 实物期权 投资决策流程 决策优化方法

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  • 2020

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从上市公司股权质押行为分析企业的潜在风险和公司治理

Description

我国上市公司股东采取股权质押贷款方式融资非常普遍,股权质押贷款总余额已经高达5.70万亿元,这些贷款背后隐藏着巨大的风险。上市公司大股东采用股权质押贷款的动机可能是对未来乐观行业预期的资金需求,或者是由于股权转让的限制而采取的变相套现转移风险。后者的动机里本身就包含着上市公司大股东对自身股价已经估值过高的判断。本文通过分析上市公司股权质押贷款风险 (即,上市公司当年股价估值程度与上市公司下一年股价崩盘风险之间的关系)会因为股权质押动机的不同而存在差异。只有在套现动机下,当年股价估值程度才会导致下一年显著的股价崩盘风险,而在融资动机下当年股价估值程度与下一年股价崩盘风险之间的关系则呈现负相关。鉴于目前大多数上市公司并不会披露大股东质押所得资金的具体去向,本文通过融资约束程度这个维度对上市公司大股东股权质押的动机进行识别。当上市公司所受融资约束较低时,当年股价高估程度程度越大,下一年股价崩盘风险越大(正相关),上市公司进行股权质押的动机更倾向于高位套现。在融资约束程度高的情况下,上市公司股权质押更倾向于融资,当年股价估值程度越大,下一年上市公司股价崩盘风险越小(负相关)。 在大股东控制权高的情况下,对于所受融资约束程度低的上市公司,独立董事不论是比例高或者低,独立董事制度对大股东的股票质押的行为 (套现动机)无影响。 对于所受融资约束程度高的上市公司,独立董事在占比高时,对通过股票质押来融资的行为有强化作用,可以表现出其治理影响力,在独董占比低的情况下则无法产生作用。

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The Performance Effects of Cross-Industry Mergers and Acquisitions at Firms Listed in China’s Growth Enterprises Market

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This study investigates the performance effects of cross-industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A) using a sample of firms listed in China’s Growth Entrepreses Market (GEM). Compared to firms listed in the

This study investigates the performance effects of cross-industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A) using a sample of firms listed in China’s Growth Entrepreses Market (GEM). Compared to firms listed in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, firms listed in the GEM are much smaller and tend to derive the majority of their revenues from a single industry. I first analyze the motives for firms listed in the GEM to engage in M&As and propose a set of factors that may influence their likelihood of M&A activities. Using data on 55 cross-industry M&As between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2016, I find that investor generally responded positively in short-term, as indicated by the positive accumulated abonormal returns over the first five trading days following the announcements. Meanwhile, I found no evidence that investors benefited from cross-industry M&As in long-term over three years after the event. Further analysis suggests that the short-term effects of cross-industry M&As by GEM listed firms were influenced by the target firm’s market valuation, whether the M&A was paid by cash, the amount of the payment, and the degree of difference between the acquiring firm’s and the target firm’s industries. These findings have important implications for the investors and senior executives of firms listed in the GEM.

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  • 2018

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医疗器械产品差异度对市值的影响

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基于中国人口老龄化加速、目前人均医疗支出偏低和国内医疗器械企业以中低端产品

为主的局面,中国的医疗器械行业正面临着巨大的发展机遇,投融资活动将迎来爆发式增

长。 在此背景下, 医疗器械企业的估值研究对投融资双方都有较大的意义。

我们假设医疗器械公司的产品差异度对其公司的估值有正面影响。

产品差异度定义为:该产品区别于其他竞争性产品的独特性,由以下六个方面构成:

产品唯一性水平、先进性(器械类别、优秀国产医疗设备个数、产品的专利化程度)、利润

边际和其市场容量,并对此用 12 个指标做出了定量的估计。本研究主要的数据来源是上市

的医疗器械公司,因为这些公司的相关数据取得比较容易且数据客观性较强。我们使用一

般回归分析测量产品差异度与公司估值之间的关系。在得出正面的回归结果之后, 我们采

用双重差分分析(DID)方法,验证实际情形下新产品相关信息发布对公司股价波动的影响。

根据回归分析结果:

1、 “产生营收的产品唯一性水平”和“边际利润”与市值有显著相关性: 说明医疗器械

类企业确实是核心产品驱动发展的, 产品唯一性程度高(已剔除那些已逐渐被市场淘汰的

产品) 说明市场定价能力强, 边际利润率高,盈利能力强, 进而对公司估值形成正面影

响。

2、 “”净利润“和”“互联网概念”与市值也呈现显著相关性。净利润的相关性是显而易见

的。互联网概念的相关性体现了互联网+医疗成为近几年市场的风口。

iv

3、 其他一些指标未呈现明显的相关性,有可能是因为我们的数据量太少引起的, 也

有可能还有其他未在我们考虑范围内的因素导致的,也可能是因为中国目前的股票市场还

未到达半强式有效市场。这可能对其他行业的影响也是如此。

在后面进行的实证分析中, 除个别情况外,我们发现公司重磅新产品相关信息的发布

基本上对公司之后 1-30 个交易日的股价起到了较明显的推动作用。

关键词: 产品差异度 医疗器械行业 公司估值

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  • 2018

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香港IPO中超额配售选择权实际效用的实证研究

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本文采用2010年1月1日至2017年12月31日在香港主板IPO上市的共574家公司作为研究样本,系统采集包括与发行人、承销商、投资人、发行热度、市场每日交易数据等相关的数据近100项,对超额配售选择权在香港IPO中的实际效用进行实证研究,研究发现:1)超额配售选择的确可以起到提高发行价格,降低IPO抑价率的作用,但是同时也是破发的主要原因。2)由超额配售选择权赋予承销商稳价行为中,市场买入量越大,最大回撤越大,市场下跌风险越大同时超额配售选择权还导致了最大回撤日的推后,增大了稳价结束后的市场风险,而这很有可能是由于承销商追求更高利益造成的。3)没有证据显示,超额配售选择权会降低承销商的佣金比例,但是,超额配售选择权却为承销商带来非常高的额外收益,而这个收益与市场下跌幅度和承销商从市场购买股份的比例直接相关。

