Matching Items (1,059)
Filtering by
- Creators: Haydn, Joseph, 1732-1809
ContributorsHaydn, Joseph, 1732-1809 (Composer)
ContributorsHaydn, Joseph, 1732-1809 (Composer)
Description
This thesis takes the form of a market research report with the goal of analyzing the implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) (known as “Brexit”) on London’s office commercial real estate market. The ultimate goal of this report is to make a prediction, firmly grounded in quantitative and qualitative research conducted over the past several months, as to the direction of London’s commercial real estate market going forward (post-Brexit). Within the commercial real estate sector, this paper narrows its focus to the office segment of the London market.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
ContributorsHorn, Jonathan (Co-author) / Sidi, Adam (Co-author) / Bonadurer, Werner (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
I built a short-term West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price-forecasting model for two periods to understand how various drivers of crude oil behaved before and after the Great Recession. According to the Federal Reserve the Great Recession "...began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009" (Rich 1). The research involves two models spanning two periods. The first period encompasses 2000 to late 2007 and the second period encompasses early 2010 to 2016. The dependent variable for this model is monthly average WTI crude oil prices. The independent variables are based on what the academic community believes are drivers of crude oil prices. While the studies may be scattered across different time periods, they provide valuable insight on what the academic community believes drives oil prices. The model includes variables that address two different data groups including: 1. Market fundamentals/expectations of market fundamentals 2. Speculation One of the biggest challenges I faced was defining and quantifying "speculation". I ended up using a previous study's definition of "speculation", which it defined as the activity of certain market participants in the Commitment of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. My research shows that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil market exhibited a structural change after the Great Recession. Furthermore, my research also presents interesting findings that warrant further research. For example, I find that 3-month T-bills and 10yr Treasury notes lose their predictive edge starting in the second period (2010-2016). Furthermore, the positive correlation between oil and the U.S. dollar in the period 2000-2007 warrants further investigation. Lastly, it might be interesting to see why T-bills are positively correlated to WTI prices and 10yr Treasury notes are negatively correlated to WTI prices.
ContributorsMirza, Hisham Tariq (Author) / McDaniel, Cara (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis is one that is not widely understood by many. The easy access to cheap credit and the global over-confidence leading up to 2008 both played a large factor in how economies were affected by the crisis. This paper looks at the stories of Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Iceland leading up to, during, and after this crisis in order to discover how it happened and why it was so widespread. I explain three lessons that can be learned from this crisis in attempt to avoid this type of crisis in the future. First, countries were not automatically safe investments once they joined the European Monetary Union. Second, easy access to credit is not sustainable in the long run. Finally, confidence plays a main role in the performance of an economy, and the loss of confidence can be detrimental.
ContributorsSmaw, Hannah (Author) / McDaniel, Cara (Thesis director) / Hill, Alexander (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
A global trend towards cashlessness following the increase in technological advances in financial transactions lends way to a discussion of its various impacts on society. As part of this discussion, it is important to consider how this trend influences crime rates. The purpose of this project is to specifically investigate the relationship between a cashless society and the robbery rate. Using data collected from the World Bank’s Global Financial Inclusions Index and the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, we implemented a multilinear regression to observe this relationship across countries (n = 29). We aimed to do this by regressing the robbery rate on cashlessness and controlling for other related variables, such as gross domestic product and corruption. We found that as a country becomes more cashless, the robbery rate decreases (β = -677.8379, p = 0.071), thus providing an incentive for countries to join this global trend. We also conducted tests for heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. Overall, our results indicate that a reduction in the amount of cash circulating within a country negatively impacts robbery rates.
ContributorsChoksi, Aashini S (Co-author) / Elliott, Keeley (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Is there a rules-based explanation for the low interest rates and quantitative easing undertaken by the Federal Reserve following the Global Financial Crisis? The question is important as it pertains to the ongoing debate between rules-based and discretionary monetary policy. It is also important in the search for a Taylor Rule modification that can fill in the gap left by the breakdown of the original rule following the GFC. This paper examines a recent Taylor Rule modification proposed from James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, to see if this modification can explain Fed actions following the GFC. The modification is analyzed in the same two ways that the original Taylor Rule was evaluated. Namely, this paper tests the economic logic of the modification as well as examines how well the rule's policy rate prescription has fit the actual federal funds rate over time. The economic logic of the modification is examined during recessions. The fit between the rule's policy rate prescription and the actual federal funds rate is examined using r-squared. I conclude that by changing the neutral rate in a Taylor-type rule, Bullard provides a credible policy rule that helps explain Fed behavior following the GFC.
ContributorsCowan, Daniel Jonathan (Author) / McDowell, John (Thesis director) / Templeton, Len (Committee member) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The returns to education in Haiti are high. Nevertheless, few individuals receive/enjoy them because education is privately provided, costly, and the poor cannot afford it. The poor receive too little education and would benefit from investing more into their education however, they cannot do so because they are unable to borrow, which can be attributed to the poorly functioning credit markets. Therefore, there is a need for government policy intervention aimed at providing more education to the poor. The purpose of this study is to propose and evaluate economic policies that might help the poor obtain more education. In particular, I analyze a taxation policy that redistributes income from the rich to the poor by implementing a tax transfer program. I also analyze a tax policy that taxes only the rich and used the tax revenue generated to fund public education for all children age 5-14. In the first policy, a tax rate of 3.17% on the rich and transfer to the poor increases the income of the poor parents by $81.74 USD a year and the income of the poor child by $61.78 USD while decreasing the income of the rich child by $61.78 USD. The second policy varies the amount parents and the government spend on a children's education and analyzes the effects on a children's income. I find that a fairly modest tax on the rich does a good job at generating more education for the poor, increasing the income of the poor children, and therefore alleviating the poverty of the poor. For example, a 5.21% tax on the top 20% of the rich raises enough money to provide six years of free public education for all children. As a result, the child's income in the poorest 20% of families raises from $539.30 to $887.14. These findings suggest that public education is likely an important channel through which the extent of poverty in Haiti can be reduced.
ContributorsWard, Alisha Elizabeth (Author) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
ContributorsHaydn, Joseph, 1732-1809 (Composer)
ContributorsHaydn, Joseph, 1732-1809 (Composer)