Matching Items (18)
Description
The dynamics of urban water use are characterized by spatial and temporal variability that is influenced by associated factors at different scales. Thus it is important to capture the relationship between urban water use and its determinants in a spatio-temporal framework in order to enhance understanding and management of urban water demand. This dissertation aims to contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal relationships between single-family residential (SFR) water use and its determinants in a desert city. The dissertation has three distinct papers to support this goal. In the first paper, I demonstrate that aggregated scale data can be reliably used to study the relationship between SFR water use and its determinants without leading to significant ecological fallacy. The usability of aggregated scale data facilitates scientific inquiry about SFR water use with more available aggregated scale data. The second paper advances understanding of the relationship between SFR water use and its associated factors by accounting for the spatial and temporal dependence in a panel data setting. The third paper of this dissertation studies the historical contingency, spatial heterogeneity, and spatial connectivity in the relationship of SFR water use and its determinants by comparing three different regression models. This dissertation demonstrates the importance and necessity of incorporating spatio-temporal components, such as scale, dependence, and heterogeneity, into SFR water use research. Spatial statistical models should be used to understand the effects of associated factors on water use and test the effectiveness of certain management policies since spatial effects probably will significantly influence the estimates if only non-spatial statistical models are used. Urban water demand management should pay attention to the spatial heterogeneity in predicting the future water demand to achieve more accurate estimates, and spatial statistical models provide a promising method to do this job.
ContributorsOuyang, Yun (Author) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Thesis advisor) / Harlan, Sharon (Committee member) / Janssen, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Today's energy market is facing large-scale changes that will affect all market players. Near the top of that list is the rapid deployment of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Yet that growing trend will be influenced multiple competing interests between various stakeholders, namely the utility, consumers and technology provides. This study provides a series of analyses--utility-side, consumer-side, and combined analyses--to understand and evaluate the effect of increases in residential solar PV market
penetration. Three urban regions have been selected as study locations--Chicago, Phoenix, Seattle--with simulated load data and solar insolation data at each locality. Various time-of-use pricing schedules are investigated, and the effect of net metering is evaluated to determine the optimal capacity of solar PV and battery storage in a typical residential home. The net residential load profile is scaled to assess system-wide technical and economic figures of merit for the utility with an emphasis on intraday load profiles, ramp rates and electricity sales with increasing solar PV penetration. The combined analysis evaluates the least-cost solar PV system for the consumer and models the associated system-wide effects on the electric grid. Utility revenue was found to drop by 1.2% for every percent PV penetration increase, net metering on a monthly or annual basis improved the cost-effectiveness of solar PV but not battery storage, the removal of net metering policy and usage of an improved the cost-effectiveness of battery storage and increases in solar PV penetration reduced the system load factor. As expected, Phoenix had the most favorable economic scenario for residential solar PV, primarily due to high solar insolation. The study location--solar insolation and load profile--was also found to affect the time of
year at which the largest net negative system load was realized.
penetration. Three urban regions have been selected as study locations--Chicago, Phoenix, Seattle--with simulated load data and solar insolation data at each locality. Various time-of-use pricing schedules are investigated, and the effect of net metering is evaluated to determine the optimal capacity of solar PV and battery storage in a typical residential home. The net residential load profile is scaled to assess system-wide technical and economic figures of merit for the utility with an emphasis on intraday load profiles, ramp rates and electricity sales with increasing solar PV penetration. The combined analysis evaluates the least-cost solar PV system for the consumer and models the associated system-wide effects on the electric grid. Utility revenue was found to drop by 1.2% for every percent PV penetration increase, net metering on a monthly or annual basis improved the cost-effectiveness of solar PV but not battery storage, the removal of net metering policy and usage of an improved the cost-effectiveness of battery storage and increases in solar PV penetration reduced the system load factor. As expected, Phoenix had the most favorable economic scenario for residential solar PV, primarily due to high solar insolation. The study location--solar insolation and load profile--was also found to affect the time of
year at which the largest net negative system load was realized.
