Matching Items (65)
Description
Wind measurements are fundamental inputs for the evaluation of potential energy yield and performance of wind farms. Three-dimensional scanning coherent Doppler lidar (CDL) may provide a new basis for wind farm site selection, design, and control. In this research, CDL measurements obtained from multiple wind energy developments are analyzed and a novel wind farm control approach has been modeled. The possibility of using lidar measurements to more fully characterize the wind field is discussed, specifically, terrain effects, spatial variation of winds, power density, and the effect of shear at different layers within the rotor swept area. Various vector retrieval methods have been applied to the lidar data, and results are presented on an elevated terrain-following surface at hub height. The vector retrieval estimates are compared with tower measurements, after interpolation to the appropriate level. CDL data is used to estimate the spatial power density at hub height. Since CDL can measure winds at different vertical levels, an approach for estimating wind power density over the wind turbine rotor-swept area is explored. Sample optimized layouts of wind farm using lidar data and global optimization algorithms, accounting for wake interaction effects, have been explored. An approach to evaluate spatial wind speed and direction estimates from a standard nested Coupled Ocean and Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) model and CDL is presented. The magnitude of spatial difference between observations and simulation for wind energy assessment is researched. Diurnal effects and ramp events as estimated by CDL and COAMPS were inter-compared. Novel wind farm control based on incoming winds and direction input from CDL's is developed. Both yaw and pitch control using scanning CDL for efficient wind farm control is analyzed. The wind farm control optimizes power production and reduces loads on wind turbines for various lidar wind speed and direction inputs, accounting for wind farm wake losses and wind speed evolution. Several wind farm control configurations were developed, for enhanced integrability into the electrical grid. Finally, the value proposition of CDL for a wind farm development, based on uncertainty reduction and return of investment is analyzed.
ContributorsKrishnamurthy, Raghavendra (Author) / Calhoun, Ronald J (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Kangping (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Phelan, Patrick (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a powerful framework for environmental decision making because the broad boundaries called for prevent shifting of burden from one life-cycle phase to another. Numerous experts and policy setting organizations call for the application of LCA to developing nanotechnologies. Early application of LCA to nanotechnology may identify environmentally problematic processes and supply chain components before large investments contribute to technology lock in, and thereby promote integration of environmental concerns into technology development and scale-up (enviro-technical integration). However, application of LCA to nanotechnology is problematic due to limitations in LCA methods (e.g., reliance on data from existing industries at scale, ambiguity regarding proper boundary selection), and because social drivers of technology development and environmental preservation are not identified in LCA. This thesis proposes two methodological advances that augment current capabilities of LCA by incorporating knowledge from technical and social domains. Specifically, this thesis advances the capacity for LCA to yield enviro-technical integration through inclusion of scenario development, thermodynamic modeling, and use-phase performance bounding to overcome the paucity of data describing emerging nanotechnologies. With regard to socio-technical integration, this thesis demonstrates that social values are implicit in LCA, and explores the extent to which these values impact LCA practice and results. There are numerous paths of entry through which social values are contained in LCA, for example functional unit selection, impact category selection, and system boundary definition - decisions which embody particular values and determine LCA results. Explicit identification of how social values are embedded in LCA promotes integration of social and environmental concerns into technology development (socio-enviro-technical integration), and may contribute to the development of socially-responsive and environmentally preferable nanotechnologies. In this way, tailoring LCA to promote socio-enviro-technical integration is a tangible and meaningful step towards responsible innovation processes.