其中,本文首次对最大回撤率、最大回撤日与承销商市场买入量之间的关系进行实证研究,揭示了承销商市场买入量与承销商收益正相关,与最大回撤率负相关,与最大回撤日正相关的关系,可能是增加市场下跌风险的因素。这与现有理论中及监管机构的预期中,“超额配售选择权具有向上稳定价格的作用”是有一定偏差的。

根据研究结果,本文首先建议发行人要客观对待超额配售选择权提升发行价格的作用,以免引起破发。其次建议市场投资人要客观认识超额配售选择权的作用,不要由于超额配售选择权的存在给与发行过高的认同价格。再次建议发行人要能够认识到超额配售选择权是承销商零成本获得的一个有固定收益保障的看空期权,是承销商在承销IPO时的收益之一,而股价下跌幅度与承销商的收益正相关。因此要对承销商的稳价行为进行一定管控,同时可以因为超额配售选择权的存在而要求更低的承销佣金比例。最后建议承销商要维护市场公平,爱护自己的声誉,尽可能避免因超额配售选择权的使用对市场造成不应有的干扰。

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  • 2019

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A Study on Risk of Internet Finance Based on Industrial Economics

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Under the background of the "new normal" of China's economy and the contraction of traditional financial sector, the development of Internet finance provides new financing channels for SMEs and individual

Under the background of the "new normal" of China's economy and the contraction of traditional financial sector, the development of Internet finance provides new financing channels for SMEs and individual financial needs. But with rapid development of the Internet finance, the overall risk also appears gradually as well as the platform differentiation appears more evidently. China's Internet financial industry enters the stage of standardization development. In order to effectively prevent and resolve Internet financial risks and create a good internet financial environment, we need to identify the risk factors of Internet financial industry. Through reference carding of the existing literature, this paper proposes a research hypothesis that the industrial economic background is negatively related to the operating risk of the Internet financial platform. After descriptive statistical analysis of the current situation of the Internet financial industry in China, this paper collects 600 P2P net-lending platforms data manually, and uses Probit model to test the research hypothesis. Ceteris paribus, the result show that compared with the platform without industrial economic background, the risk probability of the industrial economic background platform will be reduced by 6.5 percentage points, and there is no regional difference in this result. This paper explains the result from two layers which are the relieving information asymmetry and the platform’s reputation mechanism. The study also finds that in addition to the industrial economic background, the P2P platform's registered capital, operation time, whether the platform funds have the corresponding third-party guarantee and the information disclosure of platform executives will significantly reduce business risk probability of the platforms. The above research conclusions also passed the robust test. Finally, this paper makes a case analysis of the two Internet Financial platforms in Suning Finance and Tuniu Finance, which have different industrial economic background and mode of operation. It also summarizes the risk control system.

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  • 2018

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The Incentive Effect of Valuation Adjustment Mechanism Agreement on Firms’ Ability to Meet Performance Commitments

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Valuation adjustment mechanism has been widely applied in acquisitions of listed companies in China today, and is usually agreed upon future financial performance indicators of acquired companies (mostly net income).

Valuation adjustment mechanism has been widely applied in acquisitions of listed companies in China today, and is usually agreed upon future financial performance indicators of acquired companies (mostly net income). This paper examines how changes of key contents of VAM agreement affect firms’ ability to meet performance commitments from the perspective of incentive effects. Empirical results show that as the performance goals set in VAM agreement becomes higher, the incentive for management to meet performance commitments will initially increase and then decrease, so that the ratio of actual profits to promised profits for target firms will reach peak at some reasonable performance goal and then decrease. Second, as the level of the information asymmetry between buyer and seller turns higher, the incentive effect of performance goals becomes lower. Third, compared with cash-based compensation, stock-based compensation shows significantly higher incentive effects on promisors thus increasing the ability for target firms to achieve performance commitments.

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  • 2018

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An Analysis of Firm’s Diversification and Transformation Through Mergers and Acquisitions

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Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have been playing a very significant role in the capital market. Many companies regard mergers and acquisitions as an important way for their business expansion

Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have been playing a very significant role in the capital market. Many companies regard mergers and acquisitions as an important way for their business expansion and transformation. This paper begins with a review of literature on firm’s motivations of and outcomes in M&A, and followed by a critical examination of three case studies of actual M&A transactions based on the insights provided from the literature review. For each case study, a firm’s motivations and related managerial initiatives for M&A activities were examined, followed by an assessment of the firm’s post M&A performance results. This allows the study to discerns the insights of why and how a firm proceed in its M&A transactions from its strategic intent to its post M&A managerial actions. Collectively, the results show that the key drivers for a firm’s M&A successes rest on a firm’s abilities to manage the M&A activities consistent with its strategic intent (e.g., creating synergies or transformation through diversification) and followed by its post M&A integration efforts in achieving its strategic intent.

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  • 2018