ContributorsArnold, Michael (Author) / Johnson, Nathan G (Thesis advisor) / Rogers, Bradley (Committee member) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Numerous studies have examined the interplay of climate, tectonics, biota and erosion and found that these variables are intertwined in a complicated system of feedbacks and as a result, some of these factors are often oversimplified or simply neglected. To understand the interplay of these factors one must understand the processes that transport or inhibit transport of soil. This study uses the short-lived, fallout-derived, radionuclides 137Cs and 210Pb to identify soil transport processes and to quantify soil transport using the profile distribution model for 137Cs. Using five field sites in the San Gabriel Mountains of California, I address four questions: (1) Is there a process transition between high and low gradient slopes observable with short-lived isotopes? (2) Do convex hilltops reflect short-term equilibrium erosion rates? (3) Do linear transects of pits accurately characterize hillslope averaged erosion rates? and (4) What role does fire play on short-term soil transport and isotope distribution? I find no evidence supporting a process transition from low gradient to high gradient slopes but also find that significant spatial variability of erosion rates exist. This spatial variability is the result of sensitivity of the method to small scale variations in isotopes and indicates that small scale processes may dominate broader scale trends. I find that short-term erosion rates are not at equilibrium on a convex hilltop and suggest the possibility of a headward incision signal. Data from a post-fire landscape indicates that fires may create complications in 137Cs and 210Pb distribution that current models for erosion calculation do not account for. I also find that across all my field sites soil transport processes can be identified and quantified using short-lived isotopes and I suggest high resolution grid sampling be used instead of linear transects so that small scale variability can be averaged out.
ContributorsWalsh, Joseph Robert (Author) / Heimsath, Arjun M. (Thesis advisor) / Whipple, Kelin X. (Committee member) / Zapata, Claudia E. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
The San Gabriel Mountains (SGM) of southern California provide the opportunity to study the topographic controls on erosion rate in a mountain range where climate and lithology are relatively constant. I use a combination of digital elevation model data, detailed channel survey data, decadal climate records, and catchment-averaged erosion rates quantified from 10Be concentrations in stream sands to investigate the style and rates of hillslope and channel processes across the transition from soil-mantled to rocky landscapes in the SGM. Specifically, I investigate (1) the interrelations among different topographic metrics and their variation with erosion rate, (2) how hillslopes respond to tectonic forcing in "threshold" landscapes, (3) the role of discharge variability and erosion thresholds in controlling the relationship between relief and erosion rate, and (4) the style and pace of transient adjustment in the western SGM to a recent increase in uplift rate. Millennial erosion rates in the SGM range from 0.03-1.1 mm/a, generally increasing from west to east. For low erosion rates (< 0.3 mm/a), hillslopes tend to be soil-mantled, and catchment-averaged erosion rates are positively correlated with catchment-averaged slope, channel steepness, and local relief. For erosion rates greater than 0.3 mm/a, hillslopes become increasingly rocky, catchment-mean hillslope angle becomes much less sensitive to erosion rate, and channels continue to steepen. I find that a non-linear relationship observed between channel steepness and erosion rate can be explained by a simple bedrock incision model that combines a threshold for erosion with a probability distribution of discharge events where large floods follow an inverse power-law. I also find that the timing of a two-staged increase in uplift rate in the western SGM based on stream profile analysis agrees with independent estimates. Field observations in the same region suggest that the relict topography that allows for this calculation has persisted for more than 7 Ma due to the stalling of migrating knickpoints by locally stronger bedrock and a lack of coarse sediment cover.
ContributorsDibiase, Roman Alexander (Author) / Whipple, Kelin X (Thesis advisor) / Heimsath, Arjun M. (Thesis advisor) / Arrowsmith, J Ramon (Committee member) / Garnero, Edward J. (Committee member) / Hodges, Kip V. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Ponderosa pine forests are a dominant land cover type in semiarid montane areas. Water supplies in major rivers of the southwestern United States depend on ponderosa pine forests since these ecosystems: (1) receive a significant amount of rainfall and snowfall, (2) intercept precipitation and transpire water, and (3) indirectly influence runoff by impacting the infiltration rate. However, the hydrologic patterns in these ecosystems with strong seasonality are poorly understood. In this study, we used a distributed hydrologic model evaluated against field observations to improve our understandings on spatial controls of hydrologic patterns, appropriate model resolution to simulate ponderosa pine ecosystems and hydrologic responses in the context of contrasting winter to summer transitions. Our modeling effort is focused on the hydrologic responses during the North American Monsoon (NAM), winter and spring periods. In Chapter 2, we utilized a distributed model explore the spatial controls on simulated soil moisture and temporal evolution of these spatial controls as a function of seasonal wetness. Our findings indicate that vegetation and topographic curvature are spatial controls. Vegetation controlled patterns during dry summer period switch to fine-scale terrain curvature controlled patterns during persistently wet NAM period. Thus, a climatic threshold involving rainfall and weather conditions during the NAM is identified when high rainfall amount (such as 146 mm rain in August, 1997) activates lateral flux of soil moisture and