ContributorsWender, Ben A. (Author) / Seager, Thomas P (Thesis advisor) / Crozier, Peter (Committee member) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Guston, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The environmental and economic assessment of neighborhood-scale transit-oriented urban form changes should include initial construction impacts through long-term use to fully understand the benefits and costs of smart growth policies. The long-term impacts of moving people closer to transit require the coupling of behavioral forecasting with environmental assessment. Using new light rail and bus rapid transit in Los Angeles, California as a case study, a life-cycle environmental and economic assessment is developed to assess the potential range of impacts resulting from mixed-use infill development. An integrated transportation and land use life-cycle assessment framework is developed to estimate energy consumption, air emissions, and economic (public, developer, and user) costs. Residential and commercial buildings, automobile travel, and transit operation changes are included and a 60-year forecast is developed that compares transit-oriented growth against growth in areas without close access to high-capacity transit service. The results show that commercial developments create the greatest potential for impact reductions followed by residential commute shifts to transit, both of which may be effected by access to high-capacity transit, reduced parking requirements, and developer incentives. Greenhouse gas emission reductions up to 470 Gg CO2-equivalents per year can be achieved with potential costs savings for TOD users. The potential for respiratory impacts (PM10-equivalents) and smog formation can be reduced by 28-35%. The shift from business-as-usual growth to transit-oriented development can decrease user costs by $3,100 per household per year over the building lifetime, despite higher rental costs within the mixed-use development.
ContributorsNahlik, Matthew (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Pendyala, Ram (Committee member) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The atmosphere contains a substantial amount of water soluble organic material, yet despite years of efforts, little is known on the structure, composition and properties of this organic matter. Aqueous phase processing by fogs and clouds of the gas and particulate organic material is poorly understood despite the importance for air pollution and climate. On one hand, gas phase species can be processed by fog/cloud droplets to form lower volatility species, which upon droplet evaporation lead to new aerosol mass, while on the other hand larger nonvolatile material can be degraded by in cloud oxidation to smaller molecular weight compounds and eventually CO2.
In this work High Performance Size Exclusion Chromatography coupled with inline organic carbon detection (SEC-DOC), Diffusion-Ordered Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy (DOSY-NMR) and Fluorescence Excitation-Emission Matrices (EEM) were used to characterize molecular weight distribution, functionality and optical properties of atmospheric organic matter. Fogs, aerosols and clouds were studied in a variety of environments including Central Valley of California (Fresno, Davis), Pennsylvania (Selinsgrove), British Columbia (Whistler) and three locations in Norway. The molecular weight distributions using SEC-DOC showed smaller molecular sizes for atmospheric organic matter compared to surface waters and a smaller material in fogs and clouds compared to aerosol particles, which is consistent with a substantial fraction of small volatile gases that partition into the aqueous phase. Both, cloud and aerosol samples presented a significant fraction (up to 21% of DOC) of biogenic nanoscale material. The results obtained by SEC-DOC were consistent with DOSY-NMR observations.
Cloud processing of organic matter has also been investigated by combining field observations (sample time series) with laboratory experiments under controlled conditions. Observations revealed no significant effect of aqueous phase chemistry on molecular weight distributions overall although during cloud events, substantial differences were apparent between organic material activated into clouds compared to interstitial material. Optical properties on the other hand showed significant changes including photobleaching and an increased humidification of atmospheric material by photochemical aging. Overall any changes to atmospheric organic matter during cloud processing were small in terms of bulk carbon properties, consistent with recent reports suggesting fogs and clouds are too dilute to substantially impact composition.
In this work High Performance Size Exclusion Chromatography coupled with inline organic carbon detection (SEC-DOC), Diffusion-Ordered Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy (DOSY-NMR) and Fluorescence Excitation-Emission Matrices (EEM) were used to characterize molecular weight distribution, functionality and optical properties of atmospheric organic matter. Fogs, aerosols and clouds were studied in a variety of environments including Central Valley of California (Fresno, Davis), Pennsylvania (Selinsgrove), British Columbia (Whistler) and three locations in Norway. The molecular weight distributions using SEC-DOC showed smaller molecular sizes for atmospheric organic matter compared to surface waters and a smaller material in fogs and clouds compared to aerosol particles, which is consistent with a substantial fraction of small volatile gases that partition into the aqueous phase. Both, cloud and aerosol samples presented a significant fraction (up to 21% of DOC) of biogenic nanoscale material. The results obtained by SEC-DOC were consistent with DOSY-NMR observations.
