United States have led to significant modifications in its environment at local and
regional scales. Both local and regional climate changes are expected to have massive
impacts on the hydrology of Colorado River Basin (CRB), thereby accentuating the need
of study of hydro-climatic impacts on water resource management in this region. This
thesis is devoted to understanding the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes
on the local and regional hydroclimate, with the goal to address urban planning issues
and provide guidance for sustainable development.
In this study, three densely populated urban areas, viz. Phoenix, Las Vegas and
Denver in the CRB are selected to capture the various dimensions of the impacts of land
use changes on the regional hydroclimate in the entire CRB. Weather Research and
Forecast (WRF) model, incorporating the latest urban modeling system, is adopted for
regional climate modeling. Two major types of urban LULC changes are studied in this
Thesis: (1) incorporation of urban trees with their radiative cooling effect, tested in
Phoenix metropolitan, and (2) projected urban expansion in 2100 obtained from
Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) developed by the US
Environmental Protection Agency for all three cities.
The results demonstrated prominent nocturnal cooling effect of due to radiative
shading effect of the urban trees for Phoenix reducing urban surface and air temperature
by about 2~9 °C and 1~5 °C respectively and increasing relative humidity by 10~20%
during an mean diurnal cycle. The simulations of urban growth in CRB demonstratedii
nocturnal warming of about 0.36 °C, 1.07 °C, and 0.94 °C 2m-air temperature and
comparatively insignificant change in daytime temperature, with the thermal environment
of Denver being the most sensitive the urban growth. The urban hydroclimatic study
carried out in the thesis assists in identifying both context specific and generalizable
relationships, patterns among the cities, and is expected to facilitate urban planning and
management in local (cities) and regional scales.
Potential climate change impacts on summer precipitation and subsequent hydrologic responses in the southwestern U.S. are poorly constrained at present due to a lack of studies accounting for high resolution processes. In this investigation, we apply a distributed hydrologic model to the Beaver Creek watershed of central Arizona to explore its utility for climate change assessments. Manual model calibration and model validation were performed using radar-based precipitation data during three summers and compared to two alternative meteorological products to illustrate the sensitivity of the streamflow response. Using the calibrated and validated model, we investigated the watershed response during historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) summer projections derived from a single realization of a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. Results indicate spatially-averaged changes across the two projections: an increase in air temperature of 1.2 °C, a 2.4-fold increase in precipitation amount and a 3-fold increase in variability, and a 3.1-fold increase in streamflow amount and a 5.1-fold increase in variability. Nevertheless, relatively minor changes were obtained in spatially-averaged evapotranspiration. To explain this, we used the simulated hydroclimatological mechanisms to identify that higher precipitation limits radiation through cloud cover leading to lower evapotranspiration in regions with orographic effects. This challenges conventional wisdom on evapotranspiration trends and suggest that a more nuanced approach is needed to communicate hydrologic vulnerability to stakeholders and decision-makers in this semiarid region.