frequent cloudy cover (such as 42% cloud cover during daytime of August, 1997) lowers evapotranspiration. In Chapter 3, we investigate the impacts of model coarsening on simulated soil moisture patterns during the NAM. Results indicate that model aggregation quickly eradicates curvature features and its spatial control on hydrologic patterns. A threshold resolution of ~10% of the original terrain is identified through analyses of homogeneity indices, correlation coefficients and spatial errors beyond which the fidelity of simulated soil moisture is no longer reliable. Based on spatial error analyses, we detected that the concave areas (~28% of hillslope) are very sensitive to model coarsening and root mean square error (RMSE) is higher than residual soil moisture content (~0.07 m3/m3 soil moisture) for concave areas. Thus, concave areas need to be sampled for capturing appropriate hillslope response for this hillslope. In Chapter 4, we investigate the impacts of contrasting winter to summer transitions on hillslope hydrologic responses. We use a distributed hydrologic model to generate a consistent set of high-resolution hydrologic estimates. Our model is evaluated against the snow depth, soil moisture and runoff observations over two water years yielding reliable spatial distributions during the winter to summer transitions. We find that a wet winter followed by a dry summer promotes evapotranspiration losses (spatial averaged ~193 mm spring ET and ~ 600 mm summer ET) that dry the soil and disconnect lateral fluxes in the forested hillslope, leading to soil moisture patterns resembling vegetation patches. Conversely, a dry winter prior to a wet summer results in soil moisture increases due to high rainfall and low ET during the spring (spatially averaged 78 mm ET and 232 mm rainfall) and summer period (spatially averaged 147 mm ET and 247 mm rainfall) which promote lateral connectivity and soil moisture patterns with the signature of terrain curvature. An opposing temporal switch between infiltration and saturation excess runoff is also identified. These contrasting responses indicate that the inverse relation has significant consequences on hillslope water availability and its spatial distribution with implications on other ecohydrological processes including vegetation phenology, groundwater recharge and geomorphic development. Results from this work have implications on the design of hillslope experiments, the resolution of hillslope scale models, and the prediction of hydrologic conditions in ponderosa pine ecosystems. In addition, our findings can be used to select future hillslope sites for detailed ecohydrological investigations. Further, the proposed methodology can be useful for predicting responses to climate and land cover changes that are anticipated for the southwestern United States.
ContributorsMahmood, Taufique Hasan (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R. (Thesis advisor) / Whipple, Kelin X. (Committee member) / Shock, Everett (Committee member) / Heimsath, Arjun M. (Committee member) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities were assessed for future heat waves due to climate change. Critical processes and component relationships were identified and characterized with consideration for the terminal event of service outages, including cascading failures in transmission-level components that can result in blackouts. The most critical dependency identified was the increase in peak electricity demand with higher air temperatures. Historical and future air temperatures were characterized within and across Los Angeles County, California (LAC) and Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona. LAC was identified as more vulnerable to heat waves than Phoenix due to a wider distribution of historical temperatures. Two approaches were developed to estimate peak demand based on air temperatures, a top-down statistical model and bottom-up spatial building energy model. Both approaches yielded similar results, in that peak demand should increase sub-linearly at temperatures above 40°C (104 °F) due to saturation in the coincidence of air conditioning (AC) duty cycles. Spatial projections for peak demand were developed for LAC to 2060 considering potential changes in population, building type, building efficiency, AC penetration, appliance efficiency, and air temperatures due climate change. These projections were spatially allocated to delivery system components (generation, transmission lines, and substations) to consider their vulnerability in terms of thermal de-rated capacity and weather adjusted load factor (load divided by capacity). Peak hour electricity demand was projected to increase in residential and commercial sectors by 0.2–6.5 GW (2–51%) by 2060. All grid components, except those near Santa Monica Beach, were projected to experience 2–20% capacity loss due to air temperatures exceeding 40 °C (104 °F). Based on scenario projections, and substation load factors for Southern California Edison (SCE), SCE will require 848—6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional substation capacity or peak shaving in its LAC service territories by 2060 to meet additional demand associated with population growth projections.
ContributorsBurillo, Daniel (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
In this project, I investigated the ecosystem services, or lack thereof, that landscape designs created in terms of microclimate modification at 11 residential homes throughout the Phoenix Metro Area. I also created an article for the homeowners who participated, explaining what I did and how they could apply my research. My research question was how a person can achieve a comfortable outdoor climate in their yard without over-using scarce water resources. I hypothesized that there would be a negative correlation between the maximum air temperature and the percent shade in each yard, regardless of the percent grass. I analyzed the data I collected using the program, R, and discovered that my hypothesis was supported for the month of July. These results are in line with previous studies on the subject and can help homeowners make informed decisions about the effects their landscaping choices might have.