Cloud processing of organic matter has also been investigated by combining field observations (sample time series) with laboratory experiments under controlled conditions. Observations revealed no significant effect of aqueous phase chemistry on molecular weight distributions overall although during cloud events, substantial differences were apparent between organic material activated into clouds compared to interstitial material. Optical properties on the other hand showed significant changes including photobleaching and an increased humidification of atmospheric material by photochemical aging. Overall any changes to atmospheric organic matter during cloud processing were small in terms of bulk carbon properties, consistent with recent reports suggesting fogs and clouds are too dilute to substantially impact composition.
ContributorsWang, Youliang (Author) / Herckes, Pierre (Thesis advisor) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Anbar, Ariel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Chloroform (CHCl3) is an important atmospheric pollutant by its direct health effects as well as by its contribution to photochemical smog formation. Chloroform outgassing from swimming pools is not typically considered a source of atmospheric CHCl3 because swimming pools are scarce compared to other sources. However, large urban areas in hot climates such as Phoenix, AZ contain a substantial amount of swimming pools, potentially resulting in significant atmospheric fluxes. In this study, CHCl3 formation potential (FP) from disinfection of swimming pools in Phoenix was investigated through laboratory experiments and annual CHCl3 emission fluxes from swimming pools were estimated based on the experimental data.
Swimming pool water (collected in June 2014 in Phoenix) and model contaminants (Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products (PPCPs), Endocrine Disrupting Compounds (EDCs), artificial sweeteners, and artificial human waste products) were chlorinated in controlled laboratory experiments. The CHCl3 production during chlorination was determined using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) following solid-phase microextraction (SPME). Upon chlorination, all swimming pool water samples and contaminants produced measureable amounts of chloroform. Chlorination of swimming pool water produced 0.005-0.134 mol CHCl3/mol C and 0.004-0.062 mol CHCl3/mol Cl2 consumed. Chlorination of model contaminants produced 0.004-0.323 mol CHCl3/mol C and 0.001-0.247 mol CHCl3/mol Cl2 consumed. These numbers are comparable and indicate that the model contaminants react similarly to swimming pool water during chlorination. The CHCl3 flux from swimming pools in Phoenix was estimated at approximately 3.9-4.3 Gg/yr and was found to be largely dependent on water temperature and wind speed while air temperature had little effect. This preliminary estimate is orders of magnitude larger than previous estimates of anthropogenic emissions in Phoenix suggesting that swimming pools might be a significant source of atmospheric CHCl3 locally.
Swimming pool water (collected in June 2014 in Phoenix) and model contaminants (Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products (PPCPs), Endocrine Disrupting Compounds (EDCs), artificial sweeteners, and artificial human waste products) were chlorinated in controlled laboratory experiments. The CHCl3 production during chlorination was determined using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) following solid-phase microextraction (SPME). Upon chlorination, all swimming pool water samples and contaminants produced measureable amounts of chloroform. Chlorination of swimming pool water produced 0.005-0.134 mol CHCl3/mol C and 0.004-0.062 mol CHCl3/mol Cl2 consumed. Chlorination of model contaminants produced 0.004-0.323 mol CHCl3/mol C and 0.001-0.247 mol CHCl3/mol Cl2 consumed. These numbers are comparable and indicate that the model contaminants react similarly to swimming pool water during chlorination. The CHCl3 flux from swimming pools in Phoenix was estimated at approximately 3.9-4.3 Gg/yr and was found to be largely dependent on water temperature and wind speed while air temperature had little effect. This preliminary estimate is orders of magnitude larger than previous estimates of anthropogenic emissions in Phoenix suggesting that swimming pools might be a significant source of atmospheric CHCl3 locally.
