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- Creators: Ravel, Maurice, 1875-1937
penetration. Three urban regions have been selected as study locations--Chicago, Phoenix, Seattle--with simulated load data and solar insolation data at each locality. Various time-of-use pricing schedules are investigated, and the effect of net metering is evaluated to determine the optimal capacity of solar PV and battery storage in a typical residential home. The net residential load profile is scaled to assess system-wide technical and economic figures of merit for the utility with an emphasis on intraday load profiles, ramp rates and electricity sales with increasing solar PV penetration. The combined analysis evaluates the least-cost solar PV system for the consumer and models the associated system-wide effects on the electric grid. Utility revenue was found to drop by 1.2% for every percent PV penetration increase, net metering on a monthly or annual basis improved the cost-effectiveness of solar PV but not battery storage, the removal of net metering policy and usage of an improved the cost-effectiveness of battery storage and increases in solar PV penetration reduced the system load factor. As expected, Phoenix had the most favorable economic scenario for residential solar PV, primarily due to high solar insolation. The study location--solar insolation and load profile--was also found to affect the time of
year at which the largest net negative system load was realized.
The high quality of system observability is the fundamental guarantee for accurately predicting and controlling the system. The rich information from the emerging heterogeneous data sources is making it possible. This research proposes a modeling framework to systemically account for the multi-source sensor information in urban transit systems to quantify the estimated state uncertainty. A system of linear equations and inequalities is proposed to generate the information space. Also, the observation errors are further considered by a least square model. Then, a number of projection functions are introduced to match the relation between the unique information space and different system states, and its corresponding state estimate uncertainties are further quantified by calculating its maximum state range.
In addition to optimizing daily operations, the continuing advances in information technology provide precious individual travel behavior data and trip information for operational planning in transit systems. This research also proposes a new alternative modeling framework to systemically account for boundedly rational decision rules of travelers in a dynamic transit service network with tight capacity constraints. An agent-based single-level integer linear formulation is proposed and can be effectively by the Lagrangian decomposition.
The recently emerging trend of self-driving vehicles and information sharing technologies starts creating a revolutionary paradigm shift for traveler mobility applications. By considering a deterministic traveler decision making framework, this research addresses the challenges of how to optimally schedule household members’ daily scheduled activities under the complex household-level activity constraints by proposing a set of integer linear programming models. Meanwhile, in the microscopic car-following level, the trajectory optimization of autonomous vehicles is also studied by proposing a binary integer programming model.
Pay-for-performance (PFP) is a relatively new approach to agricultural conservation that attaches an incentive payment to quantified reductions in nutrient runoff from a participating farm. Similar to a payment for ecosystem services approach, PFP lends itself to providing incentives for the most beneficial practices at the field level. To date, PFP conservation in the U.S. has only been applied in small pilot programs. Because monitoring conservation performance for each field enrolled in a program would be cost-prohibitive, field-level modeling can provide cost-effective estimates of anticipated improvements in nutrient runoff. We developed a PFP system that uses a unique application of one of the leading agricultural models, the USDA’s Soil and Water Assessment Tool, to evaluate the nutrient load reductions of potential farm practice changes based on field-level agronomic and management data. The initial phase of the project focused on simulating individual fields in the River Raisin watershed in southeastern Michigan. Here we present development of the modeling approach and results from the pilot year, 2015-2016. These results stress that (1) there is variability in practice effectiveness both within and between farms, and thus there is not one “best practice” for all farms, (2) conservation decisions are made most effectively at the scale of the farm field rather than the sub-watershed or watershed level, and (3) detailed, field-level management information is needed to accurately model and manage on-farm nutrient loadings.
Supplemental information mentioned in the article is attached as a separate document.