ContributorsBarton, Erin Michaela (Author) / Hall, Sharon (Thesis director) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Spielmann, Katherine (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
There is an interest in citizen scientist networks such as CoCoRaHS to develop an air temperature sensor with a solar shield that is both extremely low cost and user friendly for use in widespread data collection in order to analyze urban microclimates. This paper outlines work done to develop a low cost micrometeorology instrument to fulfill the design requirements set by CoCoRaHS. While the first two revisions of this technology had significant changes in development, a third revision was created as a proof of concept that low cost temperature sensors could be used in an array to accurately measure air temperature without solar radiation interference. Another technology, described as revision four, called the iButton was also evaluated and displayed promising ability to log temperatures, but costs too much for the ultra-low cost design goal. Additionally, work was done to design a radiation shield that will be prototyped and tested alongside commercial radiation shields. This controlled experiment will also include further evaluation of the iButton and the next revision of a custom microclimate temperature sensing unit to determine the best option for widespread field testing.
ContributorsMarshall, Travis Keith (Author) / Jordan, Shawn (Thesis director) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Engineering (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Alfalfa is a major feed crop widely cultivated in the United States. It is the fourth largest crop in acreage in the US after corn, soybean, and all types of wheat. As of 2003, about 48% of alfalfa was produced in the western US states where alfalfa ranks first, second, or third in crop acreage. Considering that the western US is historically water-scarce and alfalfa is a water-intensive crop, it creates a concern about exacerbating the current water crisis in the US west. Furthermore, the recent increased export of alfalfa from the western US states to China and the United Arab Emirates has fueled the debate over the virtual water content embedded in the crop. In this study, I analyzed changes of cropland systems under the three basic scenarios, using a stylized model with a combination of dynamical, hydrological, and economic elements. The three scenarios are 1) international demands for alfalfa continue to grow (or at least to stay high), 2) deficit irrigation is widely imposed in the dry region, and 3) long-term droughts persist or intensify reducing precipitation. The results of this study sheds light on how distribution of crop areas responds to climatic, economic, and institutional conditions. First, international markets, albeit small compared to domestic markets, provide economic opportunities to increase alfalfa acreage in the dry region. Second, potential water savings from mid-summer deficit irrigation can be used to expand alfalfa production in the dry region. Third, as water becomes scarce, farmers more quickly switch to crops that make more economic use of the limited water.
ContributorsKim, Booyoung (Author) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Aggarwal, Rimjhim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Rivers in steep mountainous landscapes control how, where, and when signals of base-level fall are transmitted to the surrounding topography. In doing so rivers play an important role in determining landscape evolution in response to external controls of tectonics and climate. However, tectonics and climate often covary and understanding how they influence landscape evolution remains a significant challenge. The Hawaiian Islands, where tectonics are minimized but climate signals are amplified, provide an opportunity to better understand how signals of climate are recorded by landscapes. Focusing on the Hawaiian Islands, I examine (1) how variability in rock mass properties and thresholds in sediment mobility determine where waterfalls form or stall along the Nāpali coast of Kauaʻi, (2) I then extend these findings to other volcanoes to test if observed physical limits in flood size, climate, and volcano gradient can determine where waterfalls form, and (3) I explore how thresholds in river incision below waterfalls limit information about the influence of climate on river incision rates. Findings from this analysis show that waterfalls form or stall where the maximum unit stream power is at or below a critical unit stream power for bedrock river incision. Climate appears to have little effect in determining where these conditions are met but where waterfalls stall or form does record information about discharge-area scaling for global maximum observed floods. Below waterfalls the maximum incision depth for rivers on the island of Kauaʻi (which formed ~ 4-5 million years ago) is approximately proportional to the inverse square root of mean annual rainfall. Though maximum river incision depths for some of the younger volcanoes do not exhibit the same dependency on mean annual rainfall rates they are comparable to the maximum incision depths observed on Kauaʻi even though they are a quarter to one-tenth the age of Kauaʻi. Importantly, these patterns of incision can be explained by thresholds in sediment mobility as recorded by river longitudinal profiles and indicate that the Hawaiian Islands are dominated by threshold conditions where signals of climate are recorded in the topography through controls on incision depth but not incision rates.
ContributorsRaming, Logan Wren (Author) / Whipple, Kelin X (Thesis advisor) / Arrowsmith, Ramon (Committee member) / Heimsath, Arjun M. (Committee member) / DeVecchio, Duane E. (Committee member) / Schmeeckle, Mark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022