ContributorsRose, Christy J (Author) / Herckes, Pierre (Thesis advisor) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Hayes, Mark (Committee member) / Westerhoff, Paul (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Arsenic (As) is a naturally occurring element that poses a health risk when continually consumed at levels exceeding the Environmental Protection Agencies (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 ppb. With the Arizona Department of Water Resources considering reliance on other sources of water other than just solely surface water, groundwater proves a reliable, supplemental source. The Salt River Project (SRP) wants to effectively treat their noncompliance groundwater sources to meet EPA compliance. Rapid small-scale column tests (RSSCTs) of two SRP controlled groundwater wells along the Eastern Canal and Consolidated Canal were designed to assist SRP in selection and future design of full-scale packed bed adsorbent media. Main concerns for column choice is effectiveness, design space at groundwater wells, and simplicity. Two adsorbent media types were tested for effective treatment of As to below the MCL: a synthetic iron oxide, Bayoxide E33, and a strong base anion exchange resin, SBG-1. Both media have high affinity toward As and prove effective at treating As from these groundwater sources. Bayoxide E33 RSSCT performance indicated that As treatment lasted to near 60,000 bed volumes (BV) in both water sources and still showed As adsorption extending past this operation ranging from several months to a year. SBG-1 RSSCT performance indicated As, treatment lasted to 500 BV, with the added benefit of being regenerated. At 5%, 13%, and 25% brine regeneration concentrations, regeneration showed that 5% brine is effective, yet would complicate overall design and footprint. Bayoxide E33 was selected as the best adsorbent media for SRP use in full-scale columns at groundwater wells due to its simplistic design and high efficiency.
ContributorsLesan, Dylan (Author) / Westerhoff, Paul (Thesis advisor) / Hristovski, Kiril (Committee member) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Vapor intrusion (VI), can pose health risks to building occupants. Assessment and mitigation at VI impacted sites have been guided by a site conceptual model (SCM) in which vapors originate from subsurface sources, diffuse through soil matrix and enter into a building by gas flow across foundation cracks. Alternative VI pathways and groundwater table fluctuations are not often considered.
Alternative VI pathways, involving vapor transport along sewer lines and other subsurface infrastructure, have recently been found to be significant contributors to VI impacts at some sites. This study evaluated approaches for identifying and characterizing the significance of alternative VI pathways and assessed the effectiveness of conventional mitigation at a site with an alternative VI pathway that can be manipulated to be on or off. The alternative pathway could not be identified using conventional pathway assessment procedures and can only be discovered under controlled pressure method (CPM) conditions. Measured emission rates were two orders of magnitude greater than screening model estimates and sub-foundation vertical soil gas profiles changed and were no longer consistent with the conventional VI conceptual model when the CPM test was conducted. The pipe flow VI pathway reduced the vacuum performance of the sub-slab depressurization (SSD) VI mitigation system, but the SSD system still provided sufficient protection to the house.
The relationship between groundwater table fluctuations and subsurface vapor emissions and transport is examined using multi-year data from the field site, and is studied in the laboratory. In addition, a broader range of conditions is examined through use of modeling validated with the experimental data. The results indicate that fluctuating groundwater tables will lead to amplified volatile organic chemical (VOC) emissions from groundwater to soil surface relative to steady water table elevation, however, the magnitude of this amplification is less concerned when long-term water fluctuation present. No clear correlations were found between VOC emissions and water table changes at the study site where annual water table fluctuations of about 0.3 m existed. Significant VOC emission amplifications by water table fluctuation would be expected under shallow groundwater conditions according to model analysis results.
Alternative VI pathways, involving vapor transport along sewer lines and other subsurface infrastructure, have recently been found to be significant contributors to VI impacts at some sites. This study evaluated approaches for identifying and characterizing the significance of alternative VI pathways and assessed the effectiveness of conventional mitigation at a site with an alternative VI pathway that can be manipulated to be on or off. The alternative pathway could not be identified using conventional pathway assessment procedures and can only be discovered under controlled pressure method (CPM) conditions. Measured emission rates were two orders of magnitude greater than screening model estimates and sub-foundation vertical soil gas profiles changed and were no longer consistent with the conventional VI conceptual model when the CPM test was conducted. The pipe flow VI pathway reduced the vacuum performance of the sub-slab depressurization (SSD) VI mitigation system, but the SSD system still provided sufficient protection to the house.
