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- Creators: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
This thesis explores how large scale cyber exercises work in the 21st century, going in-depth on Exercise Cyber Shield, the Department of Defense’s largest unclassified cyber defense exercise run by the Army National Guard. It highlights why these cyber exercises are so relevant, going over several large scale cyber attacks that have occurred in the past year and the impact they caused. This research aims to illuminate the intricacies around cyber exercise assessment involving manual vs automated scoring systems; this is brought back to work on creating an automated scoring engine for Exercise Cyber Shield. This thesis provides an inside look behind the scenes of the operations of the largest unclassified cyber defense exercise in the United States, including conversations with the Exercise Officer-In-Charge of Cyber Shield as well as a cyber exercise expert working on assessment of Exercise Cyber Shield, and the research also includes information from past final reports for Cyber Shield. Issues that these large scale cyber exercises have faced over the years are brought to light, and attempts at solutions are discussed.
For our thesis, we analyzed a set of data from the on-going longitudinal study, “Aging In the Time of COVID-19” (Guest et al., ongoing) from the Center for Innovation in Healthy and Resilient Aging at Arizona State University. This study researched how COVID-19 and the resulting physical/social distancing impacted aging individuals' health, wellbeing, and quality-of-life. The survey collected data regarding over 1400 participants’ social connections, health, and experiences during COVID-19. This study gathered information about participants’ comorbid conditions, age, sex, location, etc. We presented this work in the form of a website including the traditional elements of an Honors Thesis as well as a visual essay with the data analysis portion coded with the JavaScript library D3 and a list of resources for our target audience, older adults who are experiencing social isolation and/or loneliness.
This project aims to incorporate the aspect of sentiment analysis into traditional stock analysis to enhance stock rating predictions by applying a reliance on the opinion of various stocks from the Internet. Headlines from eight major news publications and conversations from Yahoo! Finance’s “Conversations” feature were parsed through the Valence Aware Dictionary for Sentiment Reasoning (VADER) natural language processing package to determine numerical polarities which represented positivity or negativity for a given stock ticker. These generated polarities were paired with stock metrics typically observed by stock analysts as the feature set for a Logistic Regression machine learning model. The model was trained on roughly 1500 major stocks to determine a binary classification between a “Buy” or “Not Buy” rating for each stock, and the results of the model were inserted into the back-end of the Agora Web UI which emulates search engine behavior specifically for stocks found in NYSE and NASDAQ. The model reported an accuracy of 82.5% and for most major stocks, the model’s prediction correlated with stock analysts’ ratings. Given the volatility of the stock market and the propensity for hive-mind behavior in online forums, the performance of the Logistic Regression model would benefit from incorporating historical stock data and more sources of opinion to balance any subjectivity in the model.
We attempt to analyze the effect of fatigue on free throw efficiency in the National Basketball Association (NBA) using play-by-play data from regular-season, regulation-length games in the 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 seasons. Using both regression and tree-based statistical methods, we analyze the relationship between minutes played total and minutes played continuously at the time of free throw attempts on players' odds of making an attempt, while controlling for prior free throw shooting ability, longer-term fatigue, and other game factors. Our results offer strong evidence that short-term activity after periods of inactivity positively affects free throw efficiency, while longer-term fatigue has no effect.