The relationship between groundwater table fluctuations and subsurface vapor emissions and transport is examined using multi-year data from the field site, and is studied in the laboratory. In addition, a broader range of conditions is examined through use of modeling validated with the experimental data. The results indicate that fluctuating groundwater tables will lead to amplified volatile organic chemical (VOC) emissions from groundwater to soil surface relative to steady water table elevation, however, the magnitude of this amplification is less concerned when long-term water fluctuation present. No clear correlations were found between VOC emissions and water table changes at the study site where annual water table fluctuations of about 0.3 m existed. Significant VOC emission amplifications by water table fluctuation would be expected under shallow groundwater conditions according to model analysis results.
ContributorsGuo, Yuanming (Author) / Johnson, Paul C (Thesis advisor) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Westerhoff, Paul (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Population growth within drylands is occurring faster than growth in any other ecologic zone, putting pressure on already stressed water resources. Because the availability of surface water supplies in drylands tends to be highly variable, many of these populations rely on groundwater. A critical process contributing to groundwater recharge is the interaction between ephemeral channels and groundwater aquifers. Generally, it has been found that ephemeral channels contribute to groundwater recharge when streamflow infiltrates into the sandy bottoms of channels. This process has traditionally been studied in channels that drain large areas (10s to 100s km2). In this dissertation, I study the interactions between surface water and groundwater via ephemeral channels in a first-order watershed located on an arid piedmont slope within the Jornada Experimental Range (JER) in the Chihuahuan Desert. To achieve this, I utilize a combination of high-resolution observations and computer simulations using a modified hydrologic model to quantify groundwater recharge and shed light on the geomorphic and ecologic processes that affect the rate of recharge. Observational results indicate that runoff generated within the piedmont slope contributes significantly to deep percolation. During the short-term (6 yr) study period, we estimated 385 mm of total percolation, 62 mm/year, or a ratio of percolation to rainfall of 0.25. Based on the instrument network, we identified that percolation occurs inside channel areas when these receive overland sheetflow from hillslopes. By utilizing a modified version of the hydrologic model, TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), that was calibrated and validated using the observational dataset, I quantified the effects of changing watershed properties on groundwater recharge. Distributed model simulations quantify how deep percolation is produced during the streamflow generation process, and indicate that it plays a significant role in moderating the production of streamflow. Sensitivity analyses reveal that hillslope properties control the amount of rainfall necessary to initiate percolation while channel properties control the partitioning of hillslope runoff into streamflow and deep percolation. Synthetic vegetation experiments show that woody plant encroachment leads to increases in both deep percolation and streamflow. Further woody plant encroachment may result in the unexpected enhancement of dryland aquifer sustainability.
ContributorsSchreiner-McGraw, Adam P (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R. (Thesis advisor) / Whipple, Kelin X. (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Throop, Heather L. (Committee member) / Sala, Osvaldo E. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
The energy consumption by public drinking water and wastewater utilities represent up to 30%-40% of a municipality energy bill. The largest energy consumption is used to operate motors for pumping. As a result, the engineering and control community develop the Variable Speed Pumps (VSPs) which allow for regulating valves in the network instead of the traditional binary ON/OFF pumps. Potentially, VSPs save up to 90% of annual energy cost compared to the binary pump. The control problem has been tackled in the literature as “Pump Scheduling Optimization” (PSO) with a main focus on the cost minimization. Nonetheless, engineering literature is mostly concerned with the problem of understanding “healthy working conditions” (e.g., leakages, breakages) for a water infrastructure rather than the costs. This is very critical because if we operate a network under stress, it may satisfy the demand at present but will likely hinder network functionality in the future.
This research addresses the problem of analyzing working conditions of large water systems by means of a detailed hydraulic simulation model (e.g., EPANet) to gain insights into feasibility with respect to pressure, tank level, etc. This work presents a new framework called Feasible Set Approximation – Probabilistic Branch and Bound (FSA-PBnB) for the definition and determination of feasible solutions in terms of pumps regulation. We propose the concept of feasibility distance, which is measured as the distance of the current solution from the feasibility frontier to estimate the distribution of the feasibility values across the solution space. Based on this estimate, pruning the infeasible regions and maintaining the feasible regions are proposed to identify the desired feasible solutions. We test the proposed algorithm with both theoretical and real water networks. The results demonstrate that FSA-PBnB has the capability to identify the feasibility profile in an efficient way. Additionally, with the feasibility distance, we can understand the quality of sub-region in terms of feasibility.
The present work provides a basic feasibility determination framework on the low dimension problems. When FSA-PBnB extends to large scale constraint optimization problems, a more intelligent sampling method may be developed to further reduce the computational effort.
This research addresses the problem of analyzing working conditions of large water systems by means of a detailed hydraulic simulation model (e.g., EPANet) to gain insights into feasibility with respect to pressure, tank level, etc. This work presents a new framework called Feasible Set Approximation – Probabilistic Branch and Bound (FSA-PBnB) for the definition and determination of feasible solutions in terms of pumps regulation. We propose the concept of feasibility distance, which is measured as the distance of the current solution from the feasibility frontier to estimate the distribution of the feasibility values across the solution space. Based on this estimate, pruning the infeasible regions and maintaining the feasible regions are proposed to identify the desired feasible solutions. We test the proposed algorithm with both theoretical and real water networks. The results demonstrate that FSA-PBnB has the capability to identify the feasibility profile in an efficient way. Additionally, with the feasibility distance, we can understand the quality of sub-region in terms of feasibility.
The present work provides a basic feasibility determination framework on the low dimension problems. When FSA-PBnB extends to large scale constraint optimization problems, a more intelligent sampling method may be developed to further reduce the computational effort.
ContributorsTsai, Yi-An (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Zabinsky, Zelda (Committee member) / Candelieri, Antonio (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is the primary source of water in the
southwestern United States. A key step to reduce the uncertainty of future streamflow
projections in the CRB is to evaluate the performance of historical simulations of General
Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, this challenge is addressed by evaluating the
ability of nineteen GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five
(CMIP5) and four nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical
properties of the hydrologic cycle and temperature in the CRB. To capture the transition
from snow-dominated to semiarid regions, analyses are conducted by spatially averaging
the climate variables in four nested sub-basins. Most models overestimate the mean
annual precipitation (P) and underestimate the mean annual temperature (T) at all
locations. While a group of models capture the mean annual runoff at all sub-basins with
different strengths of the hydrological cycle, another set of models overestimate the mean
annual runoff, due to a weak cycle in the evaporation channel. An abrupt increase in the
mean annual T in observed and most of the simulated time series (~0.8 °C) is detected at
all locations despite the lack of any statistically significant monotonic trends for both P
and T. While all models simulate the seasonality of T quite well, the phasing of the
seasonal cycle of P is fairly reproduced in just the upper, snow-dominated sub-basin.
Model performances degrade in the larger sub-basins that include semiarid areas, because
several GCMs are not able to capture the effect of the North American monsoon. Finally,
the relative performances of the climate models in reproducing the climatologies of P and
T are quantified to support future impact studies in the basin.
southwestern United States. A key step to reduce the uncertainty of future streamflow
projections in the CRB is to evaluate the performance of historical simulations of General
Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, this challenge is addressed by evaluating the
ability of nineteen GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five
(CMIP5) and four nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical
properties of the hydrologic cycle and temperature in the CRB. To capture the transition
from snow-dominated to semiarid regions, analyses are conducted by spatially averaging
the climate variables in four nested sub-basins. Most models overestimate the mean
annual precipitation (P) and underestimate the mean annual temperature (T) at all
locations. While a group of models capture the mean annual runoff at all sub-basins with
different strengths of the hydrological cycle, another set of models overestimate the mean
annual runoff, due to a weak cycle in the evaporation channel. An abrupt increase in the
mean annual T in observed and most of the simulated time series (~0.8 °C) is detected at
all locations despite the lack of any statistically significant monotonic trends for both P
and T. While all models simulate the seasonality of T quite well, the phasing of the
seasonal cycle of P is fairly reproduced in just the upper, snow-dominated sub-basin.
Model performances degrade in the larger sub-basins that include semiarid areas, because
several GCMs are not able to capture the effect of the North American monsoon. Finally,
the relative performances of the climate models in reproducing the climatologies of P and
T are quantified to support future impact studies in the basin.
ContributorsGautam, Jenita (Author) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018